Offside Opinion: All Blacks won't make the Semi's

Time for another knee-jerk reaction, I guess, following on from the last Offside Opinion, where I stated Wales would be capable of beating the All Blacks (that aged well didn't it...), now I propose that the events in Cardiff 2007 will repeat themselves and the Kiwi's won't make it past the Quarter Finals of the World Cup.

The All Black's air of invulnerability is well and truly gone by now, it's probably the worst build-up to a World
Cup for New Zealand ever.

Let's begin with the fact that, after finishing third in the Rugby Championship, the men from New Zealand aren't playing particularly well. For a team famed for their ability to score tries and keep the scoreboard ticking over, they have certainly struggled. While seven tries from three games is something some teams would accept, that output is disappointing for a Kiwi side who expect three or four a match. And when you consider four of those seven came in the rampant loss to Australia, it takes even more gloss off.

Barrett's red card helped, but Australia were already
on top in the match.

New Zealand's struggles are well written about across the media, and not for conversation here. Instead let's break down their World Cup schedule, as that is where the threat of quarter-final elimination really lies.

The men in black open their defence of the Webb Ellis trophy with the Pool B decider. New Zealand vs South Africa promises to be one hell of a test match to kick start the World Cup, with both teams knowing to win all but guarantees them an easy route to the semis. The trouble starts when you consider the record between the two nations in the last 12 months. Three games, one win apiece, another draw, and an aggregate score of 82-82. There is not a tighter rivalry in international rugby right now. Despite all that parity I can't help but feel that South Africa have the edge going to Japan. How so?

The 16-16 draw was hosted in Wellington, so advantage Springboks there. The South African's employ a Northern Hemisphere style blitz defence, which the Kiwi's haven't been able to overcome effectively still, points to South Africa again. And perhaps most importantly, the South African's are on a roll, confident, and feeling good. Momentum is everything in a World Cup, and if the Springboks can maintain their form - especially that shown against Argentina - through to September then I fully expect them to take the victory in Yokohama.

South Africa lifted the Rugby Championship, and will look to end the hoodoo hanging over the trophy, by
winning the World Cup in Japan.

Taking that result, this will leave New Zealand in second place in the pool, at the end of the group stages. Which lines them up for a quarter-final meeting with their old favourites, the Men in Green, Ireland. A team, which after a century of hurt, have beaten the All Blacks twice in the last couple of years, and no longer fear the black jersey.

Ireland may have never won a World Cup quarter-final, but then again New Zealand have never come second in the groups either. So if one of them can happen, fate degrees that we continue to live in a world where the inconceivable is possible. Ireland have probably the easiest pool at the World Cup, so should be feeling quite fresh come the knock out stages.

As for the game itself, the Irish are blessed with the finest tactical mind in coaching, not to mention the best executors of a game plan at halfback too. They all will have been studying New Zealand's struggles with a keen eye, taking the bits and pieces of successful game strategies from the likes of South Africa and Australia to build a tailor-made system to break down the All Blacks.

Schmidt is going to be enjoying all this film made
by Australia and South Africa.

Even Ireland's natural game-style is well suited to overcoming the Kiwi's. Schmidt's standard blueprint is two-fold. If they are in their own half they will look to kick out, either a contestable kick on halfway, to win the ball back, or one to pin the opponent back in their 22. On the flip side, once they are in the attacking half, Ireland will look to hold on to the ball for as long as they can, recycling the ball phase-after-phase until a penalty is won, or a scoring opportunity presents itself. New Zealand struggled against these concepts on separate occasions. South Africa executed the territory game perfectly in Wellington, forcing the Kiwi's to always attack from deep. While the Australian's showcased just how ineffective the All Black attack game is, when it doesn't have the ball, dominating the possession stats on levels rarely seen on the international stage.

Throw all of that together, and there is a strong chance that the Irish take the day, and reach their first ever semi-final in the most impressive of circumstances. Leaving Steve Hansen with the taste of defeat on his tongue as he retires from the international game. An unfair legacy for one of the best coaches the world has ever seen, but such is the nature of professional rugby. That fateful day in 2007 at the Millenium Stadium was New Zealand's blackest moment, but 2019, and Yokohama, could become an even darker one.