Offside Opinions: Wales can beat New Zealand

As it stands New Zealand and Wales are the top two teams in the world, and for two weeks running New Zealand have had to defend their #1 ranking, a loss against either Argentina or South Africa would have seen them drop below the Welsh. This poses an interesting question, could Warren Gatland and the men in red, Hansen and the All Blacks, were they to meet next weekend?

Jantjies' last-minute try put the world on notice, that the All Blacks really do appear vulnerable.

For the sake of this debate I will only be considering the teams most recent performances, rather than how I expect them to be playing come the World Cup, should they meet. New Zealand are the obvious favourites in this hypothetical playoff, Wales haven't beaten New Zealand in over 50 years and arguably have the more talent. That being said I am convinced there are elements which - as it stands - would favour the Welsh.

The Welsh Attacking System

Anscombe has become excellent
at organising the Welsh attack.

The Welsh attack has long been condemned for its lack of invention, flair, and - most importantly - tries. "Warrenball" often used as a derisive term for the offence built by Gatland and Howley. While the statistics agree, Wales do not score a huge amount of tries, the nature of their attack is actually quite ingenious. Instead of weaving complex waves of attacking patterns like Scotland or Australia, Wales prefer to play simple, efficient, rugby allowing them to dominate possession and tire their opponent out.

They are patient, working the fringes of the breakdown until the opponent defence is brought in narrower and narrower to defend the relentless carries by the likes of Moriarty, Owens, and Parkes. Only when this has been completed do they use width, often with a crossfield kick to quickly exploit the space they've made and bring their wingers physical size to the fore.

Against the All Blacks, this game plan would all but kill off the danger of the Kiwi's counter-attack. Additionally, the Kiwi's are committing a lot of breakdown penalties in recent matches, and this non-stop ruck game could pull a number of kickable points out of the referee to really rack the scoreboard up, akin to what Wales managed against Ireland in March.

Jonathan Davies

On the other side of the ball is the Shaun Edwards designed defence. Traditionally the All Blacks have been the deadliest attack on the planet, lethally finishing any small opportunity presented to them. This has become less apparent in recent games, with uncharacteristic mistakes littering the Kiwi game. In the past the All Blacks would be patient - like Wales are now - once they got into an opponents 22, until the chink in the defence was found. Not so anymore, and with Wales' outstanding try-line defence, New Zealand would likely continue to struggle.

The true key though in halting New Zealand, however, is the high-velocity blitz defences that are the norm these days. Which utilise a hard rush in the 13-channel to cut off the width, and put pressure on the secondary playmaker, who is often operating behind a forward pod. Step up Jonathan Davies, he's been doing this for years, and is the best defensive reader in the professional game at this point. Should Wales and New Zealand meet in the World Cup, the success or failure of Wales' game will hinge on Davies' ability to cut off the wide channels and force the Kiwi's back inside. Lukhanyo Am did it expertly last weekend in Wellington, I see no reason Davies couldn't do the same.

Davies is the lynchpin to Edwards defence, a system which New Zealand
have been struggling to find a solution to for the last 18 months.

Aerial Parity

The final piece of the puzzle for Wales' potential - and long-awaited - success against the Kiwi's is their ability to take away one of New Zealand's favourite weapons. With the likes of Barrett, Ben Smith, Mo'unga, and Ryan Crotty being skilled exponents of attacking kicks, many teams can struggle to combat the bombardment by the boot. Wales meanwhile have a back three who showed during the Six Nations that they are simply extraordinary at diffusing bombs, covering kicks in behind, and reading kick passes.

Williams is king of the skies at the moment

Liam Williams turned it into an art form against England, to such an extent it was like he had a magnet underneath his shirt. Even against the self-proclaimed kick champions Ireland, the likes of Adams, Anscombe, and Biggar were everywhere, denying the Irish any reward. Granted the New Zealand kicking style is slightly more subtle than that employed by the Northern Hemisphere teams, I have no doubt that the Welsh players would cope with it perfectly well, and frustrate the All Blacks.

And we haven't even mentioned one of the greatest defensive fullbacks in modern history, Leigh Halfpenny.

Conclusion

I am not saying it is a guarantee, and a lot of this is provoked by the recent questionable performances by New Zealand to start the Rugby Championship, but if South Africa are capable of getting a draw, in Wellington, there is no reason Wales couldn't accomplish the same. Wales are on a roll, are supremely confident in their systems, and seem well built to deal with the Kiwi game. 

If all goes to plan, Wales and New Zealand could be meeting in the World Cup final come November, and I for one see no reason Gatland couldn't engineer Wales' greatest win in a century.