Once again New Zealand will go in favourites after their convincing series win against the Welsh a few months ago. Although they are by no means the force they were last year, it's been nine months since they lost the legends of McCaw; plus Carter, Nonu and Smith from their back line, and despite three tests and a fantastic Super Rugby season those holes are still there.
The 6 All Black legends that retired at the end of the World Cup (Smith, Carter, Nonu, Mealamu, McCaw, Woodcock) |
Ardie Savea is a Hurricanes favourite. |
The fly-half debate is similar, Cruden vs Barrett. Cruden was the heir to Carter for a long time, but Barrett has resolved his game management issues and was the focal point of the Highlanders exceptional run in the Super Rugby play off's. Not to mention his world class performance where he took Wales apart easier than Usain Bolt finds winning gold medals. He's in the starting side for the opening weekend with Cruden out through injury, and now is his chance to cement his place as Carter's successor.
Fekitoa hasn't yet lived up to his original hype. |
Each have their replacements - for different reasons. Ryan Crotty will hold the inside channel for now, a dependable player who has never put in a poor performance, but he isn't one to set the world alight, a good enough stop gap until next year. While George Moala is the new favourite to seize an opportunity at outside centre, or he would be if he hadn't picked up a knee injury a week before the opening fixture in Sydney. Another player who shone during the final test against Wales in June, the combination of his footwork and power a dangerous combination in the notoriously difficult to defend 13 channel. I think it is a very real possibility that the centre partnership will be very different come the Lions Tour next year.
Elsewhere New Zealand are anything but weak, any side that can afford to put the try scoring machine of Julian Savea on the bench because of "performance issues" is a fearsome prospect. Israel Dagg is back to his mercurial best, Ben Smith is consistently world class and Waisake Naholo is arguably the best finisher in Super Rugby. In the centre of the team the All Blacks possess the greatest No. 8/Scrum Half duo the world has ever seen, bar none. Read and Smith are individually world class, together they are nigh unbeatable. Read's ability to draw in two if not three defenders and still get an offload away is exceptional, but combine it with the ability for Aaron Smith to know where that ball is going to come out and teams can't defend it. At lock they have Retalick - the best in the world - alongside his old partner Whitelock. Kaino packs down to provide strength and ballast to the backrow.
Read and Smith have an almost telepathic link, developed over many years. |
So yes New Zealand are weakened - still - after their World Cup victory, any side needs some time to get their house in order after losing so much talent and experience. But this is the All Blacks they have been prepared for this, building the experience in the replacements for years. The first test will be the biggest challenge, a reinforced Australia side in Sydney. It's a replay of the only match the All Blacks have lost in the last two years, get through that and they'll be on course. So they are still favourites to win the trophy for me, just perhaps not quite as dominant.
Australia vs. New Zealand Kick Off: 20:05 (Sydney); 10:05 (GMT)
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