The Dragon beats the 'Bok

Wales 12-6 South Africa, it makes easy reading for every Welshman. In fact the fifty thousand who were in the ground will be able to echo the age old saying "I was there", the day Wales beat a Southern Hemisphere side. It certainly wasn't a game to get the crowd of their seats, filled with brutal collisions instead of sublime tries. It wasn't a complete performance from Gatland's men, with certain areas still needing considerable work, and it wasn't a South Africa worthy of their number two place in the world but a win's a win.

There are no tries to analyse this week, but Wales did have some half chances. Most of these came from superb use of the hard running Jamie Roberts, or more precisely not using him, and it's been a trait of this Autumn. For a long time Wales have been reprimanded for their over use of Jamie Roberts in an attempt to get over the gainline, they still do but they use him more cleverly with better running angles used, Dan Biggar attracting defensive attention and simple switches just to give the big man a better chance to hit a weak shoulder. However what Wales did today was use Roberts - and Jonathan Davies often too - to hold the defence and then spread the ball wide quickly. Crucially we saw Leigh Halfpenny joining the attack outside the 13 channel, giving Wales an extra man in attack and creating the overlap. This tactic directly lead to two 5m lineouts for Wales, of which they failed to capitalise we will come on to that later. It's excellent to see Wales changing their style in the wake of noticeable failures during the 2014 Six Nations, the "Warren-ball" theme is still noticeable but there seems to be more of a willingness to go wide and use the immense threat Wales posses on the flanks. The wide play was diminished as the game went on and the outside backs had to go hunting for the ball, this was one of the major changes that should be noticed, the likes of Cuthbert and North have often been forgotten about as they sit waiting on the wing, Saturday Cuthbert tried his hardest to have an influence on an attritional game and it should be commended. Hopefully George North will take note upon his return and use his considerable ability to truly have an impact on the international stage.

The other major facet of the game upon which Wales will pride themselves after Saturday is their defence. The game was a collage of brutal collisions primarily around the halfway line, as both teams attempted to bust through each other. This was typified by Welsh fly-half Dan Biggar, it is a common sight to see sides attempting to exploit the fly-half channel to gain ground, it's incredibly rare to see a fly-half denying that ground. It was one of many facets that meant Biggar was awarded the man-of-the-match. Biggar complimented his monumental defensive display of 11 tackles, with an eye for
space and the execution to exploit it. Multiple times he planted kicks with precision to allow a superb chase from wingers in an attempt to reclaim the ball, or prevent any sort of South African counter attack. Speaking of gathering kicks, more than once the man threw himself into the air to contest the ball, showing a skill that few other fly-halves have.

Both teams were putting their bodies on the line with both teams desperate to end 2014 with a win, especially as both had had disappointing autumn results. Because of this it was an extremely tight affair with no team really wanting to take unnecessary risks, except for a brief period where Wales attempted a ridiculous fifteen man maul. The battle at the breakdown was in hindsight where the game was won or lost, with two different primary schools of thought as to how win it. South Africa attempted to flood the ruck with three or four players to disrupt the ball for Rhys Webb; they obviously were looking to slow down the Welsh ball which had been a big threat all Autumn. Meanwhile Wales went back to their RWC 2011 formula, with captain Sam Warburton clamping down on as many breakdowns as he could. He had been quoted saying that he had spent three additional days at the training camp, before the other players arrived, receiving intensive strength and conditioning work. It has obviously paid off, able to successfully jackal the ball on multiple occasions and win penalties halting the Springbok advance, but more crucially giving kicking opportunities to Leigh Halfpenny.

There are still notable areas for Wales to work on, most worrying of which is the set piece. After a peerless display by the Welsh forwards against Australia the lineout has fallen apart. In the first half a worrying amount of lineouts were overturned by the brilliant Victor Matfield, not to mention a couple of over thrown lineouts. This once again cost Wales crucial field position and territory are important moments in the match. In fact the moment the team collectively decided to attempt the full team maul, I could have heard the holding of breath in fear of losing the lineout. This insecurity at the lineout begun manifesting itself at the scrum too, as Wales twice lost their own ball due to the hookers reluctance to actually "hook". Securing quick release ball from scrums seems a sensible idea but instead Wales (and many other teams) decided to try and win a penalty at risk of losing the ball, it is daft. These problems at set-piece must be resolved in time for the World Cup, England have an unbeatable lineout system in place, and posses a powerful scrum set up too which gives them solidity upon which to run a game.

Still minor issues aside Wales have finally beaten a Southern Hemisphere side, what they must do now is prove is wasn't a fluke. First up is the Six Nations in nine weeks time, a top three finish is possible and more importantly must be achieved to continue the confidence into RWC 2015. This Wales team has the ability to progress to the knockout stages of the World Cup, yet it will be a difficult road to get there.

Ireland and Scotland are the Definition of Progress

We go into the final weekend of Autumn internationals, however two of the "home nations" have already completed their November campaigns. It was the first set of autumn games for Cotter (Scotland) and Schmidt's (Ireland) second and it is safe to say both have had a very noticeable impact on the fortunes of their respective teams. Looking at the world rankings alone tells you the difference for these two teams, Scotland have held their position in the rankings and closed the gap on those above them, meanwhile Ireland have leapfrogged England and stormed into the coveted top three.

While Ireland's rise to greatness has perhaps been the most well documented Scotland deserved real credit. Vern Cotter after having a summer to experiment with essentially two groups of players, he faced his first match at Murrayfield against a confident Argentina team who had recorded their first win in the Rugby Championship just weeks before. Going into the series it looked like the closest game of the three, and would probably be the match upon which the autumn would be judged upon. As it turned out a Glasgow influenced team took the game to the Puma's incredibly quickly, even after an opening set back the team rallied and scored a myriad of superb tries. Most came from captain and scrum-half Laidlaw acting quickly, it seems that Cotter has given his players the right to play what was in front of them. Gone were the days that Scotland relied on penalties and drop goals to score all their points, instead the ball is put in the hands of the electric Stuart Hogg and lethal finishers Maitland and Seymour, crucially in space to try and crack open the opponents and score some tries.

What can't be ignored is the work the forwards are doing now, providing the lively and intelligent half-backs (Laidlaw and Russell) with quick ball on the front foot. A back row which is carrying extremely hard, directly at the opposition, along with serious hard grafting locks in the Gray brothers has changed the outlook of the Scottish threat. A lot of attention has been placed on the brand new pitch installed at Murrayfield, after the fiasco that was the 6 Nations, and its affect has been noticed. The pitch is a lot firmer allowing the quick players to actually use their speed, but it also allows the breakdown to avoid being bogged down allowing the more exciting breed of rugby to be used. Although the real test was to come, with New Zealand coming North, and while they came with a second string team New Zealand are New Zealand. The Cotter system worked equally well against the world's best, the strong forward carrying took a serious toll on an uncharacteristically imprecise All Blacks side. In the end replacements rescued the number one side. In the end it was a loss, which was always expected but it was the style by which they went down which showed the progress being made.

All of this culminated in a third and final game against Tonga, a team which they famously lost to two years ago. There were wrongs to right, and after a tight first half Scotland looked to be struggling to break down the islanders. However the free flowing attack returned in the second half and they crossed the white wash multiple times to complete their Autumn on a serious high. Overall Scotland won two games out of three which was the best they realistically could have hoped for, but the manner in which they won them is worth much more than the wins themselves. Looking ahead to the World Cup, they stand a serious chance of progressing to the knockout rounds with only Samoa to over come for a second place in the pools. If the progress continues South Africa could be for the taking too.

So we have a new number three team in the world. Ireland sit at the top of the Northern Hemisphere game having claimed not one, but two SANZAR scalps in November. We had seen the beginnings of this Ireland team at the end of last years Autumn Internationals, when the men in green came agonisingly close to beating New Zealand, and when they won the 6 Nations earlier this year to send of the legendary Brian O'Driscoll. However the form we have seen now is another step up, it is totally different from previous tests. Joe Schmidt takes a very different approach to coaching from practically everyone else in the game, he is a tactical mastermind that is capable of pinpointing an oppositions true weakness and instructing his players precisely how to exploit it. It's rare that a coach spends extensive effort focusing on each individual players role on the field at specific moments in the match, but it seems it is a system that the Irish players are taking on exclusively. None more than Jonathan Sexton, the fly-half has an unparalleled ability to run a game plan to the letter with almost perfect execution. He is able to play the territory game expertly, bring his backs into the game at the perfect moment, utilise his forwards when it's not on out wide, not to mention he has a knack for scoring tries himself by attacking the line. If he's not the best fly-half in the world, then he is certainly the best in the Northern Hemisphere.

Ireland's success however is not purely down to one coach and his playmaker, the work of the forwards this autumn has been superb. Paul O'Connell has been superhuman against everyone he's come across, rampaging across the pitch, tireless in defence. Meanwhile Peter O'Mahony has been his usual destructive self at the breakdown, and the lineout has operated at expert efficiency. The moment of the series for the pack must have been against the marauding South African, where they circumvented African muscle with Irish intelligence. Executing the fade away at the driving maul allowing them to sack it before it can move, perfect combination of Schmidt's analysis and hard effort in training. This sincere symbiosis between staff and players is the foundation upon which Ireland will mount a challenge for the World Cup, if there is anything for them to work on it would be to potentially fill the missing creative void left by Brian O'Driscoll. The threat on the wings is well documented with Tommy Bowe and Simon Zebo lethal finishers, but with the precise layout of the game set out is there enough head's up rugby to be played and an intelligent enough centre partnership to unleash the dangerous wide men?

Predicted 6 Nations Finishes
Ireland: 1st
Scotland: 4th

Lethal All Blacks punish gallant Wales

So... At a glance Wales once again were leading against a Southern Hemisphere with less than fifteen minutes remaining. By full time the scoreline read against the men in red. It was a very different performance to that against Australia two weeks ago, Wales running a furious defence to prevent any continuity for the All Blacks. Lydiate and Hibbard crunching all manner of players around the breakdown, while man of the match Roberts ran an almost perfect blitz system with reinstated Davies. At the breakdown the legendary McCaw was prevented from messing up Wales's ball by superb support play, but also a lot of praise should go to Wayne Barnes in the middle. One of the few games of rugby which had no moments of real contentious decisions, bar except one moment between Dane Coles and Rhys Webb which was handled exquisitely by the Englishman.

As a Welshman reliving the game in a summary is slightly soul crushing so I shall keep it brief. An incredibly tight first half ended with each team on three points, it was likely to be down to the first score of the second half to decide the game. New Zealand struck first, and struck early, with Conrad Smith overcoming the rapid Welsh blitz via a sublime reverse pass to allow Savea to break the cover tackles and score in the corner. Wales scored their own try quickly in return, beautiful play from inform scrum-half Webb allowed Faletau to thunder towards the try line, who then returned the favour with an out of the tackle offload as Webb dived over for this second international try. New Zealand's second try came from another method of avoiding the blitz defence, a low flat cross-kick from Barrett turned Conrad Smith into supplier once again, as he slipped the ball back inside to allow Kaino to cross. A penalty allowed Wales to take the lead at a crucial time, something other teams have been failing to do against the All Blacks this year, although if anything it seemed to enrage the southern hemisphere team even more. Three tries in the final stages of the game gave the scoreboard a significantly less respectable outcome, a chip kick, charge down and another cross field kick put the game out of reach.

For almost seventy minutes, Wales stood toe to toe with the best in the world. It is surely a massive testament to Gatland's team that they prevented any New Zealand threat in the first half with a oppressive defence. Looking back at the game now it really did hinge on bounce of a ball, after Halfpenny got completely fooled by the chip through by Beauden Barrett, the game turned. Wales suddenly felt that with ten minutes left they had to push the game and suddenly everything changed. The All Blacks sensed blood and kicked into another gear, suddenly Wales couldn't deal with it and the opposition had figured out how to unlock the Welsh blitz. Commendations for the Wales position at 70 minutes should go to Lydiate, Hibbard and Jamie Roberts, but personally the major change to the Welsh system was the return of Jonathan Davies. The system by which Wales live by is a very aggressive blitz, focused on Davies reading the trajectory of the play and stopping - generally - the outside centre from making ground. Despite some highly talented centres available to Wales, no one has the same reading of the opponents attack as "Foxy" and it caused considerable problems for the All Blacks trying to get outside the red-shirted defenders.

Offensively Wales offered less than they did against Australia, but still provided moments to get the crowd off their seats. In the first half a crunching hit dislodged the ball in the Welsh 22, and George North had to either gather the ball of connect with it with his foot and he was almost certainly in for a try. It elude him. Another moment Sam Warburton collected a messy ball after a mid-air contest, and burst through the crowd, if it had been the other way around surely it would have resulted in a try. However New Zealand possess a distinct ability to support the runner, Wales did not, no real options surrounded the captain and one (somewhat dubious) forward pass later the chance was gone. Never the less Wales has certainly altered their game plan somewhat, while the hard running gainline battle fought by Jamie Roberts and Alun Wyn Jones is still prominent it is more effective. Instead of Roberts being asked to crash into multiple players straight on, Biggar has taken on himself to draw attention from the defence, and Roberts has begun charging with intelligent angles. There is certainly more willingness to play with vision and risk, the ability to play with heads up rugby and go against "Warrenball" stems from an extremely confident half-back partnership which is thriving on the international stage. It was noticeable that Wales' tempo decreased when Webb had to leave the field, and when James Hook was introduced Wales seemed to lack more composure. This is the nine and ten to lead Wales to the World Cup.

There are problems that Wales must address before they face the #2 side in the world next weekend. Paramount of which is the lineout, after a perfect game against Australia, the last two weeks have brought to light some problems. Wales look to consistently attempt the risky throw to the tail, and while it can bring some big rewards, against New Zealand it cost them a lot of possession in important areas. New Zealand are a team which almost always come away from the opponents 22 with points, in comparison far to often Wales gave the lineout ball back to the All Blacks who could then clear their lines. The worry with this for next weekend is South Africa are widely feared as the best set piece operators in the game, and Wales are losing their first choice hooker to club commitments and Scott Baldwin's throwing was exposed to terrifying effect against Fiji who are not a major lineout threat. The question is can he - and his jumpers - fix the issues over the week before they face the likes of Matfield and Etzebeth?

Other than the set piece issues on Saturday there was one other telling moment which changed the fortunes of the Welsh team (that was in their control). At 60 minutes Gatland and co. made three changes to the pack: Hibbard, Ball and Lydiate all being replaced. Some argument could be made that these were made in an attempt to bring about a change to the lineout with 6'10'' Charteris and athletic Tipuric coming on to compete in the air. It did little to help, and actually caused detriment to the Welsh play around the park. With Lydiate and Hibbard going off a lot of the ferocity in defence was lost and New Zealand suddenly weren't under as much pressure with ball in hand. Meanwhile Jake Ball (and Hibbard) had gone through some serious graft through the game securing rucks, carrying hard and adding some major strength at scrum time. Charteris normally offers little in these regards and did so again. Whether these substitutions were "pre-ordained" going into the game, or decided upon in an attempt to maintain fitness levels on the pitch but it did not work. Gatland constantly talks about the fitness of his team, so it seemed slightly hypocritical to haul players off over stamina concerns.

Suggested Team for Wales vs South Africa
Backs:  Halfpenny, Cuthbert, Davies, Roberts, North, Biggar, Webb
Forwards: Jenkins, Baldwin, Lee, Wyn Jones, Ball, Lydiate, Warburton (C), Faletau
Substitutes: E Phillips, (TBA), R Jones, Charteris, Tipuric, Phillips, Priestland, L Williams

I do believe that should Wales play like they have against the "Top 3" so far this autumn against South Africa on Saturday they will put themselves in with a seriously good chance to win the game. It will be a different game, South Africa always bring a physical battle to the pitch, but the ferocity and intensity played against the All Blacks will put them in good stead to take on the Boks. After the performance against the World's best, the team (excluding injuries and English based) should not be changed. The performance from all the players says everyone deserves there starting spot once again. Due to an injury sustained by youngster Nicky Smith against New Zealand a replacement loose-head is still to be announced. Priestland returns to the squad, although based on the control and confidence Biggar exudes his involvement should be limited, and the same should be said for his half-back partner Webb. Liam Williams fails to find a place in the team due to an uncharacteristic performance off the bench against New Zealand, and the size and threat of North and Cuthbert against South Africa, who could be missing both their first choice wingers (Habana will be with Toulon, and JP Pitersen could be back at his club too), might be one of the crucial factors of the game. It is a crucial game for Wales this weekend, a win against a SANZAR nation would be a great way to go into the World Cup year and the 6 Nations, not to mention finally break the drought.

Prediction: Wales win by a single score

Tries, Turnovers and Too Much TMO - Wales v Fiji

It's never a dull affair when Fiji are in town. Well actually... Fiji just took part in one of the worst games of rugby witnessed at the Millennium stadium in years, perhaps ever in the venues history. All parties were accountable for the poor spectacle: Fiji couldn't quite decide how they wanted to play; Wales tried to hard to score; and referee Pascal Gauzere constantly slowed the game down. Wales opened their account early and impressively with the forwards working hard to obtain field position and a clever back's move to put North away in the corner. Not long after a switch of direction from Rhys Priestland and a dead-eye miss pass sent Cuthbert in too. A penalty try came on the verge of half time, which gave Wales a (shaky) lead. The second half was where the game really fell apart, both teams barely able to hold on to possession, and Gauzere referring to the TMO what felt like every five minutes. It was a scoreless second half until practically the final play where Wales once again threw an intercept pass and gifted Fijian man-mountain Nandolo with a try under the posts.

So what contributed to a dull rendition of a game which normally is full of tries? Firstly French referee Gauzere should take some of the responsibility for the poor quality of the game. The number of times that he went to TMO referral slowed the game down incredibly, granted some of the reasons for "going upstairs" were reasonable, but some were completely illogical and just bored the crowd and the players. It wasn't only the stop start nature of TMO usage that should be mentioned, a significant number of times Gauzere denied quick tap penalties for no real reason which seriously stifled the flowing attack that Fiji bring. Even with the use of TMO, pundits and supporters alike are likely to disagree with the decisions over two major events in the game, at two points in the second half it looked like Wales had scored a try to extend their lead. First after multiple driving mauls it finally seemed Dan Lydiate had got the ball down over the line, by combination of two camera angles it was possible to determine that the ball was over the line and grounded before Fiji lifted it away, yet the decision was no try and Wales fluffed the ensuing lineout. The second disallowed try was for an even more inexplicable reason, after Liam Williams (one of the few shining lights of the game) had made a characteristic break from fullback, half busting a tackle before rolling back to his feet as the tackler fell away and picking the ball up off his feet. When this moment was watched back by Gauzere on the screen, he deemed Williams to have got back to his feet after a completed tackle and gave a penalty to the Fijians. A potential fourteen points disappeared from the game, for reasons lost on most viewers, which really could have brought the game to life.

However the true quality of a game is not determined by the officials but by the players. Fiji weren't themselves that was apparent from the outset, for a team famed for attacking from anywhere with offloads aplenty and bravery by the bucket load, they were surprisingly willing to kick the ball from nine or ten. They were also responsible for numerous handling errors and mistakes around the park that stuttered the continuity of the game.

Really though the Welsh players have to take the majority of the blame for the poor quality of the game. In the first half Wales were showing patience and intelligence, controlling the game and striking only when opportunities arose. Using forward power to bring the Fijian defence in, before slick passing and clever attacking lines made good inroads towards the try line. However, slowly errors crept into their game, spilling of the ball in contact, no support at breakdown and passes gone awry. Yet the second half came and those little errors could be fixed in the changing room. Instead Wales came out in worse shape than when they went in. The errors were still there and in greater number, giving Fiji easy ball in the contact area which denied any sort of continuity, the lineout collapsed entirely with no secure ball coming from set piece it meant that any territory gains made by the Welsh were not kept as Fiji kept clearing their lines. In the final quarter the scrum collapsed as well, with a scrum actually being won against the head as Fiji begun to dominate the set piece. It was bewildering why the Wales management didn't replace Scott Baldwin at hooker in an attempt to stem the tide of scrappy ball for Mike Phillips.

Speaking of the Welsh management, why wasn't the substitutes bench used to maximal efficiency? Gatland has always said he believes his team is fitter than most, and their ability to keep going at the end of the game. While we haven't seen this so much against the big southern hemisphere giants (SANZAR), against the smaller teams it has reaped rewards. A crucial part of that plan has always been the intelligent use of the bench to keep the team fresh and full of stamina at crucial times. So when the game was obviously slowing down, and getting gritty, wouldn't it make sense to bring on some replacements who could up the tempo of the game and shift the ball away from the huge collisions that were causing so much lost possession. On the bench were sitting, Rhodri Williams, James Hook and Cory Allen, all players who can move the ball around and have very quick speed of thought. It could have made all the difference switching the infamously slow passer of Phillips for Rhodri Williams to get the ball away from the breakdown, or switching gainline passer Priestland for the maverick of James Hook just to follow the trend and break up the game a little. But perhaps the change that could have made the biggest change in Welsh fortunes would have been the introduction of Cory Allen, although it would have been difficult to justify taking of Robert or Scott Williams. Personally Scott Williams was having trouble with getting the ball away before contact, something that Cory Allen is highly skilled in, the ability to move the ball to the two dangerous wingers while still committing the heavy hitting Fijians could have lead to more attacking threat.

All in all it was a messy game caused by all parties and not fixed by any either. If Wales were to play their next game - against the World Champions - then the scoreline would easily be in the 50's against the men in red. Looking ahead to next week, it goes without saying that Wales have to step up their game. More specifically there are three facets of the game that need to be sorted out:

1. The lineout MUST be fixed
2. The handling errors/easy turnovers of possession have to be cut out
3. Wales must be calmer through the phases

The lineout issue is an obvious one, if Wales cannot retain possession from their set piece, and crucially those in the All Blacks territory then they'll never score enough points to worry New Zealand. The handling errors and turnovers are what New Zealand thrive upon, the number of chances Wales gave Fiji could easily equate to three tries for the best team in the world. So they have to ensure men who go into contact have immediate support to win the collision and to secure the breakdown. Support will be crucial. Lastly Wales have to learn how to go through the phases and to not push the pass because of frustration. In two games we've seen Wales thrown three interception passes in good field position because their trying too hard to unlock the defence. Provided they can retain the ball for multiple phases eventually the mismatch or the overlap will appear and then players like North and Liam Williams can exploit those opportunities and turn it into points. The other outcome is New Zealand will eventually slip up and give Wales a penalty, and with Halfpenny returning to the team Wales have a fearsome weapon to make the All Blacks pay.

Suggested Team for Wales vs New Zealand
Backs: Liam Williams, Leigh Halfpenny, Jonathan Davies *, Jamie Roberts, George North, Dan Biggar *, Rhys Webb *
Forwards: Gethin Jenkins, Richard Hibbard, Samson Lee, Alun Wyn Jones, Jake Ball, Dan Lydiate, Sam Warburton, Talupe Faletau
Substitutes: Scott Baldwin, Paul James, Rhodri Jones, Luke Charteris, Justin Tipuric, Mike Phillips, Rhys Priestland, Alex Cuthbert
(*) dependant on recovery from injury

The team above is heavily dependent on players to recover from injury. Jonathan Davies is widely believed to be fit, but might not be chosen due to lack of game time, however his talent and knowledge of Shaun Edwards' defence is undeniable.

Rhys Priestland failed to impressive totally against Fiji so provided Biggar make a full recovery he retains the 10 shirt. Rhys Webb is still the form scrum half so again provided his neck injury is fine, he starts. Other than that it is a similar team to that who faced Australia, Liam Williams' performance in the Fiji game merits him starting at fullback, so Leigh Halfpenny moves to wing as he offers a better defence than Alex Cuthbert. Also Gethin Jenkins starts for his mobility and breakdown ability, as they could prove crucial against the All Blacks. Lastly captain Sam Warburton returns to do battle with Richie McCaw, after the game he had silencing Michael Hooper it wouldn't be a huge shock to see him do the same to the New Zealand legend.

Prediction: All Blacks by less than 10

North vs South Week 1

The Autumn Internationals have returned, fully of thrilling test matches, tight matches and quality tries. With all six European teams playing on the same day, it was a festival of rugby for the committed view, and every game was worth watching.

We've already discussed the try fest in Cardiff at length, with six tries in a frenetic first half, before a assured Australia lead by man-of-the-match Bernard Foley asserted their dominance to close out yet another win against the Welsh. It was one of Wales' best performances in recent years against a Southern Hemisphere side (maybe only the game against South Africa in the summer piping it), with numerous players reconfirming their credentials as Gatland's go-to men. However significant errors counted for a lot, and crucial missed tackles counted for even more, as they gifted the Wallabies twenty one points. Something that cannot be done against the SANZAR teams, at all.

Meanwhile along the M4, England faced off against the World Champions for the fourth time in a row, at a packed out Twickenham. It started so well for the home nation, where seemingly from a nothing phase in midfield winger Jonny May burst onto the ball with frightening speed, storming past three New Zealand players on his way to a fantastic solo try. Soon afterwards England once again threatened the All Black line, but Mike Brown spilled the ball with the try line waiting for him. With that let off, New Zealand moved down the pitch and a superb display of why they're the best team in the world, eventually Aaron Cruden over the line - somewhat controversially. When the second half came so did the downpour, and with it a change in the game. Gone was the wide expansive game and instead the forwards took control. Both teams blew chances at goal during the game, but New Zealand sacrificed the biggest points with a kicking percentage in the thirties. However despite this the All Blacks showed their ability to adapt to a game with unparalleled grace, and eventually built their lead. Even when they went a man down, they took control, denying England any position (14% during the ten minute period) and actually adding points. A last minute penalty try for England was not enough to bring the game back to the English, in fact the scoreline flattered them somewhat and didn't show how much control the world champions had. Still it did show the gulf in class between New Zealand and almost every team in the world, when the conditions are appalling and the scoreboard is against them, they can execute the simple things well. Pulling off passes and offloads despite the soaking ball, till they could strike. England are getting close to winning consistently against the Southern Hemisphere, but not yet.

Away from the disappointing losses, both France and Italy recorded wins this weekend. Italy beating Samoa for the first time in years, and France putting 40 points on the Fijians, although Fiji did show they're traditional attacking flair but scoring one of the tries of the weekend with an end-to-end touchdown on the final whistle. Returning to the British Isles, Ireland and Scotland both recorded wins in fantastic style. Scotland were rejuvenated under Kiwi coach Vern Cotter. It didn't start so well after a drop of the ball gave Argentina the lead, but rather than letting their heads drop Scotland came right back led by their scrum-half and captain Greig Laidlaw. A quick tap and a superb left handed pass sent Maitland over for their first. Before long both Gray brothers got their names on the score-sheet, on the way to Scotland notching up five tries on Cotters first game at Murrayfield. Scotland will be disappointed with their performance in the final quarter however, leaking another three tries during 20 minutes down to fourteen men. It's excellent to see Scotland's brilliant back three able to show their ability on a brand new pitch, and also that the team set up supports these players. Yet if they were to offer their next opponents - New Zealand - the same number of chances as they did the Pumas then they could be in for a world of hurt.

Finally Ireland, facing up against the second best team in the world, who had only recently beaten New Zealand to end the unbeaten run. It was a tall order for Ireland who had a long injury list including Chris Henry having pulled out shortly before the game. However it became apparent very quickly that Ireland weren't cowing down to the pre-match predictions, with a furious defence stopping the big South African ball carriers with huge two person tackles. Without the go forward from their behemoths, the flashy backs had little space or time on the ball, in fact only Willie le Roux making an serious threats to the Ireland defence and even then only from kick returns. With little gain being made in the centre of the field, the Springboks returned to the pre-set game plan, mauls. At every lineout South Africa looked to form their fearsome weapon, and at every lineout Ireland refused to take part. Stepping away from their opponents, as such no offside line was created allowing - usually - Jack McGrath to step around to the back of the maul and tackle the man in possession. A sensible team would then adapt their game away from mauls, instead South Africa kept attempting them, and being stopped every time (except for one try from five meters out). Meanwhile Ireland in offence were sublime, Jonathan Sexton with a dominant kicking game, constantly turning the big forwards, and Rob Kearney making numerous line breaks from fullback. The final nail in the coffin for the southern hemisphere giants was the yellow card to replacement hooker Strauss, while he was off the field Ireland - unlike England - ton total control and finished off the game with an sublime cross field kick by Connor Murray to the ever present winger Tommy Bowe, to round off the win.

Looking ahead, South Africa face another tough game after the Irish as they arrive at Twickenham to take on Stuart Lancaster and co. If England can tighten up their game and make complete use of all their chances, it's hard to look past them for the win. Ireland are doing their best to develop world rugby, as they play their easiest game of the series against Georgia. It is almost a guaranteed win, especially after their performance last weekend, but teams have slipped up at these games in the past. Scotland face their biggest test in current world champions, and undeniable best in the world, New Zealand and despite the vast improvements in attacking ingenuity, the frailties exposed in the last twenty minutes could cost them an respectful scoreline. Wales play Fiji in another one sided match, but with both sides meeting again at next year's world cup it is a very important game. Finally across the Channel: France face Australia in a replay of their summer tour, and Italy face against Argentina. Both games are close to call but home advantage could prove crucial.

Predictions:
Italy vs. Argentina (Sat: KO 1400) - Argentina
England vs. South Africa (Sat: KO 1430) - England
Wales vs. Fiji (Sat: KO 1430) - Wales
Scotland vs. New Zealand (Sat: KO 1730) - New Zealand
France vs. Australia (Sat: KO 2000) - Australia
Ireland vs. Georgia (Sun: KO 1430) - Ireland

Wales Once Again Stutter - but for once in style

It's a familiar tale for any Welshman this weekend, losing to a Southern Hemisphere side but less than a score. You would have thought with all the practice they get at it they'd have figured out how to score at 80+ minutes by now. Instead once again a lead with less than ten minutes to go was let slip. Certainly some suspect refereeing decisions didn't help, Joubert's interpretation of the advantage rule a confusing one for many people watching the game, but in reality when you look at the game individual mistakes are what cost the men in red. 21 points, almost two-thirds of Australia's points, came from players making mistakes. Firstly was Dan Biggar - usually a dependable operator in defence - was flattened by a hard running Hooper who delivered a delightful offload to the ever present Israel Folau. Not all the blame can be placed on the fly-half as winger-come-centre George North made a motion to tackle Hooper too but held off. The second Rhys Webb gifted Folau a second, after excellent work by Wales, a simple pass would have almost certainly resulted in a try, instead Webb pushed the envelope and went for a miss-pass, and delivering it straight into Folau's hands. The very definition of a 14 point score. Australia's third and final try also included the loss of talismanic fullback Halfpenny, as Kuridrani broke a double tackle to slid in underneath the posts.

However ignoring the mistakes, if you can do such a thing in international rugby, Wales were by far the better team, more in control, more confident and certainly threatened the Aussie line a lot more than their opponents. Coming away with four tries against a SANZAR team is a serious achievement and it's a testament to the coaching team that they all came from different methods. A snipe from Webb, a wonderful attack from their own half, powerful forward carrying on the line and a penalty try from the scrum. When Gatland (and Shaun Edwards) turned up in Wales it was evident that defence was all important for them, it's exciting to see a Welsh team willing to attack and play with heads up rugby. While one on one tackles lead to two tries for the Wallabies, in general the defence displayed was superb, much improved on that which was so expertly unlocked by Quade Cooper last year. Lydiate was the fore once again, back to his best, despite worries about his fitness, lasting 75 minutes and topping the tackle charts with numerous "leg-chops". In fact the entire Welsh backrow had one of their best games ever, Warburton essentially nullified the feared Hooper at the breakdown, Australia's only turnovers seeming to come from heavy ruck commitment rather than "jackling". Another player worth mentioning for his effort in the game is Jamie Roberts, in recent years his worth to the team offensively has been questioned. In defence he is almost unbeatable, the solid rock upon which Edwards has formed his defensive system. Yet with the ball in hand some people have questioned whether his ability to get over the gainline is enough to not select faster, more expansive inside centres. Well yesterday he certainly shut those people up, picking some fantastic lines off 10 both of first phase and open play ball. Willing to put his body on the line and take on the Australia defenders, and more often than not breaking the gainline by a considerable distance for someone who lacks a lot of pace.

The experiment of George North at centre didn't last long, but for the 30 minutes where he presided in that channel there is a lot you can take. Offensively certainly he is a weapon, the problem Wales have always had is getting the ball into his hands, with him that much closer to the breakdown it is much easier to get him involved in the game. And if George North is going to become the "new" Shane Williams, he has to both look for the ball, and other players have got to be willing to give it to him. When North was attacking he was undoubtedly a threat, setting up a try for Cuthbert and keeping the Australians on their toes. Defensively there are fragilities, especially in the blitz system, but at least he is good enough one on one. Personally looking in the future, North should only be considered at outside centre for Wales in times of need, the talent of Jonathan Davies is undeniable (speak to Brian O'Driscoll about the final Lion's Test) and his deputy Cory Allen is shaping up to be a very clever operator. What Wales need to take from this experiment is that they must get the ball into North's hands as much as possible, but from wing. It isn't hard, Shane Williams used to turn up at first receiver and just behind the inside centre all the time, looking to get the ball and have an impact. North has to do the same, he's shown what he can do on the wing, what he needs to do now is play where the ball is. Leave the touchline for the likes of Cuthbert and Halfpenny to touch down in the corner.

Looking ahead to next week, we know for certain that Dan Biggar is unavailable possibly for the rest of the series. This means that Priestland is likely to reclaim the fly-half shirt that he so excellently filled three years ago in New Zealand. Hopefully for the coaches also, Jonathan Davies should return for next weekend's game. Traditionally the Fiji game (or Tonga, Canada and others) has always been a development game set up by the WRU, however due to the importance of the game it might be worth fielding a strong side with a few minor changes, alongside the enforced ones, to ensure a victory. Wales need to be certain of their credentials against Fiji before the RWC Pools next year, not to mention the fact that the All Blacks arrive in Cardiff the week after, and keeping players momentum and form going will be crucial.

Suggested team for Wales vs Fiji
Backs: Liam Williams, Alex Cuthbert, Jonathan Davies, Jamie Roberts, George North, Rhys Priestland, Rhys Webb
Forwards: Gethin Jenkins, Scott Baldwin, Samson Lee, Jake Ball, Luke Charteris, Dan Lydiate, Sam Warburton, Dan Baker
Substitutes: Richard Hibbard, Nicky Smith, Rhodri Jones, Bradley Davies, Justin Tipuric, Mike Phillips, James Hook, Cory Allen

The team above brings in players who hopefully should be returning from injury, and giving them game time ahead of the world champions, with Davies and Charteris starting. At the same time it attempts to keep the vast majority of those who faced Australia starting. Resting Halfpenny after being taken off due to concussion protocol allows him plenty of time to recover before the real test. Also it keeps Rhys Webb in attempting to give him more experience and confidence at international level, doing the same for Samson Lee. Finally are two players starting to give them some much needed game time at test level, Baker who has played fantastically all season, and Baldwin who is almost certain to be playing South Africa with the England based players being unavailable for the game.

Looking at Wales' opponents for Saturday realistically they shouldn't provide much difficulty in over coming. Last time the teams faced was at the World Cup where a "second-string" Wales team beat the islanders quite convincingly. However it has happened way to often that Wales have slipped up against the "weaker" nation by fielding a weaker side. Fiji went up against France in their warm up and were comprehensively beaten by a free scoring French team. Wales should be able to reproduce a similar score line, but should too many changes been enacted then it could be come a struggle. All that is certain is that is it a much win game for Wales - no questions.

Prediction: Wales win, by two scores.

Autumn Internationals: Back Row to beat the Southern Hemisphere?

The Autumn International series is upon us the age old question has begun to crop up. How do you beat the Southern Hemisphere teams? There have been many theories over the years, run around the South Africans, dominate the Australian scrum, and pray to the rugby gods against the All Blacks. However on a more realistic view point, I believe the key to beating the "top three" (England reside in 3rd currently) is the back-row of the scrum.

In recent years the rise of the back-row had been prominent, especially the role of the open-side flanker. Almost every nation has an ongoing debate about who should play at 6, 7 & 8. Do you need a "jackling" openside? Should you have a ball carrying or a lineout jumping 6? The argument for the importance of the back-row is even more noticeable against the Southern Hemisphere, with Australia's unmatched jacklers, South Africa's behemoths and New Zealand's adaptable trio. So the question is what do the Home Nation teams have to do to combat them? The answer, choose the right back row combination. Each opponent requires a different combination to neutralise or attack specifically, so we'll study each country individually.

Australia are the most lethal turn over team in the world, with top quality breakdown kings in Pocock and Hooper. There are two schools of thought to dealing with Australia, either you field a team to batter down their pack, and tire them out preventing them in their turnover attempts. Personally I think this plan is rather risky, a large and strong back-row would be required to pull of this plan, which can leave you very vulnerable should Australia pull off a turnover. Also no matter how much close forward carrying you attempt their players aren't going to be tired until 60 minutes at the earliest which mean you have to endure three quarters of the game against Hooper or Pocock. Instead use the set up of fielding your own turnover players in as much abundance as possible. For example Wales could field Tipuric and Warburton, and take on the Australians at their own game, taking ball off them, or preventing them from getting over the ball with your own operators who understand the techniques.

The giants of South Africa pose a serious problem for many teams in the world, dealing with these behemoths who can make yardage with incredible ease, and form a terrifying defensive prospect to break through. Preventing the likes of Vermeulen, Burger and Alberts from rampaging through your team is a tough prospect, but in reality it should be simple, tackling like you're always told, aim for the legs. You need a real chop tackler, not a brute; the ilk of Dan Lydiate is the perfect player for preventing any real damage to your team. If you can get the players down quickly, there is a chance you will be able to get another one of your players over the ball before any support can arrive for the ball-carrier. That's where the other side of your pack comes into play, you need a quick player who is a very strong jackler, continuing with the Welsh theme a player like Justin Tipuric is a perfect fit. The other upside to a player like Tipuric is his playing ability, giving you a strong, quick, intelligent player in and around the ball which will allow you to play around and away from South Africa's big ball carriers/tacklers.

Lastly and perhaps most challenging are the indomitable All Blacks. The difficulty with New Zealand is understanding how they play. Playing a turnover game against them doesn't work, they are more than happy to let the opposition play with the ball. And attempting a chop tackle game doesn't work, because they are without doubt the greatest off loading team in the world. In recent history there has only one team - on one occasion - that has comprehensively beaten the All Blacks, and it's credit to England that they nailed down exactly how to nullify the New Zealand attack. The key to the reason New Zealand are so lethal on the offensive is because they don't give the opposition any time to realign in defence. They operate at such a high speed at ruck time that the only way to stop them, is to seriously hit rucks hard, and seriously slow the ball down. Part of the system the All Blacks run is that they can trust forwards to operate in the back line with the proficiency of backs; as such they can trust the backs closest to the ruck to commit and win it. So even playing a back row capable of hitting rucks with ferocity and power you have to have intelligence in that trio of positioning themselves on the pitch to hit the right ruck at the right time. Wales struggle with fielding a back row of this form, they don't really posses that style of player, but as mentioned England certainly do with the likes of Robsaw, Wood and Vunipola; Ireland also can set up a good back row, with O'Brien, O'Mahony and Heaslip.

Of course all that I've stated here is personal opinion, and other people will have their own opinion on how to defeat the giants of world rugby, certainly half-back pairings can make a difference among other things. And some might say you shouldn't build a team focused on combating an opponent and should instead pick on strengths of your own team. However more often than not it is possible to coincide both this ideals.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

With the first game of the Autumn Internationals kicking off in less than four days, I encourage those readers who are competitive to sign up to ESPN's Fantasy Rugby game, and join the Tackle Pad's Private League to prove who's best. Details can be found here:
Autumn International's Fantasy League

Developing Nations - Focus on 2019

Having witnessed the much talked about test match in Chicago, between the United States and New Zealand, I do believe there is hope for the so called "Tier 3" nations of the world with five years to go until the Rugby World Cup takes place in Japan. There are many things in the way of these teams progression on the international stage before they'll pose a continuous threat to the likes of Wales, Ireland and France, but the first signs are there.

The teams looking at challenging for group stage qualification will be the likes of: United States, Samoa, Japan, Fiji and Canada. A few of these teams have been renowned names (for various reasons) in world rugby for a few years now, Samoa for brutal tackling, Fiji for unbelievable ball handling skills and Japan in recent years have scored some fantastic tries with pace and power. What has to be looked at now is how to bring these teams on from not only consistently qualifying for the World Cup group stages but winning games in those pools and causing teams troubles.

Firstly it has got to be getting their players more game time at the top level, be that a club or the international stage. Both hemispheres are guilty of preventing the "minnows" into their club game. It took years for Argentina to get into the (at the time) Tri-Nations even after a third place finish at a World Cup. We need to see Japanese and Pacific Island players competing in the Super 15 and American/Canadian players making themselves known either in European competitions or a competitive league must be formed on the continent. We've already seen a few players build a cult following at top level clubs in the British Isles: Manoa (USA) at Northampton Saints, Blaine Scully (USA) at Leicester Tigers and Jeff Hassler (Canada) at Ospreys. With performances like this from Tier 3 players I would find it hard to believe that professional clubs aren't scouting the deep pool that is sitting across the pond.

Speaking of the pool of players, if we looked closely at America it's obvious to see purely on a population level and the law of averages there must be some serious talent in multiple positions for the Eagles. The problem is that the young men/boys, that have natural talent that could excite the rugby world, face the general pressure to play American Football. While it is the primary sport in the nation, you can't help feeling that many players are left by the way side as coaches select who gets scholarships for college. The players who are left behind still posses extreme physical ability and obvious ball skills that could be easily transferred to a rugby pitch: Linebackers - Backrow; Quarter-backs - Fly-halves; Wide-Receivers - Wingers. And while there will obviously be a lot less funding for rugby compared to the "national sport", even a cursory glance at the levels of funding across all major sports in America will show that there is money - and lots of it - to be found for sport in America. There must be some private investor who would back a college; a professional team; or even a league.

Obviously discussions of club level development is important to develop home grown talent for the international team, but if the international team have no reason to meet up and train together on a regular basis then they'll never compete at Test level. To fix this the governing bodies of the game need to push the top teams to play more games against the developing teams, to get clubs to release the players for those games and to potentially set up a consistent competitive tournament. Seeing the "Big 3" take on the Pacific Islanders and Japan as a warm up for the Autumn Tests in Europe or for the Rugby Championship will greatly increase crowd size and interest in the sport in the nations (see 61,000 in Chicago yesterday). If the European teams faced the likes of America - and smaller cousins Canada - as their small game for the Autumn Internationals or as their warm up game for their summer tours the same result could be achieved. But perhaps a greater idea is to get these teams to make use of one another. Surely it couldn't be too difficult to set up a Pacific Rim League, between six teams: USA, Canada, Japan, Fiji, Samoa and Tonga. Time-zones could play a major hiccup but it hasn't affected the induction of Argentina to the Rugby Championship. So why can't six teams who obviously want more international exposure accommodate the International Date Line.

There a multiple reasons why none of these suggestions have happened yet: funding, player quality and IRB Test windows. Yet from the quality shown in recent years and indeed yesterday by a gusty American team way out of their depth against the world champions, it's obvious that a global sport is possible and a completely competitive World Cup is possible.

Autumn Internationals Fantasy League - Who's the Best?

Fellow rugby fans, I'm sure all of you are aware that the Autumn Internationals are just around the corner. In fact Italy and Samoa start of the intense four week period of test level matches in under a week. ESPN run a fantasy league every year for the Autumn Internationals, and a league has been set up for Tackle Pad readers.

Once you've found the game at: http://espnscrum.fantasyleague.com/ and made your team go and join a private league and use PIN Code: 73439 to join the Tackle Pad league.

Certain rule to make note of:
- You only gain points for a single kicker in your team
- You have unlimited transfers between game weekends
- You can only select a total of four players from each team

I look forward to competing against you all.