So... At a glance Wales once again were leading against a Southern Hemisphere with less than fifteen minutes remaining. By full time the scoreline read against the men in red. It was a very different performance to that against Australia two weeks ago, Wales running a furious defence to prevent any continuity for the All Blacks. Lydiate and Hibbard crunching all manner of players around the breakdown, while man of the match Roberts ran an almost perfect blitz system with reinstated Davies. At the breakdown the legendary McCaw was prevented from messing up Wales's ball by superb support play, but also a lot of praise should go to Wayne Barnes in the middle. One of the few games of rugby which had no moments of real contentious decisions, bar except one moment between Dane Coles and Rhys Webb which was handled exquisitely by the Englishman.
As a Welshman reliving the game in a summary is slightly soul crushing so I shall keep it brief. An incredibly tight first half ended with each team on three points, it was likely to be down to the first score of the second half to decide the game. New Zealand struck first, and struck early, with Conrad Smith overcoming the rapid Welsh blitz via a sublime reverse pass to allow Savea to break the cover tackles and score in the corner. Wales scored their own try quickly in return, beautiful play from inform scrum-half Webb allowed Faletau to thunder towards the try line, who then returned the favour with an out of the tackle offload as Webb dived over for this second international try. New Zealand's second try came from another method of avoiding the blitz defence, a low flat cross-kick from Barrett turned Conrad Smith into supplier once again, as he slipped the ball back inside to allow Kaino to cross. A penalty allowed Wales to take the lead at a crucial time, something other teams have been failing to do against the All Blacks this year, although if anything it seemed to enrage the southern hemisphere team even more. Three tries in the final stages of the game gave the scoreboard a significantly less respectable outcome, a chip kick, charge down and another cross field kick put the game out of reach.
For almost seventy minutes, Wales stood toe to toe with the best in the world. It is surely a massive testament to Gatland's team that they prevented any New Zealand threat in the first half with a oppressive defence. Looking back at the game now it really did hinge on bounce of a ball, after Halfpenny got completely fooled by the chip through by Beauden Barrett, the game turned. Wales suddenly felt that with ten minutes left they had to push the game and suddenly everything changed. The All Blacks sensed blood and kicked into another gear, suddenly Wales couldn't deal with it and the opposition had figured out how to unlock the Welsh blitz. Commendations for the Wales position at 70 minutes should go to Lydiate, Hibbard and Jamie Roberts, but personally the major change to the Welsh system was the return of Jonathan Davies. The system by which Wales live by is a very aggressive blitz, focused on Davies reading the trajectory of the play and stopping - generally - the outside centre from making ground. Despite some highly talented centres available to Wales, no one has the same reading of the opponents attack as "Foxy" and it caused considerable problems for the All Blacks trying to get outside the red-shirted defenders.
Offensively Wales offered less than they did against Australia, but still provided moments to get the crowd off their seats. In the first half a crunching hit dislodged the ball in the Welsh 22, and George North had to either gather the ball of connect with it with his foot and he was almost certainly in for a try. It elude him. Another moment Sam Warburton collected a messy ball after a mid-air contest, and burst through the crowd, if it had been the other way around surely it would have resulted in a try. However New Zealand possess a distinct ability to support the runner, Wales did not, no real options surrounded the captain and one (somewhat dubious) forward pass later the chance was gone. Never the less Wales has certainly altered their game plan somewhat, while the hard running gainline battle fought by Jamie Roberts and Alun Wyn Jones is still prominent it is more effective. Instead of Roberts being asked to crash into multiple players straight on, Biggar has taken on himself to draw attention from the defence, and Roberts has begun charging with intelligent angles. There is certainly more willingness to play with vision and risk, the ability to play with heads up rugby and go against "Warrenball" stems from an extremely confident half-back partnership which is thriving on the international stage. It was noticeable that Wales' tempo decreased when Webb had to leave the field, and when James Hook was introduced Wales seemed to lack more composure. This is the nine and ten to lead Wales to the World Cup.
There are problems that Wales must address before they face the #2 side in the world next weekend. Paramount of which is the lineout, after a perfect game against Australia, the last two weeks have brought to light some problems. Wales look to consistently attempt the risky throw to the tail, and while it can bring some big rewards, against New Zealand it cost them a lot of possession in important areas. New Zealand are a team which almost always come away from the opponents 22 with points, in comparison far to often Wales gave the lineout ball back to the All Blacks who could then clear their lines. The worry with this for next weekend is South Africa are widely feared as the best set piece operators in the game, and Wales are losing their first choice hooker to club commitments and Scott Baldwin's throwing was exposed to terrifying effect against Fiji who are not a major lineout threat. The question is can he - and his jumpers - fix the issues over the week before they face the likes of Matfield and Etzebeth?
Other than the set piece issues on Saturday there was one other telling moment which changed the fortunes of the Welsh team (that was in their control). At 60 minutes Gatland and co. made three changes to the pack: Hibbard, Ball and Lydiate all being replaced. Some argument could be made that these were made in an attempt to bring about a change to the lineout with 6'10'' Charteris and athletic Tipuric coming on to compete in the air. It did little to help, and actually caused detriment to the Welsh play around the park. With Lydiate and Hibbard going off a lot of the ferocity in defence was lost and New Zealand suddenly weren't under as much pressure with ball in hand. Meanwhile Jake Ball (and Hibbard) had gone through some serious graft through the game securing rucks, carrying hard and adding some major strength at scrum time. Charteris normally offers little in these regards and did so again. Whether these substitutions were "pre-ordained" going into the game, or decided upon in an attempt to maintain fitness levels on the pitch but it did not work. Gatland constantly talks about the fitness of his team, so it seemed slightly hypocritical to haul players off over stamina concerns.
Suggested Team for Wales vs South Africa
Backs: Halfpenny, Cuthbert, Davies, Roberts, North, Biggar, Webb
Forwards: Jenkins, Baldwin, Lee, Wyn Jones, Ball, Lydiate, Warburton (C), Faletau
Substitutes: E Phillips, (TBA), R Jones, Charteris, Tipuric, Phillips, Priestland, L Williams
I do believe that should Wales play like they have against the "Top 3" so far this autumn against South Africa on Saturday they will put themselves in with a seriously good chance to win the game. It will be a different game, South Africa always bring a physical battle to the pitch, but the ferocity and intensity played against the All Blacks will put them in good stead to take on the Boks. After the performance against the World's best, the team (excluding injuries and English based) should not be changed. The performance from all the players says everyone deserves there starting spot once again. Due to an injury sustained by youngster Nicky Smith against New Zealand a replacement loose-head is still to be announced. Priestland returns to the squad, although based on the control and confidence Biggar exudes his involvement should be limited, and the same should be said for his half-back partner Webb. Liam Williams fails to find a place in the team due to an uncharacteristic performance off the bench against New Zealand, and the size and threat of North and Cuthbert against South Africa, who could be missing both their first choice wingers (Habana will be with Toulon, and JP Pitersen could be back at his club too), might be one of the crucial factors of the game. It is a crucial game for Wales this weekend, a win against a SANZAR nation would be a great way to go into the World Cup year and the 6 Nations, not to mention finally break the drought.
Prediction: Wales win by a single score
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