One Last Round

I'll admit I didn't see the Lions winning a test match in the series. I felt they would punch hard but that the Kiwi's ability to score, and inability to lose, would be the deciding factor. I'll also happily admit I was wrong. It was a blood and thunder test match played beneath a storm in the windy city of Wellington. While the fans may have been getting drenched the ferocity on the pitch was more than enough to light a fire in the belly and raise a roar. 

The red-card debate will rage on for a few weeks, but given time the result is all that will be remembered. Never the less the Lions did make hard work of that advantage for most of the game. In fact the one try they scored which exploited extreme width was while they too were down a man. Both Lion's tries would have made those in black proud to score them, and stopping New Zealand scoring is a monumental feat these days. There was a lot to digest from the victory, but just what are the key points ahead of the final game, the decider, the game of the decade.

Lions players celebrate victory, in a brutal contest, to level the series 1-1.

The price of penalties

Let's start with the big one. The number of penalties the Lions conceded during the game was horrific. Granted Garces was a little whistle-happy when it came to the breakdown (at least in my opinion), but either way to commit 13 noticed penalisable offenses in a test match is insane, the fact that ten of those gave Barrett the opportunity to kick at goal is far worse. The Lions were fortunate Barrett seemed unable to cope with the conditions on the night and missed three he probably should have nailed - especially given the form he has been in recently. 

Barrett had an off night, will he again though?

At one point the Lions found themselves nine points adrift, the two try double punch proved enough in the end, but you do think given the drier conditions of Auckland in the north will Barrett nail the potential nine other points he left on the pitch? The Lions need to be squeaky clean ahead of another French referee who is likely to have similar views on the breakdown. Mako Vunipola was the prime culprit (with four, and a yellow card) and Gatland will be thinking long and hard as to whether he can trust Vunipola to calm it for the third test.

Should also stress the All Blacks gave away eight penalties which is no small number, but crucially only half were in kickable range, denying the rediscovered peerless boot of Farrell to tick over the scoreboard. Which actually brings us onto point number two.

Territory is everything

Going back to the statistics for a minute the Lions were pinned back for large periods of the game. With only 38% possession the fact they scored two tries shows a clinical edge that pundits have been demanding for a year. The more important number though is where the game was played, 57% of the game was in the Lions half. If anything this makes the Lions fortress wall all the more impressive, normally a Kiwi side with much ball and field dominance would have racked up an immense score line.

Possession & Territory stats courtesy of ESPN.

If the Lions want to once again deny the All Blacks genuine try-scoring opportunities they need to execute a better kicking game. So much was made of the backline containing Sexton, Farrell, Davies, and Daly which could pin the All Blacks back with a range of kicks. Instead, we saw loose kicks, long kicks, or no kicks at all. The coaching staff of both teams want to dominate the territory, it is what both teams have based their game on. Hansen and his charges seemed to win it in Wellington, Niel Jenkins is going to have to get his kickers playing the corners better come Saturday.

Physical Lions

It is important to take into account that the weather didn't strictly allow for the range of passing and intricate play the All Blacks are famed for, although that didn't stop the Lions. At times it looked like the teams had put on the wrong shirts. Instead, the game was dominated by barbaric collisions in the middle of the park as the Lions looked to correct the wrong of being out muscles in Auckland a week prior. 

 The biggest struggle for the All Blacks was making gain line progression without Kaino on the field. The blindside flanker gets through an obscene amount of work which the rest of the back had to pick up: from ball carries to ruck clearance. It meant that Read had to get much more involved in the trenches restricting his ability to link up with the backs in the wider channels. 

Should also commend Sam Warburton at this point for the amount of bruising he took at the breakdown. He didn't make an excessive amount of tackles (Itoje, Faletau and O'Brien handled that), and he didn't really win any classic turnovers. What he did though was just mess things up. A week previously Sam Cane had been the man ruling the breakdown. In Wellington it was the Cardiff man who refused to give the opposition anything at the breakdown. He once again gave everything for the shirt, and simply has to play again in Auckland. 

What is it about Sam Warburton and playing in the second Test of a Lions tour, another monumental effort.

Changes?

Neither team is going to make system-wide changes, the Lions won and at best will look to tweak things that didn't quite click, New Zealand are incredibly settled and know what is best for them. 

The All Blacks need to replace Sonny Bill Williams after his four-week ban, do they trust in their initial call-up with the inexperienced Laumape, or do they parachute in the more experienced Fekitoa. Other than that there may be a recall for the dependable try scorer and defensive solidity of Julian Savea on one wing, as both Ioane and Naholo were largely missing in the windy city.

Meanwhile in red, after O'Brien escaped a ban the back-row will remain untouched. There are likely

Could Vunipola lose his starting shirt over ill discipline?

three areas which could face a change. Jack McGrath could come in for Vunipola who was too reckless last weekend and will hopefully produce a more dominant scrum for the tourists. In the second row, there are loud calls for Lawes to start, but Alun Wyn Jones was ferocious, aggressive, and a leader alongside Itoje, so should remain in the boiler house. Lastly, we could possibly see a change on the wing, Elliot Daly did little wrong, but did have limited impact with ball in hand, and made one crucial kicking error. Gatland is a big fan of Jack Nowell, and his return to form after a poor opening to the tour could see him earn a start. Beyond this, I don't see much change to the match squad from test two.

One game more

It has been a long season for the Lions, they will all surely be carrying at least some small injury, and the thought of a four week holiday will be in the back of all their minds. The question is whether they have got one more week in them, one more match of guts and determination. The heart says yes, they'll give everything they have to record the greatest test series win of the professional era. The head says no, they are exhausted, they gave everything they had to level the series, and the All Blacks are hurting.

The Lions destroyed a burnt out Australia side four years
ago, will the All Blacks reap the same reward?

Four years ago we all saw the passion and the commitment that the Australians gave to clinch the second test and take it to the final game. A week later the Lions blew them away with an aggressive high tempo game, which the Wallabies couldn't keep up with. There is the distinct possibility of this happening again, but this time the Lions will be on the receiving end of the backlash. If any team in the world can respond to a loss with an all guns blazing, lethal return fixture it is the Kiwis. The Lions are going to have to be on full alert, and their back-row is going to have to have the game of their lives to keep the game at a controllable speed. 

The game is going to go one of two ways. Either we see a repeat of Wellington, the Lions defenders smashing into black shirts with reckless abandon, they'll also need to pull off a couple of tries like they did so beautifully in the second half. Or we will see the All Blacks batter into tired Lions, and with that gain-line superiority unleash their full repertoire of lethal attack. It will be brutal either way, I just hope it is not a blood bath. 

It all comes down to this, one more effort, one more face off. Who will come out the victor?