Wednesday, 3 September 2014

Guinness Pro 12 Season Preview

Last season the - former - Rabo Direct Pro 12, was dominated by the Irish provinces, three of the four play-off teams coming from the Emerald Isle. It seems safe to say that little is going to change this year, Leinster still one of the most impressive teams in Europe, Munster are a legendary team that has always been a top player every season, and Ulster remain one of the most improved sides in the Celtic nations in recent years. Last year's beaten finalists however will be competing strongly against the Provinces, Glasgow Warriors are for certain the most improved team in the Celtic League since the World Cup, and with their surprising number of non-Scottish players it means they perform at a constantly high level throughout the season.

Now let's study each team in a little bit of detail:

Benetton Treviso (Italy)
They had a disappointing finish to the end of last season, having come so far in recent seasons, coming 7th two seasons ago. Never-the-less Treviso are certainly a team that even the top teams need to keep an eye on. Incredibly strong and competitive on their home turf, and if they can turn the Stadio Comunale di Monigo into a fortress, then they stand a very good chance of finish in the hallowed top 7 finish for European qualification. Their squad holds plenty of Italian internationals: Campagnaro, Zanni, and Esposito, all exude to level quality, and provided they can make the most of these players a fair few away games much yield points for Treviso. They should really be targeting the likes of Edinburgh, Dragons and Connacht for away victories.
Last Season Finish: 11th
Predicted Finish: 9th

Cardiff Blues (Wales)
It's safe to say the capital region in Wales had a up and down season last year. Certainly at the beginning of the season they were out of sorts, without their Lions they certainly looked a weak outfit. This problem could occur again for the Blues at the beginning of this season, Halfpenny having left, Warburton not available for selection due to the political problems in the Welsh rugby game, this just leaves try machine Cuthbert to steady the ship. However they have made a couple of good signings, firstly in Gareth Anscombe able to play fullback and fly-half, he has shown his ability in the Super Rugby league for the Cheifs, and is being looked at by Wales head coach Gatland.  Not to mention the Lions tight-head Adam Jones, giving them the full Lions front-row from the South Africa tour. If Blues are to have a strong season they need to be able to cope without their international players, they should win a few games, but they may struggle to compete both in Europe and in the league and may have to focus on the league. They should focus on avoiding losses to Treviso and Zebre that they suffered last season and aim to beat a couple of the local rivals, and they could find themselves competing for Europe, and with a Lions front-row it's possible to give them a good platform to use their great back-line.
Last Season Finish: 7th
Predicted Finish: 5th

Connacht (Ireland)
A team often overlooked by many people, yet it's worth noting that at home they are certainly tough to beat. They are a very good team in awful weather conditions, their stadium sits on the west side of Ireland, meaning strong winds and often rain, allows them to understand how to play the weather conditions. However because of this, they have never been famed for an exciting brand of rugby and so often fail to obtain the bonus points when they do win. Still they will win a fair few games especially at home, and some teams could face slip up should the weather deteriorate. They will always be over looked in favour of their neighbours, but good teams wont take them lightly.
Last Season Finish: 10th
Predicted Finish: 11th

Edinburgh (Scotland)
I never know what quite to make of Edinburgh, they always seem to be the team which isn't considered a weak team, they have plenty of international players in their ranks, but they never seem to compete very well across the season. In previous years they have had Tim Visser topping the try scoring table year-in-year-out, although since he joined up with Scotland for international duty, he hasn't quite been able to show the same form he had. Should Visser find his form again and the likes of David Denton and Matt Scott do the work to give Visser oppotunities then Edinburgh could prove to be a troublesome opponent. However a large change needs to happen, other teams have progressed in recent season and Edinburgh need to do so too or be left behind.
Last Season Finish: 8th
Predicted Finish: 10th

Glasgow Warriors (Scotland)
Arguably the most improved team of recent years, the Warriors have risen to be a major force in the Pro 12 league. However their European exploits have a little to be desired never progressing out of the group stage. This season could prove to be a challenging one, no doubt striving for their first league win, but with the newly redesigned European tournament giving them a chance to progress in the cross boarder competition. The real question is whether they have the squad depth and ability to compete across both competitions and still continue to improve as they have been doing. A top four finish in the league is almost a dead certainty, whether this leads then on to silverwear is a different matter.
Last Season Finish: 2nd (beaten finalists)
Predicted Finish: 3rd (beaten semi-finalists)

Leinster (Ireland)
The undeniable celtic champions. Peerless season through season,  has seen them lift trophies again and again. The Dublin province will aim to obtain a record hat-trick title in successive years, and it's hard to see them failing. Even after they lost their talismanic fly-half Jonny Sexton to the wealthy french they carried on winning, and routed Glasgow in last years final. Perhaps though the loss of the legendary Brian O'Driscoll could affect them even more, certainly the loss of such talismanic figures has scuppered many other teams (Shane Williams and the Ospreys, Newcastle and Jonny Wilkinson). But still they survived losing the great BOD early in last year's final, and have endured the change of coach expertly too. The main squad is still present from last season, and the return of the terrifying Sean O'Brian will only strengthen their all ready formidable pack. Two excellent fly-halfs (Gopperth and Maddigan) continue to push each other to improve and claim the 10 shirt. Mayhaps the only weakness I can point out is the real lack of a prolific winger/try scorer to worry the opposition - the likes of Visser, Bowe, Cuthbert - but it never seems to have halted their progress before. They're sure to compete across both league and european cups this year and very well at that.
Last Season Finish: 1st (Champions)
Predicted Finish: 1st (Champions)

Munster (Ireland)
There has been a change in Munster that last couple of years, with major players having called time on their careers it has lead to a change of ethos at the club. Gone are the days of grinding out wins via a combination of O'Gara's boot and O'Connoll's pack. In its place an exciting crop of backline talent has been unearthed and is beginning to make its presence felt. Realising the need for bonus points, last season Munster coaches attempt to move away from knarled forwards retaining the ball, and instead towards a more exapnsive style of gameplay. It looked a little off last season, still in need of some work, but it did pose problems for numerous teams, getting the Irish team all the way to the semi-finals of the Heineken Cup. And with a backline including the likes of Zebo, Earls and Laulala, there is no reason why that style shouldnt work to terrifyig effect. Add in the leadership qualities of O'Connoll, O'Mahony and Connor Murray at 9, and you have a fearmous prospect. The ability of Munster to perform does come down to whether or not they successfully excute the new style for this season. Then there is the prospect of Europe, Munster have always been very strong contenders in Europe, perhaps more so than in the Celtic League, the new competition could draw their focus.
Last Season Finish: 4th (beaten semi-finalists)
Predicted Finish: 4th (beaten semi-finalists)

Newport-Gwent Dragons (Wales)
It's a difficult season to sum up for the Dragons last year. They started insanely well, showing form, ability and style that hadnt existed in the so called "4th region". So much in fact that for a vast part of the season they were the 2nd best region. However the lack of squad depth slowly began to show as the season wore on and the early promise ended showing for little. However head coach, Lyn Jones is not one to give up, under his guidance two of the bggest rivals in Welsh Rugby formed a region that won numerous league titles.  The Dragons can only improve after last season, whether that is enough to overtake the other regions we shall wait and see, but the spark is there. New signings could make a largw difference, bringing in the quality of Lee Byrne (Wales and Lions fullback) and old crowd favourite Aled Brew could see - the relatively unknown - backline come to life. With both players unlikely to be called up to the Wales squad, they should form a strong powerful consistancy when other teams lose theirs for internationals. Team up with the surprisingly good half-pack partnership of Rees and Tovey, and the Dragons could pose some major problems. There still lie weaknesses up front, the front row has never been a fearsome prospect, and while the back five have the veteran Coombes and the undeniable natural talent of Talupe Faletau when they leave for Wales duty you can sense the fragility in the Eastern region. Even so, if they can make Rodney Parade strong, pick up bonus points as much as possible and pull of a shock win every now and again (as they achieved last season) they might cause an upset in the regions.
Last Season Finish: 9th
Predicted Finish: 8th

Ospreys (Wales)
Only Welsh region to win the trophy more than once, first team to win four trohpies, and the only team to beat Leinster at the RDS in the knockout stages. Yet despite all the accolades they have always felt a little shakey, even during the "Galacticos" years when they supplied countless players to the Welsh set up, you never felt that they were as good as they should be. There has been a change since those times, the management looking to downsize the pay grade, look to local talent and the uncovered gems from other smaller nations. And it has in some aspects turned out quite well players like Tipuric, Hassler and Matthew Morgan lit up the Liberty Stadium at times last year. However despite chip-kicks from flankers and 5'8" flyhalfs running 90m for tries, there has been a noted lack of threat from the Ospreys against the bigger teams (and some of the minnows). Its possible that sice the retirement of Shane Williams the Ospreys haven't quite figured out what to do if their in a tight spot, the Wels Wizard was always the panic button. While they are not necessarily missing the tries the little man used to bring with, big bruising, Canadian Hassler topping the try scoring last year, you do feel the imagination is lacking. Sadly the one person who had begun to show the "eye for a gap" will be missing from the early part of the new season, Ashley Beck having undergone hip surgery. Also missing will be the two openside flankers who worked to terrifying efficiency together last year Tipuric and Lewis as both recover from injuries. Not to mention the loss of players like Adam Jones and Matthew Morgan could impact massivly on the quality across the field. It will be a tough start to the new campaign for the Ospreys, but with the peerless boot of Biggar and the leadership of Wyn-Jones  they should be able to hold their own until the cavalry arrive.
Last Season Finish: 5th
Predicted Finish: 6th

Scarlets (Wales)
It might be harsh to claim the Scarlets are a club that live on past glories, but in recent years they have certainly not shown the attacking class by which they old Llanelli were famous for. In previous years most of the fault was placed with the front five not giving the backline a stable platform by which to run their game. However more recently their front five has become a fearsome beast,  two international tight heads compete for the starting jersey, add in one of the best ball carrying hookers in the game (Ken Owens) and finish it off with a superb lock in Jake Ball it is one of strongest in the Pro12. The back row doesnt let up either wth Shingler and Turnball proving to be very worthwhile at both lineout and breakdown. Add the new signing in Chris Hala'ufia for a terrifying ball carrier to complete the backrow. The scrumhalfs have been the pinnacle of 9 play in Wales over the last two seasons, Gareth Davies even topping the try scoring charts for the whole league last season. Its a struggle to fgure out why the Scarlets havent succeeded more. That is until you reach the midfield, the quality centres of Scott Williams and Jonathan Davies rarely played together last year due to injuries, and will no longer do so for the Scarlets. Perhaps the biggest flaw is at fly-half, Priestland. Long maligned by the Welsh public for his appearances in the national shirt, he has never entirely rediscovered his World Cup form, panicked under pressure and horribly judged kicks sank the Welsh team to worrying levels. Hopefully he will find the gainline play by which Wales tore apart teams at the NZ World Cup. Otherwise a backline full of talented and terrifying players will be massively underutilised. The likes of jinking Jordan Williams, sprinter Kristan Phillips, magician Regan King, as well as Scott Williams, Liam Williams, Harry Robinson and Tagicakibau. In fact I will say that the only reason Scarlets will not achieve a top four finish is Rhys Priestland. For Scarlets to perform as they should either he needs to find form and consistently, or he needs to be dropped for Steven Shingler. Rumours have it that the new coaching team are looking to bring back the "old Llanelli style"if that is the case (and it is execute well) the Scarlets will be a very tough team to beat. It's a pretty big if though.
Last Season Finish: 6th
Predicted Finish: 7th

Ulster (Ireland)
Ulster are the perennial runner up, the miss congeniality of european rugby. Despite this they are always in the mix to claim trophies both Celtic and European year in year out. A strong mix of homegrown Irish talent and (primarily) drawn in South African class gives them a constant level of performance even when the internationals are away. It is because of that clever balance across the squad that once again Ulster will be competing for the trophy, despite the new players across other clubs and threat of increased ability from rivals. The other major asset in Ulsters favour is the fact that they are not overly reliant on a single player, but can still look to individuals to provide game winning moments. Bowe and Trimble provide a strong presence outwide both capable of scoring and settig up tries with predatory regularity. At half-back you see the old hand the the youthful talent combining week in week out between Pienar and Jackson. The Ravenhill crowd may perhaps miss the old favourite of John Aofa (who has moved to Glouchester) and this could potentially weaken the scrum platform a little, but the remaining stregth in the pack will compensate easily.
Last Season Finish: 3rd (beaten semi-finalists)
Predicted Finish: 2nd (beaten finalists)

Zebre (Italy)
Bottom for two seasons. Not much more needs to be said of the Italian outfit. Certainly the weakest in the league, and lack both real talent and squad depth across the park. Despite this they still managed to pull off a couple of shock wins last season, beating both the Ospreys and the Blues, as well as running numerous other teams close. It is still highly unlikely that they will achieve a consistent level of victories and/or bonus points to merit climbing from the bottom of the table. But with strong home support they might just claim enough wins at home against the weaker teams to climb into 11th place, but I find it unlikely.
Last Season Finish: 12th
Predicted Finish: 12th

The season starts Friday night at the Liberty Stadium, as the Ospreys host Treviso. Come back for more looking at the tactics, gameplay and styles of the teams and their effectiveness as the season progresses. The Aviva Premiership will also be looked at as we build up towards the World Cup in 13 months time.

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