Thursday, 25 May 2017

Lions Match 1 - Who's available?

When the fixture list was announced at the start of the season Warren Gatland would have been aware that a number of players he would be taking on the Lions tour wouldn't be available for selection in the first game - against the Provincial Select XV. Due to the fact the PRO12 and Aviva Premiership finals are to be played exactly one week before, players still representing their clubs will not have had enough time in camp to get up to speed with the Lions' tactics, let alone have recovered from the game or the jet-lag from flying halfway around the world.

With that in mind, Gatland is likely to use the easiest game of the tour as a chance to test some player combinations, give some players low on game time a run-out, and allow the squad to get up to speed with playing together. After the events of last weekend, the coaching staff will have a rictus grin having witnessed Leinster and Saracens lose their semi-finals, with ten players becoming available which they would have been expecting to be without. Taking all of this into account, what is the sort of team that Gatland is likely to field as the 2017 Lions tour get's underway?

Fullback - Stuart Hogg

This actually isn't a difficult decision to make. Not only did Hogg win 6 Nations Player of the Tournament, he is highly regarded as one of the best counter-attacking 15's in world rugby. Throw in the fact that the likes of Halfpenny and Liam Williams are both playing next weekend, Hogg is the only out and out fullback in the squad. Gatland will want to see just how he does being the incumbent, pile the pressure on and see how he copes. Other options are Jared Payne and Anthony Watson, but Hogg deserves to showcase his attacking intent against a weaker side.
Seymour is a proven try scorer, can he make a case?

Wingers - Anthony Watson & Tommy Seymour

Again not a lot of options here, in fact, these are the only options. With North, Nowell, Williams, and Daly all occupied by their final games of the club season, it leaves only two internationallyexperienced wingers to select from (Jonathan Joseph could at a push but why would you). Both are predatory finishers who consistently produce the goods when tries need to be scored. Both are very good in the air as well which is a huge boon against the Kiwi sides who are loving the cross kick at the minute. Seymour, especially I have a lot of praise for, he has a superb work ethic and enjoys using his bulk and footwork to make line breaks around the breakdown. Neither player looks odds on to be in the test team at the minute so this game would be a great opportunity for them to show what they're about. 

Centres - Jonathan Joseph & Ben Te'o

Te'o gets a chance.
After the initial surprise of the selection of England centre Te'o, he clearly needs to be given the earliest possible chance to prove his worth to the team. He developed a bit of a "super-sub" tag under Eddie Jones, so he needs to show how much impact he can have when starting on the field. His defence is typical Gatland play style so he should adapt quite well, if not Henshaw will be on the tour from the start and ready to go, and he fits the same mold. At outside centre is practically a straight shoot-out between Joseph and Jared Payne, the Englishman's selection stems from having an Englishman at twelve primarily. Early on in the tour established partnerships are an important part of the team starting to play as one, it doesn't hurt that Joseph is an extremely talented attacker either who's potential ability to link up with Hogg is tasty.
physicality in attack and

Fly Half - Dan Biggar

The first position we've come across with a wealth of riches, after the unlikely losses for Leinster and Saracens, the Lions went from expecting one fly-half for this game to having all three. Despite this I would still go with Dan Biggar, Sexton and Farrell have experienced the Lions before, Biggar hasn't. This will be a good game for Biggar to try and impose himself on the selection issue. Let's face it Biggar is probably traveling as third choice (mid-week) fly-half behind both his Irish and English counterparts. Why not pit him against the Provincial side and allow him to try and take control of the jersey. Alternatively, you could put Sexton in and try to give him a game to rediscover his form after a disappointing game against the Scarlets.

Scrum Half - Greig Laidlaw

Initially, I was going to put Rhys Webb in here, setting up another established partnership with the Welsh halfbacks. Although since Webb pulled out of the semi-final against Munster instead it is probably a better idea to have him play from the bench and allow him to get over the groin strain fully as he'll likely play a bigger role in the end of tour matches. Instead, I am going for a player who has had a longer rest period, and additionally since his late inclusion into the squad could maybe do with a confidence booster, although it will be interesting to see who takes the kicks between Laidlaw and Biggar.

Laidlaw wasn't expecting to tour, but the first game will allow him to show just how good he is.

Props - Joe Marler & Kyle Sinckler

Sinckler is exciting for
the Lions.
At scrum time the Lions are once again blessed from the results of the semi-finals, every single one of the six props selected for the tour are fit and available for the opening match. Despite this I've gone with the same two props I would have gone with anyway. Marler & Sinckler - both from Quins - won't have played rugby in almost a month by the time of the first match. Because of that, it makes sense to give them a run out and get mentally alert for the rest of the tour. Dan Cole is another whom I expected to be available for the first match anyway, but again he has played more recently than the two Harlequin's.

Hooker - Rory Best

As with the props, Best won't have played in a month by the time of the first kick off, so his inclusion is by no means a surprise. He also brings another leader to the team as they are still coming together which will be important. He'll need to prove his set piece foundations after a nightmare last time he wore the red jersey, but he has been in decent form for Ireland so wouldn't be a surprise if he continues. Jamie George goes on the bench after playing in the semi-finals last weekend, as Ken Owens is still recovering from a minor injury.


Second Row - Iain Henderson & Alun Wyn Jones

Henderson is an old-fashioned second row, physical, hard
to stop, and relentless.
The trend of picking for game-time continues, Henderson being from Ulster hasn't taken part in the knockout stages of the season so really should get a ball in his hands. He is a fantastic player who is probably the most physically brutish of the available second rows in the Lions squad, definitely more of a hard-yards player than the athletic ball skills of Itoje. Alongside him goes another leader who has had very limited game time in the last three months - having been injured at the end of the 6 Nations - Alun Wyn Jones is the warrior who never takes a backward step. Combine that with his previous Lions experience he is a figure which the team can rally around and focus on during the early troublesome periods. 

Backrow - Ross Moriarty, Sam Warburton & Taulupe Faletau

A national combination, check. In need of game time, check. Good balance, check. There are many other options to select from, to be honest, Sean O'Brien and Justin Tipuric being the other options. O'Brien is my selection for the bench. Moriarty gets a chance to prove his selection in the squad was merited with a typically physical performance. Faletau is another with low game time all season, but he has hit an exceptional run of form. Faletau will be looking forward to proving the Kiwi media wrong when they say he is a "mid-week" player at best.

Lastly, there is captain Warburton the most important player in need of game time, he has recently announced that he is fully fit and prepared for the tour, but training fitness and match fitness are very different things. Warburton has shown he can do it in the past, but he's going to need to get as much game time as possible before the first test. This game is an important one for him, he not only needs to get through it but also put in a great performance.

Faletau has been insulted by the NZ-Media this week, he'll love showing them up with an all action display.


Bench

Jamie George - Definition of an impact player, also Ken Owens won't be fit.
Mako Vunipola - Jack McGrath is carrying a small injury, Vunipola adds dynamism from the bench.
Dan Cole - Had a great season for Leicster, will provide experience from the bench.
George Kruis - Been in an out all season with injuries, will probably like getting a game under his belt.
Sean O'Brien - Another with a small niggle who could use the game time, Tipuric close.
Rhys Webb - With Conor Murray in the final, Webb should be over his groin strain to feature for 20 minutes.
Owen Farrell - Close call, but Farrell offers the chance to experiment with him at 12.
Jared Payne - Covers the back line well, classy player who can help provide stablity at the end.

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