New Zealand: All Black or Not All That?

For the last five or more years it has been rugby scripture that the All Blacks are the best team in the world, the one which all others should look to emulate, only beatable by the most perfect of performances (and even then only when they are missing players). In the last six months, however, they have looked more vulnerable than ever. The Kiwi's love coming to the Northern Hemisphere looking to finish off the season unbeaten, but this year they didn't even get to start the undefeated run. Since their opening fixture against Samoa, they have lost against the Lions and Australia. Additionally, they could have lost to South Africa, France, Scotland, and the Lions again. In a nearly a dozen games they've only put together one 80 minute performance, against South Africa. The rest of the year they have largely relied on a complete blitzkrieg in the first half to build an unassailable lead, before releasing the throat after halftime. So what's going on, is it a malaise within their own ranks, or simply the rest of the world catching up?

Top of the World for eight years, yet the All Blacks look weaker than ever. What is going on this year?

Lack of Leadership

Let's start with what the coaches have been saying. Hansen and company have been defending their team's inability to close out games convincingly, arguing the case that the team is without a lot of test experience in key positions during this tour. Looking at the list it is hard to disagree with the statement: Ben Smith, Brodie Retallick, Owen Franks, Israel Dagg. These are players with years of experience on the test circuit, and understand what it takes to see a game - and a performance - through to the end.

Ben Smith is usually the Vice-Captain but is on
a sabbatical ahead of the 2019 World Cup.

Some of those players are being missed more than others, Owen Franks and the rest of the first choice front row are being covered well by the reserves. But Brodie Retallick and Ben Smith are the big ones. Leaders at the front and at the back, crucial to maintaining calm and confidence throughout the team. Brodie Retalick provides the ability to retain possession, win lineouts, steal lineouts, and generally make the oppositions life a nightmare. While at the back Smith is the calming presence whenever something seems to be going wrong. He makes so few mistakes, and always seems to make his moments of brilliance happen right when the momentum needs to be changed. Damian McKenzie is doing a bang-up job of filling in offensively, but he doesn't instill a reassuring presence at the back, the sort of knowledge to just do the right thing and get his team going forwards again.

Hansen has been saying that this tour will develop more leaders within the team in time for the World Cup, although it does not seem to be clicking just yet. Beauden Barrett has been thrust into a captaincy role, and the back three has little experience internationally. The leadership structure is likely to be much stronger next year, and for the world cup.

What's the gameplan?

Whether it has come about from missing key personnel (Retalick springs to mind), or just reaction to teams figuring out how to stop them but the free-flowing lethal attack of 2016 seems to have disappeared into the mist. Gone is the consistent scoring of four or more tries a match, gone are the scores in both half, and perhaps most notably, gone are the lightning fast line breaks by Barrett. Previously these breaks were found out wide with ease, but recently the All Blacks haven't been able to get outside of the 12 channel easily.

Magical in attack, but McKenzie doesn't offer
much help to Barrett.

Part of this is down to the hard outside arcing blitz developed so successfully by the Lions in June, which others have since adopted. The other part is down to a shift in player types. Retallick has been switched by Luke Romano who doesn't have the same level of decision making or passing ability, which instantly narrows the attack. Also with McKenzie at fullback, there isn't a playmaker wider out to take the pressure off Barrett, despite Hansen's insistence that the diminutive Chief is fly-half material. Ben Smith with his decision making and ability to keep the play alive allows Barrett to run rampant, MacKenzie is more maverick than maestro, similar to Barrett of old. That means that Barrett has to be the controlling influence, which tightens him up and restricts his solo attacking play.

Speaking of Barrett, there is something else that's gone from his game. What happened to the cross-field kicks that proved so lethal with the Hurricanes during the Super Rugby season? The team from Wellington was destroying teams with their kicking game. It's weird that they don't use it more, considering the hard outside blitz that teams are using, cross kicks seem like the perfect counter to overcome the system. Maybe we will see it in Cardiff in the final match of the season.

Barrett used to be feared for pin-point kick passing, however, it has been a rarity in the black shirt this year.

Rest of the World

To say that the All Blacks are architects of their own downfall discredits the improvement of a lot of teams. After the success of the southern hemisphere at the 2015 World Cup, a lot of the Northern Hemisphere teams took a long hard look at themselves and realised they were being left behind and had to change. Two years later and we've got an England team that is showcasing the traditional All Black sudden try technique to demoralise opposition, we've got a Scotland team playing wide rugby at lightning speeds, France throwing offloads galore, and Ireland executing slick backline moves with deft handling ability.

Hogg had a field day from fullback last weekend.

The rest of the world has worked hard to catch up to the skill, pace, and gameplay of the Kiwis and it's starting to show. New Zealand can no longer guarantee they are going to score twice as many tries as the opposition and look a lot more nervous in defense because of it. Just look at how Scotland quicker and finding the holes. Either way the air of invincibility around the All Blacks is disappearing quickly and teams can sense blood.
repeatedly found whole in the outside centre channel last weekend, and with players like Stuart Hogg sowed panic in the ranks of black. Australia too found a lot of fortune getting the likes of Folau on the ball out wide. It could be down to a lack of decent communication from the back, or maybe teams are just getting the ball out wide.

They are still winning!

There's still plenty of trophies in the cabinet.

Despite all of this, the missing players, the failure to beat the defence, and the improvement of everyone else, the All Blacks keep managing to win. Somehow they manage to get over the line when it matters. The loss to Australia was a dead rubber, so maybe the mental drive to win wasn't quite there. And against the Lions in Wellington, they played the majority of the game a man down. Meanwhile, against Australia in Auckland they found the score at the death, against France they held on long enough, against Scotland Barrett pulled off a match-saving tackle.

They might be vulnerable, they might not quite be clicking, but damn do they know how to win in the end. Only one other team seem to have the uncanny ability to win even if not at their best, at the moment, and that's England under Eddie Jones. Even then I think the All Blacks would just have the mental belief to beat them. It is a worrying fact that in the next two years this New Zealand team is only going to get stronger, and yet even when they are weak they're still comfortably top of the world. Only one team stands in their way, one game left to prove they can win no matter what is stacked against them. And despite my bias, I can't see Wales putting together a performance to beat them on Saturday. We will wait and see.

This year is potentially Wales' best chance to beat the All Blacks since 1953, can they?