Saturday, 27 February 2016

Wales control unconvincing France

North's try proved the difference on the night, as both teams struggled to attack.
It started off with a malfunction, as the roof had to be left open to the cold Cardiff air. Early on it seemed to throw of the kickers, with both Biggar & Plison missing their first attempt at goal. Overall the game wasn't a spectacular one, France were constantly looking for the offload which amidst the ferocious Welsh defence lead to a large array of scrums which killed any momentum in the game. It was a game which was won by a moment of pace and finishing by George North, even a late French driving maul did nothing to add much sheen to the poor French performance.

Is Trinh-Duc the fly-half for France?
France looked most dangerous in the last 10-15 minutes after the introduction of the maverick Trinh-Duc, who looked to attack on the gainline and bring his forwards into play slightly wider out. A little disappointing after Plisson had had two good confident games for France and offering France an element of control which they have lacked for years. However against Wales he was largely anonymous and what he is remembered for is a blatant forward pass and a rash clearance kick which gave Wales an attacking lineout and the first score. France's driving maul caused Wales problems in the second half, and after the replacement of Lydiate in the final 5 minutes it utterly collapsed as France steamrollered over for their try. It's clear just how important Charteris is to Wales' lineout defence both in defending the maul weapon that the likes of France and England like to employ, but also in trying to steal the ball. Against Ireland and Scotland, Wales pulled off two lineout steals a game, against France there weren't any. Wales will be hoping for Charteris' return to fitness for Twickenham in two weeks.

Anscome, the solution to Wales
try scoring problem?
This wasn't the biggest problem for Wales though - for 20 minutes in the second half they defended the driving maul expertly - once again Wales failed to execute well created chances. There was one glaring opportunity in the first half, after Gareth Davies made yet another excellent break and used his raw pace to escape the covering French defence. He had five men-in-red outside him against two scrambling in blue, a simple offload to Biggar and with the rest of the Welsh backline outside him it should have been a clear try. Instead he kicked the ball into the try area, and it was dealt with by the covering French players. This lead to a succession of scrums which Wales failed to execute into a try. North's try came from a turnover, an intelligent kick by Jonathan Davies, some exceptional speed; and a little bit of luck for the winger. Again in the second half there came a chance for Wales near the French line, instead of using the backline they continued to hammer away with the forwards, which resulted in a French penalty and nothing coming of it. And another when Dan Lydiate was unable to link up with Faletau outside him as Wales looked to carve through the French defence. On the whole it spoke of a Wales team which still lacked the basic confidence in decision making, and ability to execute, in the final third. I often wonder if Rhys Priestland (especially after his successful appearances in the first two rounds) would make a difference to Wales' attacking game in the last twenty minutes, or even Gareth Anscombe at fullback with his Super Rugby experience. As superb as Biggar is for controlling the game and kick chase, Priestland certainly takes the ball closer to the line in attack.
Liam Williams was starting to show
his form once again.

Speaking of the kicking game it was once again a fruitful endeavor for the likes of Biggar and Liam Williams. At no point in the game did a French player claim the ball cleanly, and more often than not the ball ended up in Wales hands. Liam Williams was simple peerless in defending any kicks France unleashed, and Dan Biggar went about reclaiming his own up-and-under's with typical reckless abandon. It wasn't just the kicks to contest that Biggar was dominant at, when Wales looked to be struggling to gain ground in the middle third, the Ospreys fly-half pulled off some exceptional kicks to touch, exploiting the poor positioning of the French back-three to keep the pressure on the visitors. His kicks to exit were excellent too, one clearing penalty kick went from under his posts to the half way line (even if the penalty was later overturned). The clearance kicks were chased exceptionally by all those involved especially Alex Cuthbert, who had a superb game in his return to the starting team.

It was a great game for the Cardiff Blues' man, he had very little chance to show his greatest attributes as in attack Wales rarely used him, in a game with little space as it was. But that didn't stop him trying to get involved consistently, offering himself as an option in lineout set moves, and often on the shoulder of Gareth Davies when he made breaks. His kick-chasing was exquisite, using all of his athleticism and speed to arrive at the right moment and place the catcher under serious pressure. He gave it his all, and is something that is useful for Wales on the whole as they often lack a strong kick chase at length. Perhaps the biggest part of his display last night was his defence, surprising for a player who has often been picked apart by fans and pundits in the past. In the first half Wales looked to bring him around the fringe defence, this was likely to avoid forcing him to make decisions in the wider channels which has been is biggest failing in the past. Instead his strength was used to compete at the breakdown, slow the French ball down, and stop the forwards from gaining any ground, an excellent use of the players strength by the Welsh management.

Cuthbert was also directly responsible for the prevention of three tries, two interventions at driving mauls Cuthbert was able to get under the ball clearly enough for Barnes to not even consider use of the TMO. But the really great defensive moment from Cuthbert came when Plisson attempted a cross-field kick, Liam Williams covered the initial recipient of the ball who still managed to get the ball free to the inside support. Cuthbert had covered half the pitch to aid his fullback, and put in a weighty hit on the Frenchman and completed the tackle by driving the player into touch, killing the play. The stats will say his missed two tackles, but a completion of 7 tackles for a winger is nothing to be sniffed at.

Alex Cuthbert was defensively solid against France, something he's struggled with in the past
Elsewhere around the pitch, Jamie Roberts once again provided Wales with thunderous ball carrying and at times lethal tackling. Liam Williams looked more like himself, looking to free up the players around him with offloads and attempting to spark some attacking intent from his teammates. Talupe Faletau was again virtually error free, only one dropped ball from a poor Lydiate pass, but always made more yards than he deserved against the French players. The return of Captain Sam to the openside flank proved effective, as expected. He was much more involved in the Welsh attack, his typical hard lengthy carriers into contact almost created a try for him, and provided Wales with much more go forward ball, even beating two defenders with ball in hand. He made 17 tackles without missing a single one in a herculean defensive effort, and forced two turnovers in a much improved performance. Warburton is an openside through and through, and two opensides doesn't work for Wales, this is clear.

So where do Wales go from here?

Firstly they need to just work on basic skills. Learning how to execute two-on-one's and three-on-two's, is a basic principle that any self respecting rugby player (forward or back) should be able to pull of. Wales have set up those opportunities on multiple occasions this championship and yet have lacked the core skills to finish them off. Often drifting across the pitch and closing the space down of the wider players, or panicking not trusting themselves and putting a kick in instead. It's great that they are looking to develop this wider scoring style, but they are missing that final piece of the puzzle to make it successful. It doesn't seem like something that is too hard to fix, it's just a case of being able to pull it off at Test match intensity and under pressure. We know these players have the ability, Liam Williams does it week-in week-out, and Jonathan Davies was doing it for the Lions not too long ago. As mentioned earlier, would the introduction of Gareth Anscombe earlier in the game, with those handling skills developed in the Southern Hemisphere give Wales that play-maker wider out and allow them to cross the white-wash?

He's got pace, can he
add brains?
Elsewhere, the lineout and maul defence lacked the telescopic arms of Luke Charteris, the scrum wasn't the weapon it was against Ireland and Scotland as Rob Evans struggled against Slimani, as he got on the wrong end of Barnes (and assistant JP Doyle's) law interpretation. At scrum-half Gareth
Davies needs to work on his decision making, on a couple of occasions after making a break he ended up making the wrong call and costing Wales the chance to cause France real problems. His raw pace has proven a remarkable asset in the past, now he just need to apply that to thought processes and link up with his support players.

England at Twickenham is next up (in two weeks), and it is going to be a fearsome prospect. After the World Cup victory for Gatland and his players, England will be looking to return the favour, and under Eddie Jones they are an entirely different prospect. England are on course for a Grand Slam, and rightly so, they have won each of their games in very typical English fashion. Strength upfront has given them the platform and build the phase play, until they can simply great a large overlap and score out wide. England aren't perfect, after an excellent defence in Scotland, they looked flaky against Italy and at points against Ireland fell of one-up tackles and gave Ireland chances to take the game back. England are not setting the tournament alight, but they are winning with commitment and without looking too worried against who they have faced. Wales are going to have to play much better if they hope to win at Twickenham, they have it in them, but England will be confident.

Thursday, 25 February 2016

Wales vs France Preview

Friday nigh rugby is back in Cardiff for another year, and once again it's the French who hope to spoil the festivities for the 70,000 Welsh supporters. Statistically France are the better team coming into this weekend with two wins from two in the tournament thus far, while Wales had that draw in Dublin. However realistically France have scraped through their two wins in Paris and coming to the cauldron of - the recently renamed - Principality Stadium will be an entirely different experience for this new look French outfit, especially with the noise and fire show before hand which has derailed opponents on more than one occasion.

Noves is still finding his feet as an international coach.
Under Guy Noves France have looked certainly more adventurous and exciting than the last four years under Saint-Andre. However they have lacked lethal execution and handling has let them down on multiple occasions, and certainly against Italy who looked to attack wide early they looked vulnerable to the outside-centre channel in defence. Against Ireland in match two it wasn't so apparent, but Ireland aren't designed or drilled to look to the wide attack all that often, and so the big French forwards were capable of defending the narrow channels as befit's their Top 14 systems and limiting Ireland to less than 10 points.

In attack France have certainly pulled off some good tries. Against Italy they scored three tries, two of which came from excellent handling and timing of passes in the wider channels to allow their wingers to dive in at the corner. Surprisingly they didn't get much satisfaction from their driving maul, a weapon for over a decade for the men in blue, and had to instead rely on strong carrying around the fringes. Against Ireland it was an awful first half with no set piece platform, especially at the scrum. The second half was a different story and the loss of Ben Arous could be sorely felt when they face the youthful yet talented Scarlets pairing of Rob Evans and Samson Lee.

The French team named to take the field Friday night has noticable changes from the Ireland game. Crucially however fly-half Plisson starts his third game in a row, brilliant for both player and team in the development of play style and building confidence in the team. However there is a change at scrum half, but it's probably for the better, Machenaud is an extremely talented player who now plays inside the legendary Dan Carter every week, it is a dangerous prospect that Wales will have to be alert to. Elsewhere in the centre's Jonathan Danty is proving to be a wonderful international player, capable of giving France front foot ball along with a neat pair of hands to deliver passes which can unlock defences. The pack is still lacking something under Noves, the back-row isn't quite functioning not really taking the game by the scruff of the neck and the second row's need to start earning the possession and grafting more around the park.

Machenaud has come on leaps and bounds alongside Dan Carter, can he step up for France tomorrow night?


Warburton hasn't been at his best so far, but he likes
 playing France.
Wales are also a team in transition, trying to develop their attacking style away from the successful, if predictable, "Warrenball". It didn't work in Ireland really, and against Scotland it had marginal success, but what won the game was the 15 minute period Wales reverted to type and used their power. Wales' biggest issue has been the breakdown battle this year, with both Warburton and Tipuric playing many had hoped they would be dominating the breakdown and wining dozen's of turnovers. Instead Wales have looked weak at the contact area, unable to slow the opposition's ball down and give their defensive line to set. The return of Lydiate and Warburton shifting back to his usual openside role should see a return to type for Wales, especially against a French team that themselves have lacked for speed of ball and who lack that "true" openside flanker who can get in and force a turnover. Two years ago Warburton was named man of the match in a true superhero display can he perform the same again back with his old mate Lydiate beside him.

Elsewhere Gatland has given Alex Cuthbert another chance to re-find the form that made him so lethal and saw him score in a Lions shirt. It's been a long year for the Cardiff Blues player, struggling for form, unable to make an impact in many games and the tries had dried up. He became a scapegoat for the Welsh public - unjustifiably sometimes - and it clearly affected him. However the comments coming from the coaching stuff this season seem positive for Cuthbert, and with Wales looking for tries in the wider channels someone with Cuthberts speed and size could prove more than useful. And we saw just how good he is against the best in South Africa a year and a half ago where he was a one man wrecking ball scattering the notoriously giant Springboks this way and that. If he is to reclaim his old shirt it's the sort of performance he needs to put in tomorrow night. His biggest weakness - always - has been his defence, he has an alarming tendency to make the wrong decision, which leaves teams glaring opportunities to exploit, something that against the likes of Vatakawa could be a critical point in deciding who will win the game.
Alex Cuthbert will hope he can find the form he showed in South Africa two years ago, can he find the try line again?

After watching both France and Wales play for two weeks, I expect Wales to return to Warrenball and gain a bit of momentum for the rest of the tournament. Expect Jamie Roberts to unleash yet another herculean display in both attack and defence, it will be a ferocious battle between him and Danty, but I expect experience to win out in that duel. Biggar should have the edge on Plisson, and his aerial ability could prove highly effective against a French team which don't possess any "masters" of the air compared to Wales' Liam Williams and Biggar. Despite the likelihood of Wales attempting to dominate the gainline with Roberts, North and Faletau; I do hope they learn from Italy and how easily Campagnaro found it to cross the gainline by taking on the french in the 13-channel and achieving line-breaks from which the likes of Cuthbert and Gareth Davies can run support lines and finish it of. And with the quality of Jonathan Davies in the Welsh 13 shirt it is not an
Danty vs Roberts could prove to be titanic as the new boy battles
the veteran.
impossibility, he has the speed, strength and intelligence to find those spaces and take on Mermoz.

Overall I do believe Wales - despite some luke warm performances - have shown enough that they will beat France tomorrow night. France are still struggling to understand the game they want to play under their new coach, and have some inconsistencies at the set piece that could cost them against a very secure Wales scrum and lineout. If anyone is going to prove the difference for France it will be Machenaud at scrum half.

Predicted Result: Wales by a score
Crucial Players: Wales: Jamie Roberts; France: Maxime Machenaud

Wednesday, 10 February 2016

Tough Wales battle back in Dublin

It certainly was a fierce opening weekend to the post-World Cup 6 Nations. The game in Paris swung back and forth more times than a metronome, with neither team showing considerable control of the game. Up in Scotland, Eddie Jones' England choked the life out of the men in blue, suffocating the match in an incredibly powerful and effective display. Meanwhile out in Dublin, Wales and Ireland produced yet another closely contested arm wrestle that both teams could have won.

Ireland and Wales duked it out in a full on aggressive test match that left bodies lying everywhere.

In the end it finished honours even which was a justifiable result for all those involved. In post match interviews it seemed the Welsh were the more disappointed of the two. Whereas the Irish were just disappointed about losing, the men in red looked like they had lost. In the final 20 minutes, if any team was going to take all the point, it looked like Wales were in charge. Lead by the ferocious ball carrying and thunderous tackles of Jamie Roberts, Wales were camped inside Ireland's half for long lengths of time. Although to be fair to Ireland they avoided giving away any penalties to give Wales the victory which seems to getting a very difficult thing to do these days. Plenty of credit should also go to referee Garces for keeping the breakdown a fair contest throughout - although he did miss a few glaring forward passes from both sides.
Priestland had a measured performance
in Dublin.

The pre-match build up was largely focused on the fly-half battle, between the two Lion's prospects
for the 10 shirt. Sadly it didn't last as Dan Biggar was injured within the first minute, and eventually limped off after twenty minutes. Which meant the inclusion of Rhys Priestland, many fans (including myself) felt that would be the nail in the Welsh coffin. At first it seemed our fears were vindicated, with practically his first touch of the ball dropping a pass, which while it wasn't a great pass was still catchable, before allowing Devin Toner to collect the ball and break away. Shortly afterwards, Toner again caused problems charging down scrum half Davies' box kick, instead of simply touching the ball down and calming everything down with a 22m drop out, Priestland panicked producing a hap-hazard sliced clearance kick. A few phases later Connor Murray was diving over the try line to give Ireland a 13 point lead.

It looked an impossible task for Wales at this point, two scores down and without arguably their form player. Instead Wales stepped up and fought back, with their scrum to the fore. A succession of scrum penalties on the Ireland 5m line lead to Talupe Faletau powered over the line. After his earlier wobbles Priestland seemed to find his old confidence, moving Wales around the park with some crisp passing and getting them out of some tight spots with some excellent clearance kicks. If Biggar is injured for Scotland next week then Priestland looks stable enough to step into the famed shirt, although Anscombe will also be pushing for the privilege.

The other topic widely discussed by the media and pundits is whether Wales were going to finally adopt a more expansive and adventurous game plan. On first appearance Jamie Roberts crash balls were still heavily prominent; but that is justified it has been highly effective for years, the desired "expansion" shouldn't replaced Warrenball, but instead be a layer added on top. This looked like it was beginning to happen, Wales getting North on the ball in and around the 13 channel looking to utilise his size and speed by bringing him in from the blindside. Jonathan Davies' return added the extra dimension that was missing in the world cup, the little kicks in behind the defence, forcing the opposition to turn and Wales to put pressure on. The only glaring issue for Wales in the wider areas was the backs drifted far too much on the ball, allowing the Irish defence to shift across the pitch without much issue. Wales produced a few opportunities, but players needed to straighten up and fix
The return of Davies increased Wales' portency
their man before shifting the ball out, it's a simple thing but it makes a large difference.

In addition Wales were not afraid to have forwards in the outside channels, allowing Wales to play a more expansive game and have forwards around in case of a breakdown. This had it's problems in the obvious lack in ability between forwards and backs, killing a couple of potential try scoring opportunities, but that is a price that will have to be paid. But this is an indicator of Wales attempting to play like Southern Hemisphere sides, trusting forwards to execute 2-on-1's and 3-on-2's, the only reason it didn't work this weekend was due to a lack of skills. Something that can be worked upon, even if it will never be as intrinsic as the Kiwi forwards. It's a start.

Lastly, many eyebrows were raised by the selection of Rob Evans over the veteran Gethin Jenkins or even top scrummager Paul James. Rob Evans is seen as the future and after this showing he is also the present, up against a renowned - if weakened - Irish scrum he was part of a dominant Welsh pack. And in the loose he was as industrious and active as the man he replaced, making a number of tackles and a large number of carries. He was replaced quite early in the second half which shows he still has a short way to go on the stamina front, but he could easily be Wales' first choice by the end of the 6 Nations. Gatland is sure to utlise the likes of Jenkins and James effectively during the championship both as starters and replacements, but also to help teach the new generation and turn them into the top class props they are capable of being.
Rob Evans produced an excellent display, proving he is the ready replacement for veteran Gethin Jenkins.

Russell lacked in confidence against
England.
Looking ahead to next weekend, how are Scotland looking. In short they looked rusty, a lot of players were off their best, and they seemed incapable of executing an attacking game, not to mention a constant slew of basic handling errors costing them possession and territory. Finn Russell so widely praised during the World Cup seemed devoid of confidence. Greig Laidlaw the hero of Scotland's campaign in September/October looked tired, slow to every breakdown which cost Scotland any sort of tempo. The forwards struggled to get over the gain line, and classy centre Mark Bennett was clearly low on match experience. However there were positives among the defeat. The scrum was solid, if actually stronger than England's; Stuart Hogg looked a threat every time he had the ball and constantly looked to challenge the English kick chase; and John Hardie has continued his great form fighting at every breakdown and tackling everything he could find.

It's going to be tough for Scotland to find form at a sell-out Principality Stadium (formerly Millennium Stadium), but they could still cause Wales problems. The scrum will be a big battle, and I think potentially Scotland have the edge, which could cause Gatland to select Jenkins or James to start on Saturday. Scotland also tried to use the double open-side system that served Australia so well, but it didn't quite work, to be fair neither did it for Wales. The main reason it didn't work for Scotland was because they lacked any ferocity in defence, which meant they were always on the back foot limiting the chances the flankers had to get involved. For Wales the end result was the same, but their problem was arch jackler Warburton was two yards further from the initial breakdown after every set piece due to playing 6 instead of 7. Two yards doesn't sound much, but it's another one or two seconds which Warburton is behind the tackle point meaning he can't get set over the ball and strong before the clear out arrives.

If Wales want to Warburton at his best they need to select him at 7 in my opinion, and as big an admirer I am of Justin Tipuric, Warburton's breakdown ability at international level is a big presence than Tipuric. Tipuric also has the ability to make an impact from the bench, something that Warburton is less likely to pull off, although to really make an impact on a game he needs more than 10 minutes at the end of a game. Wales - and Gatland - have known their best back-row balance for four years now Lydiate-Warburton-Faletau. They provide the complete package and balance each other expertly, it's an unpopular opinion among the Welsh public but I feel it's the best trio we can put out, even if Tipuric is a "better player".
The Lydiate-Warburton-Faletau has been so successful since it's inception.


There are few other selection issues heading to Saturday, other than the hope that Biggar is fit, although if not Priestland looks capable enough to fill the void once again. At fullback Liam Williams will have had another week of conditioning and training on top of the full 80 in Dublin and will be looking once again like his best adding that extra dimension to Wales' game. Tom James had little impact on the game, although his defence was noted shutting down one massive break with excellent reading of the play. In the pack at loosehead as mentioned we could the return of Jenkins to combat WP Nel on the Scottish tight-head although Rob Evans did nothing wrong on Sunday. At lock, alongside Alun Wyn Jones, Charteris provides plenty of lineout ability and an endless work ethic for defence, however against the gritty Scotland pack it might be worth starting Bradley Davies and battering the fringe defence for the first 50-60 minutes.

The game plan should remain largely the same as it did against Ireland. Roberts' ball carrying ability has improved since signing for Harlequins hitting harder and faster with better lines and should be used. The encouraging signs of the additional usage of George North has to continue and become even more effective, if Wales can get him to either run into gaps created by offloads in and out-off the tackle; or get him to set up the offloads by drawing two defenders to him - as he did all game against Ireland - then the likes of Liam Williams and Tom James could rake in the tries. The new layer in Wales' arsenal is a wonderful thing and should be built upon against Scotland. Last year Wales used the aerial ability of their backline to beat the Scots, and England used it effectively too this weekend, if Biggar returns in addition to Williams, James and Roberts it's a method that should be considered again. I think Wales will have too much for Scotland especially in front of 74,000 supporters, but it's not a game that can be taken lightly.

Prediction Wales -  by 8+ points

Wales Line-Up
Backs: L Williams, G North, J Davies, J Roberts, T James, D Biggar/R Priestland, G Davies
Forwards: R Evans, S Baldwin, S Lee, B Davies, AW Jones, D Lydiate, S Warburton, T Faletau
Subs: K Owens, G Jenkins, T Francis, L Charteris, J Tipuric, A Davies, R Priestland/G Anscombe, H Amos

Wednesday, 3 February 2016

6 Nations Preview Ireland, Scotland & Wales

We've already looked at England and the two continental teams (France & Italy) in the first part of this Preview. Now it's time for the Celtic Nations.

Ireland

Who replaces POC?
Double champions, they're favourites in a lot of people's eyes, despite their catastrophic collapse against Argentina in the World Cup Quarter Finals. However it's not plain sailing for Irish Rugby at the moment, they've lost their long standing talisman in Paul O'Connell, no Irish teams made the knockout stages of the Champions Cup, and Jonathan Sexton is once again struggling with concussion related issues. The injury issues don't stop in their on-field general, they are also missing the tough as stone O'Mahony at flanker, Iain Henderson who is seen as O'Connell's replacement, prolific try scorer Tommy Bowe, and Luke Fitzgerald has been ruled out too. Not to mention three front rowers out of action.

It's not all doom and gloom across the Irish Sea, Joe Schmidt has spent much of his tenure developing considerable squad depth in practically every position - except maybe at half-back. So they are more than capable of plugging these holes with quality, it's just the number of first choice options missing that could scupper their chances this year. Most importantly Schimdt needs to find a centre partnership that could provide some midfield threat, Ireland have become the biggest exponents of choking the life out of a game over recent years, rather than being known for scoring tries they prefer to deny the game many points. In the end it's what let them down during the World Cup. This system can be seen forthright in Schmidt's selection at centre with Henshaw and Payne, two players who before putting on the green shirt were more accustomed to the fullback position. Typifying the kicking game so perfectly executed by Schmidt & Sexton. With many teams talking about taking a lead out of the Southern Hemisphere book, it might be time for Ireland to try youth and exuberance instead, Henshaw can stay he's shown his qualities as a tough strong centre in the mould of Jamie Roberts, I would like to see the introduction of Ulsterman Stuart McCloskey who has been terrorising defences in the PRO12 this year. Big and powerful, with a deft boot and soft hands incredibly capable of pulling out the offloads which can unpick defences.
Stuart McCloskey is going to be a future star for Ireland, will he feature this year?
Other than the Ireland team picks itself, the bullocking Sean O'Brien and the professional Heaslip slot into the backrow, Toner adds height to the lineout and captain Rory Best lead's the pack from the front. Murray and Sexton continue their world class partnership, the wing berths have half a dozen players wanting to fill them, and Rob Kearney will look to rule the skies with his excellent catching ability.

Starting against Wales in Dublin promises to be a tasty encounter to round out the first weekend. It's been a ding-dong battle between Wales and Ireland over the last decade or so, neither team able to consistently beat the other. Ireland will hope home advantage will count for plenty - even if Wales won the last time in Dublin - and kick off their title defence with a win. If not it could be a long year with both France and England away after Wales, which will be very tricky places to restart the title defence at.

Star Player: Jonathan Sexton
Player to Watch: Stuart McCloskey

Scotland

What a World Cup Scotland had: they beat giant killers Japan in a second half rout, succumbed to the physicality of South Africa, and then almost flunked out the tournament against Samoa. All before having the game of their careers against eventual runners up Australia, yes they should have won, but that's in the past and Scotland have to move on from that heart-ache. Wales have shown what can happen after a team have a wonderfully successful World Cup campaign (see 2011), and use the heartache in the following 6 Nations, Scotland should follow suit.

Bennet back form injury just in time
There is plenty of hope for Scotland in this tournament, they're not struggling with a lot of injuries, only really at centre, but Mark Bennett has made a timely return to ease concerns and Duncan Taylor is having a great time playing for table topping Saracens in the Aviva Premiership. In the PRO12 both Scottish teams are having considerable success, Edinburgh currently sit in the play-off positions, and Glasgow have been playing strong rugby despite sitting in 8th (although they do have two games to play). They possess talent across the board, WP Nel became a fan favourite for his scrummaging ability in the World Cup, Finn Russell is becoming an assured fly-half who makes few mistakes, John Hardie provides them with serious breakdown firepower, and the Gray brothers are a fantastic partnership in the engine room. Stuart Hogg is their biggest attacking threat, always looking to run the ball back and incredibly good at scything through would-be tacklers with regularity. And that's before you mention his siege cannon of a boot, which provides a safe exit route from their 22, and can knock over 50+ meter penalties should it be needed.

Perhaps most important to the Scotland cause if scrum-half and captain Greig Laidlaw. He had his doubters going into the World Cup, that perhaps he should be replaced by the young and impressive Hidalgo-Clyne. He proved all of them wrong, leading Scotland through difficult matches, perfectly running the game, and kicking with a 90% kicking accuracy which constantly kept the scoreboard ticking over. He was arguably the best scrum half at the World Cup, and he needs to take this form into the 6 Nations if Scotland want to succeed.
Laidlaw is the heartbeat of Scotland, his goal kicking will prove crucial too

If Scotland are going to have any problems it is likely to arise from attrition more than anything, while the first choice players provide plenty of talent, the back ups are not of the same calibre. If Scotland suffer any injuries to key players (see Laidlaw, Hogg, Russell or Nel) they could begin to falter. The opening weekend provides the perfect chance to start strong, the Calcutta Cup is the best way to get the Scottish players excited for the first match and give it their all. After that is two away games in Cardiff and Rome, tricky but not impossible, win at Murrayfield and momentum will start to build.

Star Player: Greig Laidlaw
Player to Watch: Sam Hidalgo-Clyne

Wales

Settled, confident and pundit's favourite. Wales know what they're doing in the 6 Nations, the most successful team in the last decade they know what it takes to win this championship. They are practically back to full strength, with the exception of missing Leigh Halfpenny and Rhys Webb from the starting team. And thanks to the most horrific run of injuries during the World Cup have built up significant strength in depth. Perhaps most importantly they have Test Lion Jonathan Davies back and playing excellent rugby for his club - Clermont. He has been a linchpin in the Welsh set up for years, and his partnership with Jamie Roberts is important, especially in defence, the style which Wales defends involves the outside centre rushing hard, and reading the opposition attack, allowing Wales to shut them down deep behind the gainline if possible. 
Jonathan Davies' timely return could help Wales reclaim their title

Warren Gatland has been attacked quite extensively in the last few weeks for Wales' attacking system, and that it lacks creativity and the ability to score tries. This may be true, as such Gatland and Howley (Wales attacking coach) have promised a new arrow to the Welsh attacking quiver alongside infamous "Warrenball". With Liam Williams back from injury and looking lethal, Hallam Amos provides much needed finishing ability and footballing ability out wide too, and Jonathan Davies has shown again and again what he brings in attack. At fly-half Dan Biggar became a super-star during the World Cup and will be looking to continue his form and be the "Governor" of Gatland's side, at scrum half there is a fight between all three players, Gareth Davies is the man in possession but there are questions over his game management and the fact that rival Aled Davies has kept him on the bench at the Scarlets this season. Then there is Lloyd Williams who I've always seen as the best tactical scrum-half in Wales and could play an important role through the tournament.

In the pack Sam Warburton lacks game time, but has always proven his ability at Test Level and should not be taken lightly because of it. Once again the debate rages whether to select Tipuric or Lydiate alongside the captain. Each provide widely different qualities and it could become a horses for courses selection along the road and it could provide a challenge for Wales' opponents not entirely sure what type of game Wales will bring to the game. Samson Lee wasn't at his best in the World Cup but with a couple of months of game-time under his belt he looks ready to become the replacement to Adam Jones he was touted to be. In the locks they have the world class Alun Wyn Jones, who
Fan favourite Tipuric is set to start against Ireland
literally never takes a backwards step, alongside either enforcer Bradley Davies or the giraffe like Charteris. Wales are well covered in all positions in the scrum and will not be concerned about injuries to the point that other teams might be. 

If Wales' campaign is going to fall down anywhere, it will be in the first week. With some crucial players still coming back from lengthy lay offs they could struggle in Dublin against and Irish team who will be looking to win three championships in a row. Ireland are huge exponents of the kicking game and the Welsh back-three will need to be fit and raring to go ready to dog-fight across the skies for most of the game. It could be an issue. After that it's two home games on the bounce against Scotland and France, two games the players should be confident of winning especially in the (newly named) Principality Stadium.

Star Player: Alun Wyn Jones
Player to Watch: Hallam Amos

Monday, 1 February 2016

6 Nations Preview - England, France & Italy

The greatest annual tournament is back next weekend, and it's more open than ever before. Five teams have a realistic chance of wining the tournament, especially with two new coaches for England and France. After the attacking flair shown at the end of last years tournament, and the wonderful nature in which the World Cup was played, could we be in store for not only a fiercely competitive tournament but one filled with exciting width play and style? We shall look at each team as they head into the tournament, and where they are likely to finish.

England

Eddie Jones looks to rebuild England
The World Cup was a mess, but they are starting afresh with entirely new coaching set up and a new captain too. In all honesty despite the struggles last time out, England look in good shape heading into the 6 Nations. With 5 teams through to the European Champions Cup knockout stages, lead the way by the all conquering Saracens. It will certainly be interesting as to Eddie Jones' first team selection, his first 23 man squad raised some eyebrows, mainly because it consisted of players that were present during the World Cup. No room for arguably the best outside centre in European rugby - Elliot Daley - with Jones sticking with the internationally proven Jonathan Joseph instead.

The argument is that going up to Murrayfield first out would be the definition of a baptism of fire and not the greatest place to earn your first international cap. It tells us Eddie Jones is looking to get through this 6 Nations with as many wins as he can get, no consideration for the future yet. It's a pragmatic approach but could lead to some England fans getting frustrated with the same players on the field that were there under Lancaster.

Eddie Jones is known to be a coach who really likes the idea of two play makers in the backline, it seems he is going for the same style under England, with the selection of Ollie Devoto and reports of Ford and Farrell playing alongside each other. Without a doubt in the future it seem Henry Slade will be slotted into the 12 jersey, which just leaves the question of who will fill the outside centre channel.
Where does Tuilagi fit in?
It's a tricky selection with Daley, Joseph and the returning Tuilagi all demanding consideration. I suppose it comes down to what game plan Jones wants to play. Looking back to when he coached Japan, he might like the idea of Tuilagi at 13, offering serious ball carrying, gain line ability to compliment the passing ability at 10 and 12. Or instead he could move the bruising Manu into 12 and add the gas of Joseph and Daley outside him. This can be achieved with Jones' preffered twin playmaker system if England select the likes of Goode at fullback.

This 6 Nations seems to still be a little early for Tuilagi who is still coming back from a lengthy injury, which leaves England a little light on bulk and could heavily rely on their forward carriers. James Haskell is playing incredibly well for Wasps, and the Saracens pack is dominating everyone they come across. If England can take the form of their forwards into this campaign they will be a really tough team to beat. While they may still be lacking the classic "jackle" open-side flanker, they still have a selection of players who can win turnovers and slow down the opponents ball. It is not something that should drastically affect them this year.

Their first game is against Scotland, it's a tough fixture especially with the confidence Scotland have from the World Cup. I don't know if England can take Scotland at Murrayfield with players still learning the new attacking systems. It could prove the opposite with Scotland being unable to cope with a brand new England team however.

Star Player: Mike Brown
Player to Watch: Elliot Daley

France

Another like England with a brand new coach, who also seems to have brought a breath of fresh air into the squad. Gone is the wrecking ball Basteraud instead replaced with more balanced runners. France have to replace the legendary Duisatoir after his retirement from the game, but new coach Noves seems to be giving youth a chance and adding plenty of young exciting backrowers into the mix alongside the veteran Picamoles. 

Fofana has always been amazing, will it finally
be in a functional French side?
Frances always have been a mixed bag team, but under Saint-Andre they seemed a team on the wane, unable to control a game, having to rely heavily on a moment of magic to win them a game. Talent is not exactly a quality lacking in France with backs famed for their ability to beat a man and break the line, none more so than Fofana. Fofana is likely to thrive under the new coaching system a team looking far more lethal and potent in attack, with a pack of forwards that offer considerable ball carrying ability combined with athleticism. 

French club's have struggled a little in the Champions Cup this season. Clermont were touted as favourites for this years tournament, and instead were knocked out in the pools. Toulon got out of their pool the hard way in the end after Wasps dismantled them in the early rounds. Despite this France could provide a piece of the unknown to this tournament, not sure if they'll spark back to life or be the damn squib they have been for a while. Specific players, in important positions, have been showing their quality during the season, Fofana, Guidrado, and Picamoles have been playing very well week in, week out.

The biggest struggle for France for years has been finding a half-back partnership that clicks and runs the game well together. Morgan Parra has more often than not been chosen at scrum half for years, and with the nickname of "Little General" he is known for his ability to run a game and make the right decision at the right time. The biggest problem has been finding a fly-half to play outside him. France have gone through uncountable numbers of fly-halves in the last few years, which is probably the main reason they've struggled for game contingency. There is still no stand out performer in France, so it will probably be the case that Guy Noves will have to make his selection early and stick with him for the tournament in the hope he can find his feet and form the required partnership.
Parra hopes he'll have a consistent fly-half outside of him for the duration of this tournament
Up first is Italy in Paris, it should be an easy game for France, and I expect a considerable score. Especially after the final weekend last year, France might be looking to pile on the points early this time around in case it comes down to points difference yet again. It will be the perfect fixture for Noves to play new caps and to test our his new gameplan. Provided France get on the front foot early on, the crowd will be behind them and they should walk to victory.

Star Player: Wesley Fofana
Player to Watch: Jonathan Danty

Italy

Campagnaro provides quality in the Italian backline
This is going to be a very tough tournament for Italy, they are the only team hasn't progressed in recent years, and despite the occasional heroic victory they've never strung together a consistent performance. As such the calls for the likes of Georgia to be included are stronger than ever. Never the less they still provide a potential banana skin for the big teams and should never just be considered an easy win. With the super human Sergio Parisse providing the skill set to practically become a team in his own right, they possess someone who will never give in. A selection of young players are starting to find their feet in international rugby, with Gori becoming a great scrum half especially to play a fast tempo game. Campagnaro is plying his trade for Exter Chiefs - currently second in the Aviva Premiership - and should hopefully add his skill set and ability to Italy's
backline. 

The Italian clubs are struggling at the bottom of the PRO12, and while they cause opponents problems at home, on the road they are often put to the sword with relative ease. It is an issue for the national coach when the club sides provide limited success and barren ground for the development of youthful talent. Never more so in the continued inability to find a competent fly half, in all faceats of the game. We've had flash in the pan 10's with Luciano Orquera tearing apart France one week before flailing with no control the next week, and Tomasso Allan coming from Scotland's youth structure, having some success but never grasping the shirt. The biggest issue has been not having a Test level goal kicker to knock over the points on a regular basis and give them footholds in games.

With the excitment and form of all the other teams coming into this 6 Nations, I feel this could be Italy's worst tournament in a few years. And teams will be looking to pile on the points against them in case it comes down to points difference like last year.

Star Player: Sergio Parisse
Players to Watch: Michele Campagnaro