How to beat the All Blacks - by Ireland

History was made in Chicago this week, initially by the Cubs finally winning the World Series. However a few days later Ireland did something even more unexpected and beat the team that seemed simply unbeatable over the summer. So how did Ireland achieve something no one else has come close to doing in over a year? There were five areas which gave them the result craved for 111 years, and the Lions coaches will do well to study this match extensively before next summer.

Kicking

Murray's kicking was exemplary.

Quite simply it was a masterclass. Nothing else. Jonny Sexton and Connor Murray were executing the correct kicks at the exact right time, with the perfect precision. The half backs made their cases for the Lions shirts and look to be almost confirmed for the plane now. Murray especially was exceptional with his pressure releasing kicks from Ireland's 22 achieving brilliant distance while simultaneously going out of play and denying the chance for the All Blacks to counter attack. Sexton aided his brilliant scrum half, with perfectly weighted kicks to chase, and genius kicks in behind which allowed Irish chasers to put pressure on the All Black back three.

They weren't the only ones seeming to have a golden day with the boot, Zebo, Trimble, and Rob Kearney all had superb days at fielding and returning kicks. Trimble made one brilliant clearance kick after a turnover in their 22, and Zebo made the ultimately crucial kick that lead to Henshaw's try which sealed the game for the men in green. When you've got not one, not even two players, but an entire backline capable of putting in intelligent and well executed kicks you know you can put teams under immense pressure.

The Kiwi's deployed their two big running wingers hoping that they'd be able to run over the smaller Irish backline, but that exposed them to Ireland's exceptional kicking game. I will not be surprised to see Israel Dagg returned to the starting lineup in an effort to counter-act Ireland's kicking game, come the return fixture in Dublin on the 19th of November. 

Defence

To a man the Irish were brilliant in defence, utterly committed, brilliantly organised and exemplary in their use of the choke tackle to kill off any New Zealand attacking speed. Apart from two very well cut lines by Dane Coles and Barrett (the younger) during the second half, and one well executed move in the first half, New Zealand rarely threatened to penetrate the green wall. 

Ireland's choke tackle utterly destroyed any All Black
breakdown speed.

It was a stark contrast to the apathetic defensive performance delivered by Wales a few hours earlier. Each Irish player was truly focused and dedicated to the suffocating defensive pressure. The line speed was brilliant, while still maintaining solidity and denying any holes for the Kiwi attackers to
exploit. This meant that often the spread out All Black attack often ended up isolated during the initial stages of the collision, with often two or more Irish defenders getting in under the ball and wrapping up the ball carrier. 

The All Black's are famed for their incredible ruck speed allowing them to send wave after wave of attack until the opposition defence is stretched to breaking. The Irish knew they didn't posses the traditional "openside" skills to slow down rucks, but what they did have was a well drilled ability of the choke tackle. New Zealand players often end up hitting the tackle on their own, but the speed of their support means they don't get isolated. But when the defence isn't looking to chop you to the ground and instead wrap you up, you need your support directly on your shoulder to make sure you get to ground. 

It was genius from Andy Farrell as defence coach to realise this area to exploit.

Replacements

So often teams stand up to the All Blacks for 50-60 minutes, and then collapse as the benches come into play. New Zealand have got a talent pool other nations can only dream of, as such they can maintain the quality on the pitch with fresh legs and put teams to the sword. The Irish substitutes however continued the sheer effort, and the skill level, of their counterparts as they came on.

Special mentions go to Josh van der Flier who probably came on much sooner than he expected - due to a nasty injury to Jordi Murphy - and became a real nuisance at the breakdown. And Joey Carbery who had the unenvious task of trying to match the quality of Jonny Sexton with still 20 minutes on the clock. He did so splendidly, continuing the precise kicking and assured presence of his Leinster team mate. But to a man ever member of the Irish bench knew their responsibility as they came on, to maintain the intensity and ferocity that their team mates had been showcasing from the start. And they didn't disappoint.

When you can rely on your fresh legs to make a real impact and slot seamlessly into the systems and the speed of the game, you are always going to be a top level threat, because you can maintain intensity for the full 80 minutes. Something a lot of teams struggle to do - despite the amount of conditioning work done in the Northern Hemisphere.

Joey Carbery was a calm and assured presence when he came on for Sexton, exactly what Ireland needed at the time.

The Set Piece

Over the last few years - under Steve Hansen - the All Blacks have become famed for their set piece efficiency as well as their attacking class. With the likes of Kieran Read, Sam Whitelock and Brodie Retallick being lethal at the lineout in securing quick ball for themselves and disrupting the opposition. So too their scrum has become a source of stable possession from which Read and his scrum half can cause havoc with opposition defence. 

Retallick was missed.

For the game in Chicago the Kiwi's were without both Retallick and Whitelock and it showed. With Kaino - a blindside - having to play lock they really struggled to win their own ball, and Ireland had an easy ride at securing their own lineout possession. Ireland scored two tries thanks to driving maul successes and it played a massive role in their eventual victory.

The key thing Ireland did though was not just securing their own ball, but actually causing chaos with New Zealand's lineouts. New Zealand lost their first two lineouts, and very rarely had clean possession the rest of the match. The likes of Devin Toner and Jamie Heaslip caused real problems in the air for Dane Coles. As such the Kiwi's couldn't attack with their usual speed and shift the point of collision beyond the gain line, something that is fundamental to the way they play.

Willingness to Attack

For the first few years under Joe Schmidt it was rare to see Ireland score tries, they were hugely successful but it came about largely from an superb kicking game putting the opposition under pressure and winning kickable penalties, while denying their opponent any field position. While the threads of that game plan were still present with their kicking strategy, Ireland threw the points plan out the window and went out to score tries.

It's a long touted caveat on how to beat the All Blacks, score tries. Ireland heard the call and did it their way. They got into the right field positions, via their kicking game, and then made the pressure count. Driving maul, cut back angles, forward carries, simple effective rugby. But they also looked to play from their own half when they saw the chance, Jonny Sexton looping his players in classic style to spread the play. It was brilliant simple, well trained, execution of skills. Playing with confidence and knowing how they were meant to play meant that they knew and understood how there were likely to make gains and score the tries they needed.

Joe Schmidt out thought Steve Hansen in Chicago, his tactics and the way they combined was simply world class.

Each of these things were crucial to Ireland's dramatic victory against New Zealand, and it is a testament to the coaching staff at how all of them combined together to create a complete performance that no team would have been capable of beating. The lineout disruption meant that the defence could pressure in the first phase. The kicking game meant that the All Black were under pressure constantly, and Ireland could attack in the right areas. The replacements could play the game as good as the starting players and the pressure remained. Everything game together to produce of the best performances I've seen in a long time.

The blue-print has been written, the real test if it works again in Dublin, if so the Lions know how they're going to need to play come June.

England's Injury Curse continues

England have been striking gold again and again in 2016, but right now they'll be wishing for a gold lamp with a genie inside. Over the last month there hasn't been a week gone by which an England player hasn't suffered a long term injury ruling them out of the Autumn Internationals.

Eddie Jones can't rely on Itoje to fill the void anymore, what has happened to England's player pool?

For a team like England a length injury list isn't usually an issue. England has - officially - the biggest player base in the world, and one of the most competitive leagues in which these players can prove their value. However this is a one of a kind injury list, excluding the likes of Anthony Watson, George Kruis and Dylan Hartley, pretty much all of the injuries have been in the back row. Just a glance at the list and you realise the depth of the issue facing Eddie Jones: James Haskell; Sam Jones; Jack Clifford; Mike Williams; Maro Itoje. The main thing all those players posses is the ability to play openside flanker. I can't remember a similar injury list for an international side so dedicated to a single shirt.

Sam Jones is unfortunate, was my pick for the 7 shirt.

At the beginning of the season it was known that James Haskell would be missing the Autumn series, but England looked in good shape. Jack Clifford & Sam Jones were playing superbly for their respective sides. Both players filled the void left by the experience Haskell in very similar fashion, aggressive in the contact, committed in making the hard yards, and both with a developing ability at the breakdown (something that Haskell himself was still working on). Clifford was the first to drop out of the running picking up an injury while still with Harlequins, but no one was worried Sam Jones was the rising star and would just have to don the jersey earlier than anticipated. However after a mishap at a judo session with England, Jones broke his ankle and was out of the running.

With the two preferred options out, pundits were left considering the remaining options. Would Robshaw return to the jersey which haunted him last year? Would Eddie Jones through the exciting - yet inexperienced - Mike Williams of Leicster into the Test arena? Would Super Maro be shunted to the backrow?

Even Robshaw think's he is a 6.

Eddie Jones has long said Robshaw is a 6, not a 7, so it is unlikely for him to be moved from the position he has flourished under with Jones. The Mike Williams option was risky to start, but is now a non-option after he picked up an injury as well. Until yesterday it looked like all the world that Maro Itoje would be conducting his work for England in the backrow. That was until he picked up a hand injury playing for Saracens that has put him out for six weeks. It's one calamity after another in England's backrow. Add in the the loss of their other Grand Slam winning lock of George Kruis and suddenly the England pack is nothing like the one which completed a series white-wash against the Wallabies.

Who plays against South Africa?

So with all these players out, what are the options for for Eddie Jones and his coaching staff as they look to complete a perfect calendar year. Thankfully their back-line can remain largely consistent, only the wondrous finishing ability of Watson is missing, and the have plenty of players lining up to compete for the jersey. The front row again remains largely consistent, Mako Vunipola has been exceptional for Saracens, captain Hartley has returned for Saints and should be fully mobile come November 12th, and Dan Cole is the stand out tight-head in England.

So filling in the injury crisis, what to do? Billy Vunipola is a shoe in for No. 8, there is no better option for England and his role as a vice captain is critical. As mentioned a dozen times by head coach Jones, Robshaw is a blindside flanker and as such should remain there and continue to do the hard work he is so good at. Losing Kruis and Itoje initially appears catastrophic in the engine room, but there is a wealth of experienced replacements: Launchbury, Lawes, Attwood to name but a few. Which just leaves the age old question of who should play 7 for England?

Long shot? Armitage
return?

Teimana Harrison is the only candidate with international experience, although he hasn't exactly impressed the coaches when he has played. Matt Kvesic provides a different sort of openside to the kind Jones has used so far. Going against my opinions another option is to bring Wasps' bruising ball
carrier Nathan Hughes in at blindside flanker and shift Robshaw back to 7, I worry a little it would create an imbalance in the backrow - but desperate times call for desperate measures. Speaking of desperate times, could this be the long awaited time for the "exceptional circumstances" law to come into effect? With the likes of Sam Underhill (soon to be returning for the Ospreys) and Steffon Armitage potentially getting a phone call from Eddie Jones?

It will be very interesting to see the side that England can name come November 12th for their first game against the Springboks.

The Problems for Rob Howley

Wales' first fixture of the Autumn Internationals is still two weeks away, but that doesn't mean interim Head Coach Rob Howley hasn't got a few head scratching conundrums to sort out before his team will be ready to face Australia on November 5th.

What players are available?

This is probably the biggest story at the moment, with half a dozen different stories and decisions going around as to who will and won't be available. Through combination of players still coming back from injuries and those playing outside of Wales it is surprisingly difficult to predict what Wales team will be running out of the tunnel. 

Faletau is not expected back until the Argentina game at best.

In terms of injuries the two most notable are Talupe Faletau & Sam Warburton. Captain Warburton was expecting to return this weekend, but has been handed another set back after fracturing a cheek-bone three weeks ago. All this means he is unlikely to be match fit in time for the first Test. Faletau is a different story altogether, having played only 12 minutes of rugby all season, getting injured in his first match for Bath. He is guaranteed not to be fit in time for the first game, although the coaching staff are hoping he'll be ready for the final two matches.

Halfpenny is back
after a year out.

With Faletau missing Wales are sorely lacking, it was a chance for Ross Moriarty to show his international ability at the base of a scrum. Sadly it looks like his chance will be blocked by the upper echelons of the English Premiership. The story has been a continual round-a-bout with the availability of non-English international players having no clear answer. Initially the PRL had stated simply only English players would be released for games outside the international test window. The Welsh camp responded saying they expected their players to be available for their first test - which is outside the three week window. This prompted a flurry of statements from clubs, players and coaches about what they thought was the right answer. At the time of publishing we are still no closer to
knowing if the likes of: Moriarity, Roberts, North and Faletau will be available for the Wales v Australia game or not. 

As a small piece of positive news for Howley it does seem that Toulon star Leigh Halfpenny will be available for selection as per his contract with the French giants.

Style of Play

Wales went to New Zealand during the summer with an expansive game style designed to take on the world champions on the score board. Looking to score tries and put the Kiwi's under pressure on their own park. The question is are Wales - under Howley - going to look to bed in this new system and try and work out the kinks; or are they going to revert to "Warrenball" and what they know inside out in an effort to win the games before the World Cup pools are decided in April next year.

Williams shone with Wales' new system, in New Zealand.

For me I think the correct response would be to continue the style that worked so well - one test
excluding - in New Zealand. It made Wales look dangerous, they scored some great tries and performed better than both Australia and South Africa have managed against the All Blacks this year. The system in itself is not too disimilar to the 2-4-2 system that the Kiwi's operate under, and it's blatantly obvious how effective that has been against the other Southern Hemisphere sides this year. This sort of positive, expansive, expressive rugby is what will get the fans on board and could yield the results the entire nation craves.

Obviously the risk with that option is that Wales do not have the same skill set, speed of thought or level of ability as the All Blacks and are likely to make mistakes which good teams will punish them for. Australia showed how to exploit mistakes when they faced Argentina at Twickenham - scoring all their tries through Argentinian errors. Mistakes are apart of rugby, and for me the rewards far outweigh the potential risks, and if this is the sort of rugby that Wales want to be playing by the World Cup in Japan they need to start it now.

Selection Issues

This one can't be resolved until the other two problems have been dealt with, but it is certainly an interesting conundrum. For the majority of the "Gatland Era" the Wales team has practically picked itself: Roberts & Davies in the centres; Lydiate, Warburton, & Faletau in the backrow; Halfpenny at fullback. The reason for this was because Wales picked the players that allowed them to play "Warrenball" so effectively. The centres were big and strong, the back row efficient in defence and at the breakdown, and the lethal goal kicking of Halfpenny giving them the points. However currently it looks like three of those players will be unavailable for the first game, and that's before you even start to think about whether these players are right for the new Welsh game.

Tipuric has been outstanding for the Osprey's this season.

Under the expansive game the likes of Scott Williams and Justin Tipuric suddenly have a lot more reason to be selected - not that many supporters didn't think they should be in the team already. Williams and Tipuric showcase a lot more pace and ball skills than their counter parts of Roberts and Warburton. Obviously the issue with Tipuric vs Warburton is that one of them is the captain of the team. This could potentially have a very simple fix, with Warburton shifting across the scrum to the blindside. He has the necessary physicality to operate in that position effectively, in fact he spends a lot of his time playing for the Cardiff Blues in the 6 shirt. 

There are similar competitions across the park: Halfpenny or Liam Williams at fullback? Biggar or Anscombe at fly-half? Bradley Davies or Charteris alongside Alun Wyn Jones? It is a glut of problems, positive problems because which coach isn't thankful for the strength in depth Wales seem to possess at this time, but make the wrong call and it could end up costing Wales a lot. I do feel there is no better time than for Wales to pick players on style and form over their previous performances, although the pragmatist inside me wouldn't change everything at once.

Wales' strength in depth has really developed over the last few years, it has given the coaches a lot
 of decisions to make.

Wales XV vs. Australia (Nov 5th 14:30)

15 - Leigh Halfpenny

14 - Liam Williams

13 - Jonathan Davies

12 - Scott Williams

11 - Hallam Amos

10 - Dan Biggar

9 - Rhys Webb

1 - Gethin Jenkins

2 - Ken Owens

3 - Samson Lee

4 - Alun Wyn Jones

Davies & Williams get a chance to take their partnership
to the international scene.

5 - Bradley Davies

6 - Sam Warburton (C)

7 - Justin Tipuric

8 - Dan Baker

This team is picked on the belief that the players based in England will not be available. Liam Williams plays wing but given the license to roam like Shane Williams used to have, Halfpenny returns to his famed 15 jersey to offer solidity in the backfield, and Amos holds the jersey until North returns. Davies & Williams continue their centre partnership, with Williams given a chance to stake his claim over Roberts. The life long friends Biggar & Webb continue at half-back, Biggar especially is under pressure to perform under the new system and attack the line, Gareth Anscombe is waiting in the wings. 

The front row offers both set piece solidity, and mobility around the park, although Ken Owens has struggled at little at the lineout this season. Jones and Davies pair up in the second row to offer some ballast and strength in the scrum, and both are capable of passing the ball surprisingly well. Warburton shifts to 6 to accommodate the sheer class of Tipuric at openside flanker - who has been simply superb all season in attack and defence. The final choice is at No. 8, with Wales without Faletau and Moriarty it is a chance for Dan Baker to take his regional form into the red of Wales.