The Rugby Championship is back. The four southern hemisphere giants will once again do battle to determine who is the best. Last year New Zealand lost the trophy for the first time, only a ferocious fixture in Sydney denied them the trophy, before going on to win the World Cup.
Once again New Zealand will go in favourites after their convincing series win against the Welsh a few months ago. Although they are by no means the force they were last year, it's been nine months since they lost the legends of McCaw; plus Carter, Nonu and Smith from their back line, and despite three tests and a fantastic Super Rugby season those holes are still there.
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| The 6 All Black legends that retired at the end of the World Cup (Smith, Carter, Nonu, Mealamu, McCaw, Woodcock) |
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| Ardie Savea is a Hurricanes favourite. |
At openside flanker the problem isn't the lack of a replacement, it is instead a "Sophie's Choice" for the 7 shirt. Who do you choose? Sam Cane the prince to McCaw's crown, the heir apparent for nigh on half a decade. 34 caps, and a handful of captain's appearance along the way too. He was the reassuring presence to the All Blacks should the worse happen to their leader, and he proved in the World Cup just how good of a player he is.
Or. Do you select the rampaging, athletic, former 7's player, Ardie Savea. His Youtube highlight reels are a joy to watch, scoring tries from 50m's, supporting wingers the length of the pitch and making crunching hits all over the park. Detractors have said he's all show and no graft, but the statistics tell the truth. Top tackler in Super Rugby (just ahead of Sam Cane), he wins turnovers with regularity and he's not afraid to do the hard yards either. Sam Cane is in control for now, but Savea is an undeniable talent.
The fly-half debate is similar, Cruden vs Barrett. Cruden was the heir to Carter for a long time, but Barrett has resolved his game management issues and was the focal point of the Highlanders exceptional run in the Super Rugby play off's. Not to mention his world class performance where he took Wales apart easier than Usain Bolt finds winning gold medals. He's in the starting side for the opening weekend with Cruden out through injury, and now is his chance to cement his place as Carter's successor.
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| Fekitoa hasn't yet lived up to his original hype. |
Despite these issues, New Zealand's biggest problem is at centre. When Nonu and Smith announced they would be leaving the black jersey after the World Cup, Kiwi's were upset but not worried. They had the global class of Sonny Bill Williams to fill the 12 shirt, and at outside centre Malakai Fekitoa was being talked up as a future superstar. Since then, Fekitoa hasn't progressed on the international stage and has often looked out of his depth - especially compared to the calm class that was Conrad Smith - throwing into questions whether he is to be the long term choice. Sonny Bill would have walked back into the All Black starting line up after his Olympic foray, if it hadn't ended so abruptly. In the opening fixture Williams suffered a tear to his Achilles Tendon which has put him out of the game for 9 months.
Each have their replacements - for different reasons. Ryan Crotty will hold the inside channel for now, a dependable player who has never put in a poor performance, but he isn't one to set the world alight, a good enough stop gap until next year. While George Moala is the new favourite to seize an opportunity at outside centre, or he would be if he hadn't picked up a knee injury a week before the opening fixture in Sydney. Another player who shone during the final test against Wales in June, the combination of his footwork and power a dangerous combination in the notoriously difficult to defend 13 channel. I think it is a very real possibility that the centre partnership will be very different come the Lions Tour next year.
Elsewhere New Zealand are anything but weak, any side that can afford to put the try scoring machine of Julian Savea on the bench because of "performance issues" is a fearsome prospect. Israel Dagg is back to his mercurial best, Ben Smith is consistently world class and Waisake Naholo is arguably the best finisher in Super Rugby. In the centre of the team the All Blacks possess the greatest No. 8/Scrum Half duo the world has ever seen, bar none. Read and Smith are individually world class, together they are nigh unbeatable. Read's ability to draw in two if not three defenders and
still get an offload away is exceptional, but combine it with the ability for Aaron Smith to know where that ball is going to come out and teams can't defend it. At lock they have Retalick - the best in the world - alongside his old partner Whitelock. Kaino packs down to provide strength and ballast to the backrow.
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| Read and Smith have an almost telepathic link, developed over many years. |
Perhaps New Zealand's only perceived consistent weakness is in the front row. Never a team to claim to possess a dominant scrum, it used to be the area teams like South Africa and England would look to punish them. It is something to consider, but in reality the Kiwi scrum is capable and will always provide Aaron Smith with possession, only likely to give penalties away on the opposition ball. The All Blacks prefer their forwards (props or not) to be able to handle the ball then scrummage, and no one is better in open play than the missing Dane Coles, Hansen will be hoping one of his reserve hookers will put their hand up to put pressure on Coles.
So yes New Zealand are weakened - still - after their World Cup victory, any side needs some time to get their house in order after losing so much talent and experience. But this is the All Blacks they have been prepared for this, building the experience in the replacements for years. The first test will be the biggest challenge, a reinforced Australia side in Sydney. It's a replay of the only match the All Blacks have lost in the last two years, get through that and they'll be on course. So they are still favourites to win the trophy for me, just perhaps not quite as dominant.
Australia vs. New Zealand Kick Off: 20:05
(Sydney); 10:05
(GMT)
