So it's all come down to this, after months, years of planning and preparation and worries over getting out of the Pool of Death, one game decides 1st and 2nd place in Pool A. Both Australia and Wales have already qualified for the knock out stages, both are equal on points heading into the final match, and both know that top spot offers an easier route to the final. So the question is who can take the spoils at Twickenham.
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Battle of the 10's, both Biggar and Foley have been amazing so far |
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Missing midfield magic? |
In the matches leading up to Saturday it's obvious there is a disparity in form between the two teams, yes they have both won all three, but Australia have looked far more comfortable in their victories than the Welsh. This could be down in part to the fact that Wales seem incapable of playing a game without picking up an injury at the moment, every red-shirted supporter will be hoping they can come through Australia without a big name limping off. What Wales have managed to do is win ugly, against England where they had no right to win the game, second best for most of the match, they eeked out the win with the peerless Dan Biggar having the game of his life (including the game against South Africa last year). Not to mention that piece of magic from the pair of scrum halves. Having to face Fiji barely five days later was always going to be tough, and it showed, despite early promise of try scoring Wales looked tired during the second half and ended up on the ropes near the end. But once again the level head of Biggar combined with the leadership across the park saw them through. Also the benefits of all the pre-tournament training camps are showing, Wales looked far fitter and capable of pulling off the heroics at the death than England, and managed to survive against Fiji. Wales are lacking the ability to excite at the moment with the likes of Amos and Scott Williams injured, but they have developed a habit of winning, and results are all that matter in a World Cup.
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Hooper & Pocock have been amazing so far, |
Meanwhile Australia are getting those results while playing the best looking rugby of the tournament. Playing double open sides they have ripped good teams apart with ease, but it's how they've gone about using their two open sides that has impressed me. There is an obvious plan there, where each man knows their role in play. Pocock with his unparalleled ability to win turnovers, clamping down on the ball with all the suction of a limpet mine, and that's all he does. Meanwhile the supremely athletic Hooper is given licence to cause chaos as a tackler, often the primary defender from lineouts he rushes up to bring down the ball carrier in ferocious collisions. Pocock follows around his team-mate waiting for those swift tackles where the opposition doesn't have enough support. Unfortunately for Australians (and perhaps some vengeful English) Hooper is banned for this game, but Australia have
another openside flanker to parachute into the role with the young McMahon stepping up after captaining the side against Uruguay. Open-sides isn't the only place Cheika has the opposition seeing double, playing two class play makers at 10 and 12, giving them creativity across the park, able to attack both sides of the breakdown with ease and confidence. It also provides Australia with a very strong kicking game with both Foley and Giteau moving the ball around the park with precision.
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Ledesma has transformed Australia |
It seems weird that we have to discuss the Australian scrum, but it has to be mentioned. For years it was the laughing stock of the Tier 1 international game, that is until the induction of Scott Sio at loose-head and the former Argentina Mario Ledesma as forwards coach. Now Australia possess one of the best scrums in the world, providing an incredible platform from which Australia can unleash their back line, or win penalties for Foley to knock calmly through the posts.
Anyway that's enough about the previous games, we've seen more than once in rugby matches where the form book get's ripped up and thrown out the window, so what matters is what happens on the day. So who is taking the field? Australia have stuck to their guns, as well as they can, excluding the missing Hooper and the injured winger Horne, especially with both Folau and Giteau passing their fitness tests hours before the (delayed) team announcement. The strong front row of Sio, Moore and Kepu remains to target a Welsh scrum that has struggled so far this tournament. The back row even without Hooper continues in the same vein. The backline again remains unchanged from the team that beat England, Foley and Giteau looking to control the game, while Folau, Ashley-Cooper and (the freshly drafted in) Mitchell provide plenty of excitement and try scoring ability out wide.
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Folau has been passed fit, and could wreak havoc on Saturday |
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Gatland has made some big calls for selection |
On the opposite side of the field, Gatland has torn up the form book, for the last few years Wales' team has been predictable, but the Kiwi has always had the ability to drop a bomb in team selection: Warburton as captain four years ago, North test cap at 18 years old, no room for O'Driscoll in the Lions final test. And it's safe to say he's done it again. While certain players are carrying knocks, they are available to play, Gatland is probably looking ahead to the knock-out groups where the defensive bravery of Lydiate and strong ball carrying of Bradley Davies will be needed. So instead in the pack, the maul destroying Luke Charteris has been brought in, and after months of Welsh fans begging for the inclusion of Justin Tipuric, he starts. Wales combating the two open-side flankers of Australia with their own two, who so expertly destroyed the English two years ago. In the front row Wales have brought in their strongest scrummagers, Gethin Jenkins get's rested as Paul James gets a chance to prove his prowess, while the highly rated Samson Lee has recovered from his ankle/heel issues to form the corner stone at tight-head.
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Anscombe is a Super XV winning fullback, can he show it on the Test stage? |
The pack isn't the only place Gatland has made some eye opening choices, super-star George North fills in the outside centre berth he excelled in last time Wales faced Australia (in 2013), looking to recover the form he had for the Lions against the Wallabies. In attack all supporters will love to see North get his hands on the ball far more often, but defensively he will be facing a baptism of fire in the toughest position. With North out of position, the out of form Cuthbert retains his place, as maverick Liam Williams returns from injury this time at wing. Lastly is Gareth Anscombe winning his first ever test start, at full back. It's certainly a risk, even though Anscombe had a good game from the bench against Ireland, after his inconsistent performances for the Cardiff Blues last season. Although he does come with some very strong credentials in the fullback position, after filling the shirt for the Chiefs the year they won the Super XV title. But the long and the short of it is, he is facing up against arguably the best fullback in world rugby, and he has to prove he is deserving of the central contract his on.
This game is the biggest of the World Cup so far, who ever wins it has a very strong chance of reaching the final, while whoever loses faces two serious battles to make the final. The fact that Australia are winning their games comfortably and in total control gives them the edge this weekend, especially if Wales are incapable of fixing the issues at the scrum. But Wales have shown that if they are within a score when the game comes down the final moments they have the ability to steal a win, or defend a lead, something they haven't managed to do over the last few years - especially against the Australia.
Prediction: Australia by two scores
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