Wales vs France Preview

Friday nigh rugby is back in Cardiff for another year, and once again it's the French who hope to spoil the festivities for the 70,000 Welsh supporters. Statistically France are the better team coming into this weekend with two wins from two in the tournament thus far, while Wales had that draw in Dublin. However realistically France have scraped through their two wins in Paris and coming to the cauldron of - the recently renamed - Principality Stadium will be an entirely different experience for this new look French outfit, especially with the noise and fire show before hand which has derailed opponents on more than one occasion.

Noves is still finding his feet as an international coach.

Under Guy Noves France have looked certainly more adventurous and exciting than the last four years under Saint-Andre. However they have lacked lethal execution and handling has let them down on multiple occasions, and certainly against Italy who looked to attack wide early they looked vulnerable to the outside-centre channel in defence. Against Ireland in match two it wasn't so apparent, but Ireland aren't designed or drilled to look to the wide attack all that often, and so the big French forwards were capable of defending the narrow channels as befit's their Top 14 systems and limiting Ireland to less than 10 points.

In attack France have certainly pulled off some good tries. Against Italy they scored three tries, two of which came from excellent handling and timing of passes in the wider channels to allow their wingers to dive in at the corner. Surprisingly they didn't get much satisfaction from their driving maul, a weapon for over a decade for the men in blue, and had to instead rely on strong carrying around the fringes. Against Ireland it was an awful first half with no set piece platform, especially at the scrum. The second half was a different story and the loss of Ben Arous could be sorely felt when they face the youthful yet talented Scarlets pairing of Rob Evans and Samson Lee.

The French team named to take the field Friday night has noticable changes from the Ireland game. Crucially however fly-half Plisson starts his third game in a row, brilliant for both player and team in the development of play style and building confidence in the team. However there is a change at scrum half, but it's probably for the better, Machenaud is an extremely talented player who now plays inside the legendary Dan Carter every week, it is a dangerous prospect that Wales will have to be alert to. Elsewhere in the centre's Jonathan Danty is proving to be a wonderful international player, capable of giving France front foot ball along with a neat pair of hands to deliver passes which can unlock defences. The pack is still lacking something under Noves, the back-row isn't quite functioning not really taking the game by the scruff of the neck and the second row's need to start earning the possession and grafting more around the park.

Machenaud has come on leaps and bounds alongside Dan Carter, can he step up for France tomorrow night?

Warburton hasn't been at his best so far, but he likes
 playing France.

Wales are also a team in transition, trying to develop their attacking style away from the successful, if predictable, "Warrenball". It didn't work in Ireland really, and against Scotland it had marginal success, but what won the game was the 15 minute period Wales reverted to type and used their power. Wales' biggest issue has been the breakdown battle this year, with both Warburton and Tipuric playing many had hoped they would be dominating the breakdown and wining dozen's of turnovers. Instead Wales have looked weak at the contact area, unable to slow the opposition's ball down and give their defensive line to set. The return of Lydiate and Warburton shifting back to his usual openside role should see a return to type for Wales, especially against a French team that themselves have lacked for speed of ball and who lack that "true" openside flanker who can get in and force a turnover. Two years ago Warburton was named man of the match in a true superhero display can he perform the same again back with his old mate Lydiate beside him.

Elsewhere Gatland has given Alex Cuthbert another chance to re-find the form that made him so lethal and saw him score in a Lions shirt. It's been a long year for the Cardiff Blues player, struggling for form, unable to make an impact in many games and the tries had dried up. He became a scapegoat for the Welsh public - unjustifiably sometimes - and it clearly affected him. However the comments coming from the coaching stuff this season seem positive for Cuthbert, and with Wales looking for tries in the wider channels someone with Cuthberts speed and size could prove more than useful. And we saw just how good he is against the best in South Africa a year and a half ago where he was a one man wrecking ball scattering the notoriously giant Springboks this way and that. If he is to reclaim his old shirt it's the sort of performance he needs to put in tomorrow night. His biggest weakness - always - has been his defence, he has an alarming tendency to make the wrong decision, which leaves teams glaring opportunities to exploit, something that against the likes of Vatakawa could be a critical point in deciding who will win the game.

Alex Cuthbert will hope he can find the form he showed in South Africa two years ago, can he find the try line again?

After watching both France and Wales play for two weeks, I expect Wales to return to Warrenball and gain a bit of momentum for the rest of the tournament. Expect Jamie Roberts to unleash yet another herculean display in both attack and defence, it will be a ferocious battle between him and Danty, but I expect experience to win out in that duel. Biggar should have the edge on Plisson, and his aerial ability could prove highly effective against a French team which don't possess any "masters" of the air compared to Wales' Liam Williams and Biggar. Despite the likelihood of Wales attempting to dominate the gainline with Roberts, North and Faletau; I do hope they learn from Italy and how easily Campagnaro found it to cross the gainline by taking on the french in the 13-channel and achieving line-breaks from which the likes of Cuthbert and Gareth Davies can run support lines and finish it of. And with the quality of Jonathan Davies in the Welsh 13 shirt it is not an

Danty vs Roberts could prove to be titanic as the new boy battles
the veteran.

impossibility, he has the speed, strength and intelligence to find those spaces and take on Mermoz.

Overall I do believe Wales - despite some luke warm performances - have shown enough that they will beat France tomorrow night. France are still struggling to understand the game they want to play under their new coach, and have some inconsistencies at the set piece that could cost them against a very secure Wales scrum and lineout. If anyone is going to prove the difference for France it will be Machenaud at scrum half.

Predicted Result: Wales by a score
Crucial Players: Wales: Jamie Roberts; France: Maxime Machenaud