Monday, 21 March 2016

It's all over, 6 Nations Review


It's all over for another year, the greatest annual tournament in world rugby has come to a close. England are Grand Slam champions, with no qualms made by any nations, they were the best team each and every week. Italy once again were awarded the Wooden Spoon amidst huge question marks over their continued inclusion in the tournament. France were frustrating, Scotland are starting to threaten, Wales fluctuated between improvement and poor performances, and Ireland had to figure out how to win while missing half their team.

It wasn't a brilliant tournament on the whole, not many "great tries" being scored, most games forgone conclusions with 60 minutes gone denying fans the real nail-biting finishes that they hate to love. A lot of sides seemed to be a pale shadows of themselves, possibly due to the taxing nature of the World Cup that had occurred 5 months earlier. Sometimes teams seemed to try to play the expansive style that dominated at the World Cup and it struggled to take root. I expect by the next World Cup most of the teams in the tournament will have a balanced mix between the typical Northern Hemisphere style and the expansive "new-age" Southern Hemisphere one, but it will take a while to appear. The big test is to try this new style in the summer tours and the November friendlies when the other team are the actual exponents of the style they are trying to adopt.

Anyway how did each team do overall, and where can they look to build for next years championship?

1st - England

Eddie Jones has given England their toughness back.
Start with the obvious, they won the Grand Slam. Can't say much more than that in terms of just how good they've been this year. It hasn't been a glamorous Grand Slam, efficient is the word I would use, but it hasn't been without it's flashes of exciting play. Under new coach Eddie Jones England have rediscovered the grizzly hard-nosed attitude which made them both hated and feared across the globe. With the likes of Kruis, Haskell and Owen Farrell allowed to show their combative side they have
thrived.

It's been a pretty simple game plan from England overall, combining an efficient set piece (yielding 91% success across both scrums and lineouts), with aggressive breakdown strength, and then add two play makers in the back-line to capitalise on any over laps that develop. In defence it was a case of blitzing as hard and as fast as possible and trying to force the opposition into mistakes. It wasn't a perfect system, teams were capable of unpicking the defensive system with quick decision making and a eagerness to spread the ball wide quickly. Ireland has some good success with this system and France almost blew the Grand Slam apart with a risky offloading game. I'm sure they will be sternly tested in the summer against Australia, who with their super effective double open-side system could maybe pose some problems to England at the breakdown. Also the willingness of the Australian backs to spread it into the wide channels where the likes of Folau and others can thrive is something that Gustard will have to take into consideration.

Haskell with the rest of the pack have been crucial.
In attack England have relied heavily on Billy Vunipola, and with good reason, in the first half of the tournament he was breaking tackles at will, making ground for fun and giving England the front foot ball they needed. Against Wales and France he was less obvious, but that's because teams started taking him seriously and double or even triple tackling him. This just meant there was more room out there for the likes of Itoje, Haskell to make the yards, but what it really did was free up the scrum half. Youngs and Care had a free ride on the back of the forwards, able to snipe and probe around the fringes which kept the opposition on the back foot, and in the case of Care gifted him a simple run in try against France. Eddie Jones may not know which of the two are his first choice yet, but it can't be a bad thing both of them performing so well.

England possess plenty of talent, no world class players yet, but three or four are threatening to be and very soon. Itoje has started two tests and is now practically undroppable alongside Kruis in the second row. Billy Vunipola was the player of the tournament and will have a huge battle with his cousin Faletau for the Lion's shirt next summer. Anthony Watson is the sort of lethal finisher any team needs and is almost unbeatable in the air. And Owen Farrell's goal kicking has been second to none all tournament and is worthy of his vice-captain role within the team. 

Henry Slade could be the long term "second playmaker".
It's hard to see where England need to improve really as they were simply better than everyone this year. As mentioned their defence can be unpicked with regularity if the attacking team is brave enough. The only other area is their finishing in the final third, England struggled to get over the line through multiple phases, slightly lacking that killer instinct when they had the opposition on the
ropes. They still scored some great tries, but more often than not they came from a little deeper and a line-break around the halfway line. Would maybe having a bit of star quality like Tuilagi allow them to punish teams more, or having Henry Slade back allow a more confident 10-12 axis to exist, especially with George Ford still struggling to find the form that made him great last season.

2nd - Wales

Well, for a Wales team that has won Grand Slams after the last two World Cups, and were arguably the best team from the 6 Nations in the World Cup, they were pretty lacklustre all tournament. Starting against Ireland they were done 13-0 before they knew what was happening, but proved their quality in the end fight back. Against Scotland the produced a roller-coaster performance that only won by reverting to their power game for 20 minutes. France half way through was a simple walk over, and Wales didn't get out of third gear. The England game was the worst performance in years except at the death but the game was gone, and Italy weren't even interested in the game.

Roberts still crucial to Wales.
The power game is once again hotly debated, with many people say it's time it was thrown away after it proved unsuccessful again. But considering it got Wales out of a sticky situation against Scotland, it has to stay around. What needs to be done is Wales - and Gatland - need to build on top of it. Against Italy we finally saw Wales using Jamie Roberts as a decoy runner, drawing in two or three defenders which created large holes wider out, which allowed the likes of George North and Jonathan Davies to run rampant. They even used Roberts as a distributor, giving him the ball on the gain-line and asking him to slip it back to a looping player creating even more havoc. It doesn't seem that hard a additional system to add to the current game style, so it seems bonkers it took so long to use it.

North was back to his best this year, just in time too.
The positives this tournament haven't been many but they have appeared. First and foremost is the emergence of Rob Evans at loose head, for years Wales have been worried about how to replace the veteran Gethin Jenkins, and here they've found the man before Jenkins has even retired. Willing to ball carry in the wide spaces, equipped with a deft pair of hands, but most importantly has proven a capable scrummager at this level. Another player who took his opportunity was Ross Moriarty against Italy, his powerful ball carrying similar to Vunipola will be a useful addition to the Welsh squad. The biggest positive was George North getting back to his best, whenever he got the ball he made yards, in most cases that was a large number. Finally giving a bit more space to use the ball, being asked to run and attack in the wider channels rather than at players into the 10-12 channel. He'll be crucial to any hopes Wales have of winning in New Zealand.

Despite coming second Wales have plenty to work on, the style which so expertly took apart Italy - and England eventually - looks incredibly dangerous and needs time to bed in, but it wasn't perfect. Wales left a couple of tries out on the field, with poor communication from out wide leaving 4-on-1's begging. Begs the question how that message doesn't get passed into Webb & Biggar at half back, and maybe the introduction of Anscombe at fullback with his play making ability could allow Wales to capitalise on those chances. The Anscombe debate also comes on the back of the void at winger, three players were tried in that position and none of them did enough to take claim of the shirt. In fact Liam Williams looked the best in that position after Anscombe had come on at fullback. Wales will be hoping to half Leigh Halfpenny back soon, because the back three debate is a problem.

3rd - Ireland

Safe to say it was a frustrating tournament for Ireland, started with early promise building a comfortable lead against Wales, however three weeks later their title defence was over. After Wales took control of the game, and a brutal French team had battered their way to a dull win in Paris, England completed the job with an accomplished display. At Twickenham Ireland did show some promise, with two tries being unfortunate not to be scored by TMO decision and a heroic cover tackle by Jack Nowell, they looked like a team finding their feet again. Then came the huge blow out against Italy which gave them the confidence to go out and beat Scotland on the final weekend.

CJ Stander has given Ireland yet another ball carrier.
Ireland seemed a shadow of themselves early on in the tournament really lacking the bite and front line ferocity that made a nightmare to play against, without Paul O'Connoll they looked a little lost, especially with no Iain Henderson - out with injury. No O'Mahony either meant they lacked the ability to dominate the breakdown battle. However slowly they begun to cope and replace these big players. Sean O'Brien's departure was covered with the sensational form of CJ Stander who was seemingly mentioned by commentators every 30 seconds. Jamie Heaslip eventually stood up to the mark in the final two rounds, getting involved in the ball carrying void left by O'Brien too. Zebo at fullback has given Ireland a bit of exciting flair in the backline, someone who is willing to try the running game instead of the kicking game they have relied upon for so long.

After those early disappointments Ireland looked much more like themselves, with forwards giving Connor Murray a fast platform on which to run the play and win the territory game. Johnny Sexton was back to his world class best, pushing Ireland around the park with his point perfect kicking game, as well as offering the running game which is capable of tearing teams apart - and did so again and again against England. Against Scotland he simply oozed class, making correct decision after correct decision and creating tries at will, if he needed to work on one element of his game it would be his kicking from the tee which took a massive downturn during the last two weekends.

Zebo adds a bit of flair to Ireland.
Plenty of positives for Ireland, especially in the creation of strength in depth with Van der Flier and McCloskey getting their debuts and playing well in the green shirt, and the continued development of Jack McGrath as a top class loosehead prop. They also begun to show a bit more of a ball in hand attacking threat in general play, Sexton & Henshaw combining very well with regularity which will only improve with the young centre moving to Leinster next season.

Ireland do need to improve, but again it's difficult to see where, the end of the tournament was very good from them with forwards winning the breakdown and Sexton commanding the game with his mate Murray inside him. With the returning players from injury they are going to be a much stronger force come this time next year, perhaps if one thing was going to be their focus point for
improvement it would be developing this attacking with ball in hand game. The start is there, and with Zebo in the backline it could take off, but it does seem to struggle with the simple but consistent Payne at outside centre, it might be worth risking some youngsters sooner rather than later who would be more inclined to look to get the ball out of contact.

4th - Scotland

Another nearly year for Scotland, but they're better than the previous ones. They seemed a little stunned by the atmosphere of the Calcutta Cup on the opening weekend, and everyone feared that after an impressive World Cup Scotland would fall apart. A week later they posed Wales plenty of problems, and had Stuart Hogg not gone off injured they might have stolen the win. Then came the crunch match, where they managed a good win in Italy showcasing a complete performance with some excellent tries and good match control from captain Laidlaw. They followed it up with a comprehensive win against France where they never looked out of their depth. Sadly they then had to go to Dublin against a rejuvenated Ireland team where a couple of mistakes and a majestic display from Sexton kept Scotland at arms reach all game.

Scotland's game plan is a simple one, retain the ball. It's very rare you see a team happy to simply hold on to the ball through dozens of phases and wait patiently for their opportunity. Most sides prefer to dominate the territory game instead, and hope the opposition will make a mistake upon which they can capitalise. Scotland learnt the hard way that if they try that teams have a habit of using the ball better and scoring the tries which put Scotland out of the game. So instead they prove that having the ball is key to victory. Continued hard work by the forwards creates ruck after ruck, phase after phase, bringing in opposition players until the spaces appear out wide for someone like Stuart Hogg or Duncan Taylor to make a line break. If the space doesn't turn up they'll wait for a penalty to be awarded for the peerless Laidlaw to knock over.
The Gray brothers are the key to Scotland's phase play style, both willing to do the tough hard carries.

This isn't necessarily a new tactic for Scotland but now it is starting to work. Before Scotland would eventually give up possession or be rash into contact and give away a penalty, now their recycling is consistent, Laidlaw bosses expertly and they have the talent out-wide to execute the chances when the present themselves. That talent is epitomized by Stuart Hogg, he has been simply outstanding. His agile footwork combined with his lethal pace is an eternal problem for defences, he always manages to get the ball through the tackle and create chances for team mates. The try he scored against Ireland was simply fantastic, having the confidence to take on the defender, beat him on the outside and then outpace three Irish defenders over 50m's to score. His offloading ability has created at least three tries in this championship alone, and then add his huge boot both from hand and from the tee there is very little he can't do. Without a doubt he is currently the best fullback in the British Isle's and is everyone's pick for the Lion's 15 shirt right now.
Hogg has been simply superb all tournament.

The forwards have added grit to Scotland to allow Hogg and others to shine. The Gray brothers have become an amazing partnership with powerful carries in the tight exchanges as well as a tremendous amount of tackling. The pair of Strauss and Wilson have a great battle going for the No. 8 shirt which can only breed improvement. WP Nel has become an excellent corner stone for the scrum giving Scotland a platform to attack from. The introduction of Hardie from New Zealand, has given Scotland aggression in defence, he is capable of winning turnovers, and is always found making a dozen or more tackles each game. He also provides good link play in attack which has improved Scotland's contingency in attack.

Scotland are improving, and they will continue to improve, I think foremost on their list of things to achieve is find their first choice team. Most teams know their preferred XV, but Scotland through a cobination of fluctuating form and injuries haven't quite settled on theirs yet. The centre partnership of Dunbar and Taylor has started to look very good but there is also Mark Bennett to consider. Along with finding their best team, they also need to begin to build strength in depth, WP Nel is fantastic but Scotland lack a good quality replacement for him which is required in the modern game. Also at half back with Laidlaw becoming so important as captain and kicker, the understudies aren't given any chance to develop in the international game which could be a problem should the worst happen.

5th - France

Different coach, different style, same result. I'm starting to feel sorry for France if I'm honest. They languished under PSA for four years playing a dull boring game that made the fans dislike the players, and then they finally got a coach lauded for his playing style at Toulouse for years. They start seeing a French team wanting to play with the ball, looking to spread it around and attack with width. However it hasn't quite come off, this is likely because of a massive swing in play styles from their club game to the one being asked of them for France, and because of it they have struggled to win games. The end product hasn't been there, they have made multiple line breaks, but not been able to convert them into tries as shown by only 82 points scored in the championship.

Guirado strives for excellence in each game.
France showed early promise, plenty of attacking intent against Italy carried them through in the end even if their defence was porous. And then ground out a win against Ireland in terrible conditions, but then two games away in Cardiff and Edinburgh produced flat performances where they were simply outclassed by better opponents. They were arguably the better side overall against England in the
final weekend, but lacked the killer instinct to score tries despite picking apart the English defence on numerous occasions. In reality that summed up France, plenty of ambition but lacked the final touch. Their forwards showed touches of the old French brutality, bashing around opposition players and putting together some dangerous driving mauls, but it never stuck consistently. The forwards seeming to lack the will to carry hard into contact instead hoping to flick the ball away from the tackle in a desperate attempt to offload even if it wasn't on. The one French forward who was a consistent pillar of excellence was captain Guirado, who at times looked like he was trying to drag the entire of France forward by his own legs. France have got a great captain they just need to build a team around him now.

They have struggled with injuries, they lost talismanic No. 8 Louis Picamoles early in the first game. Young star Jonathan Danty who showed some much promise in the early games was crocked part way through the campaign and they never quite filled the void in the centre that he left, although the return of Fofana (although they played him on wing for the majority) did remind people of his talent there. And then there was the farcical injury list at wing which lead to the nationality problems. 

Camara could be a big star in the future, why not blood him?
France have started to play an exciting game which if it starts to stick could prove incredibly difficult to stop. The problem is that players are being told to offload on principle, which has lead to a glut of handling errors and coughing up possession allowing the other team to dominate possession. It's great that they are playing like this but they need to temper the risk with a bit of safe play just to allow them control in the game, against England they showed their ability to control a game considering all of their points came from penalties in the English half. They also need to learn how to finish a chance, they are making plenty of opportunities but for some reason lack the ability to get the ball over the line. Lastly I'd like to see them add a bit of athleticism to their back row, the likes of Yacouba Camara have shown excellent form in Europe and should be given chance, it worked for England and Itoje, Camara could be France's reply.

6th - Italy

What happened to the Italy side that could beat France, Scotland, Ireland and Wales? They started off well, the better side in Paris on the opening weekend, they should have won it but they panicked at the death. They pushed England hard for 45 minutes, before shooting themselves in the foot and giving England the dam break they needed. Then losing in Rome to Scotland meant the end of their challenge in the tournament as they ended with two record defeats away to Ireland and Wales. Italy didn't even look like they cared about the Wales game, as they went in at the break 27-0 down.

No Italian has performed as well as Campagnaro.
We'll start with the positives, there are some amidst the rubble. Firstly and most prominently is Michele Campagnaro who was Italy's shining light in every game he played in. Incredibly difficult to bring to the ground he always made ground, simply exceptional at breaking the gain line with speed and strength. But he also has the ability to get Italy back on the front foot when they've lost momentum. In defence he makes defending the hardest channel on the pitch look relatively easy as he hits with pure aggression and drives players back into the turf with force. He will be a star for years to come, I just hope he can spark an Italian Renaissance and they can start to compete once again. Other gems have been unearthed, little fullback Odiete has proven a tricky customer with dancing feet and great acceleration, he needs to be given a professional contract so he can continue to develop. Leonardo Sarto continued his good attacking prowess too, while Carlo Canna could give Italy the answer to the fly-half debate they have had for over a decade, he looked calm and assured against France and Italy noticed his injury with grave concern at the end of the tournament. He looked to form a great partnership with Edurado Gorri and they - when fit - could supply Italy with a long term successful half back partnership which every side needs. 

O'Shea is favourite to take the Italy job.
However we can't avoid the problems, as the injuries mounted up the quality dropped and scorelines increased. Italy simply couldn't deal with the raft of injuries that piled on their doorstep, losing crucial players to the point when they turned up to Cardiff they were missing 15 players from their initial squad. Any team would struggle with that injury list, but a team with Italy's tiny player pool it was a disaster. Their replacement fly-halves lacked the confidence and control of the game which cost them. Their defence was too weak, giving up easy yards and allowing teams to dictate the tempo. The forwards were unable to slow down opposition ball with any regularity which caused even more problems for their defence. With Brunel leaving the post now, whoever is coming in to fill the void has a large rebuilding job to do, but he has plenty of raw ingredients. They'll try to edge one more season at least out of the ever present great Parisse to set up the foundations of their play, but they will have to prepare for his eventual retirement. It's a long road but Italy could come back, and this talk of relegating them from the 6 Nations for Georgia is mad, if you want Georgia at this level just expand the tournament - we have two empty weekends each season anyway.

Tackle Pad Team of the Tournament

15 - Stuart Hogg (SCO)
14 - Anthony Watson (ENG)
13 - Michele Campagnaro (ITA)
12 - Owen Farrell (ENG)
11 - George North (WAL)
10 - Jonny Sexton (IRE)
9 - Connor Murray (IRE)
1 - Rob Evans (WAL)
2 - Guilhem Guirado (FRA)
3 - WP Nel (SCO)
4 - Maro Itoje (ENG)
5 - George Kruis (ENG)
6 - CJ Stander (IRE)
7 - John Hardie (SCO)
8 - Billy Vunipola (ENG) 

Farrell has played expertly.
This team largely picks itself. Hogg has been superb, Mike Brown was the closest challenger but not as good as he has been. Watson and North have scored important tries for their teams, have provided plenty of attacking intent and both solid under the high ball. Campagnaro would probably get into any other team in the tournament, pushed hard by Scotland's Duncan Taylor. Owen Farrell provided a confident guiding hand in the England back-line, with peerless goal kicking and staunch defence to boot too, Wales' Jamie Roberts was once again great but still had off days. Sexton looked a shadow of himself early on, but rediscovered the form that helped the Lions take apart Australia three years ago, picked alongside his predatory team mate Murray at scrum half, either of Youngs or Care could have got in if they'd been able to claim the shirt.

Hardie has outclassed
everyone else.
In the pack, Rob Evans has been a great find by Gatland and will develop for the next few years into a top class prop, on the other side WP Nel has been one of gems which have truned Scotland into a team which can win games. Guirado as stated was the constant shining light for France all tournament and just shaved out Grand Slam winning captain Dylan Hartley who was a consummate professional. In the engine room the two Englishmen were unmatched by anybody in the tournament, Maro Itoje is developing a fearsome reputation for stealing lineouts, and Kruis offers a brilliant line out captain and a safe pair of hands (claimed 50% of all England's lineouts himself). At blindside CJ Stander was mentioned again and again by commentators for good reason, he always had the ball in his hands, willing to do the hard brutal carries that but his team on the front foot. At openside Hardie could yet be the choice to be the Lion's No. 7 in New Zealand, totally committed to the cause, puts his body on the line again and again, also high in the tackle charts and a more than capable jackler.

Lastly is the man of the tournament without a doubt Billy Vunipola, for three rounds his meters gained and defenders beaten stats were simply ridiculous for a forward, he was everything good about England in attack. In the later rounds he was kept quiet by defences, but his presence meant that other players had more space, a crucial lesson he has learnt, that he can't do everything himself. Simply superb, and I can't separate him and Faletau for the Lions shirt right now.

Thursday, 17 March 2016

Wales vs Italy Preview


As harsh as this will sound to Italy, this is the perfect game for Wales after the events of Twickenham. The Welsh players need to put in an outstanding performance to bring the public back onside, as well as remember just how good they are. Italy are the weakest side in the 6 Nations, and we have seen the likes of England and Ireland cut them to shreds already this tournament. They have provided moments of excitement; almost beating France; and scoring some good tries all championship but they remain continually inconsistent. Wales across the board are a better team that Italy, and are at home, they should be capable of scoring plenty of tries this game, and they should try to do that too.

Before we look at Wales let's take a quick look at Italy. In the early part of this years tournament they looked a real threat with Gori, Canna and Campagnaro all combining wonderful to play some exciting expansive rugby which should have won them the game in Paris. Against England they frustrated the men in white for 40 minutes, and only feel apart after a rash decision in the back field leading to an intercept. Two games later another panicked decision by the Italian back three gave Ireland the first score which opened the flood gates to a hiding to forget. Unfortunately injuries have really taken their toll on the Azzuri. With a total of fifteen first choice players injured heading to
With Campagnaro injured, Italy are without their biggest
attacking threat.
Cardiff, four of those took part in the game against Ireland a week ago. They are really struggling to put out a decent side week in week out and that costs them in the long run. It's a consequence of the attritional nature of  the 6 Nations that injuries happen the top teams can deal with them, the Italians can't.

The Italian's cannot be taken lightly, but if you manage to get an early score against them, and build a double score lead quickly they start taking risks and making mistakes upon which any good team can capitalise and score even more. They will have a solid set piece, and a dangerous driving maul, but without the likes of Campagnaro their wide attack won't be particularly threatening. Wales will want to prove themselves in defence after the woeful performance at Twickenham, and will aim to shut out the Italians outright, deny them any opportunities and deny the Azzuri as many points as possible.

Edwards would not have liked
the defence shown last week.
Defence will be a paramount thing that a lot of the Welsh players will want to rectify after the England performance. We're so used to players like Roberts, Biggar and Davies in the midfield making their tackles with 100% completion, instead they were falling off tackles. This was largely due to the fact they weren't getting up off the line and unable to activate a blitz which has been the foundations of their defensive success. That ability to blitz up has so often stemmed from their ability to slow down the opponents ball at the breakdown and allow players like Davies and Roberts to read the play and shut it down. Italy have played with real tempo at points this year, and it could be a test for Wales to slow them down, but it is a chance to show they can pull of their defensive systems yet again.


It isn't just a game for Wales to fix what went wrong in England, it is also a chance to express exactly what went right, and this time do it for a whole game. The attacking threat shown in the last 15 minutes against England was nothing short of exceptional, and it should be the blueprint for the Wales attack - not just against Italy but full stop. The weird thing is, in reality, it's not all that different from their usual game plan. The standard Wales attack is focused on the likes of Roberts and North crashing hard at the 10-12 channel, and then forward carries off 9 sucking in defenders until there is a chance of an overlap for the likes of Jonathan Davies and Liam Williams to exploit. It's a simple game plan and can work as shown over the last few years. Against England Wales did something different, they kept the hard running of Roberts at the 10-12 channel, but supplemented it with hard, straight focused running in the wider channels, all combined with an willingness to pass the ball.

Roberts is more than capable to linking up with players,
Jamie Roberts is often maligned by Welsh supporters about his ability to pass the ball, it is a total misnomer. He has the ability to pass and set up chances, but he isn't asked to. If Wales use him as a decoy runner, or even use him to take the ball before slipping it to another player looping around him, it will suck in two - maybe three - players and create large gaps in the wider channels which players like North, Davies and Liam Williams are more then capable of turning into tries. But it doesn't even have to be that complicated, Wales took England apart by spreading it wide quickly and with purpose, which got the likes of Davies and North  running with intent, ball in hand, in space. Space is key in rugby, it gives players time to think, time to open up the defence and makes them much much harder to stop. Wales in recent months haven't had the confidence to try using the wider channels, whether it is a lack of faith in their handling abilities to get those players in space quickly, or a statement from the coaching staff to not over play. But it's something that Wales need to start doing.

Neither of those reasons are really valid. If you look at this Welsh back-line individually there are stark similarities to the New Zealand team which romped to a World Cup only 6 months ago. Compare: North to Savea; Liam Williams to Ben Smith; Jonathan Davies to Conrad Smith, Rhys Webb to Aaron Smith; Roberts to Nonu. It's not an exact comparison, but these Wales players are more than capable to working on the skills that the All Blacks had on top. Roberts adding a little extra passing work; North looking for work in the centre field getting his hands on the ball. But is it that far of a stretch to see this Wales team playing in a similar way to the excellent Kiwi's? Arguably Dan Biggar doesn't quite have the ability Dan Carter has to take the ball to the line and make a break, but he adds his own weapon to the Welsh arsenal with his ability in the air, although Rhys Preistland can offer that desire to stand flatter should it be required.
The All Black's are the best team on the planet, but Wales posses similar qualities in their back-line, something to consider?

Tipuric is good enough to get in any side, handling skills
better than most backs.
Of course the Kiwi style doesn't just stem from the make-up of their back-line, but also the ability and desire of forwards to get involved. It's having forwards out in the wide channels, to act as support should someone take the ball into contact, but also forwards who are capable of taking the ball and passing it without killing any opportunities that present themselves. It is something that some Welsh forwards have struggled with through the tournament, Scott Baldwin has spilled multiple passes when Wales have had an overlap out wide, but he isn't the only one. The Welsh forwards need to work on their handling ability so they don't ruin any chances that have been crafted. There are however some shining lights in the Welsh pack that can - and do - know how to use a ball, how to make a gap, and how to set up a score. Lining up against Italy are the likes of Rob Evans who is enjoying doing plenty of ball carrying; Talupe Faletau who is perhaps the only person who is on par with All Black Kieran Read with his all court game; Luke Charteris who's provides excellent dyanism from lock; and the simply majestic Justin Tipuric who would most likely be playing for the All Blacks right now if he'd been born in New Zealand. Wales possess the forwards who are comfortable on the ball, and comfortable in the wide channels to support the style of play the back-line could be trying, but they need to be given the license to do that, and trust in the likes of Lydiate, Bradley Davies and Scott Baldwin to pick up the tight ball carrying duties.

Amos to play big role?
It is interesting to hear Warren Gatland say that he has told the two wingers they have a license to roam this weekend. It's not something we've seen much from Welsh wingers, especially since the legendary Shane Williams retired. Gatland has told Amos and North to go looking for the ball, get involved and have an impact on the game rather than waiting on their wings for something to happen. It could prove to be exciting, for a start it is something that numerous pundits, coaches, and myself have been saying North should be doing anyway, he has the size, power and desire to score to have a direct impact whenever he gets the ball. Amos' "free-roaming" will likely take a different route, he is a far more intelligent player, in a similar mold to Liam Williams where he can act as a play-maker, using his kicking ability to attack in a different fashion, plus he isn't a bad finisher either scoring some wonderful tries for the Dragons. He also possesses some incredible strength for someone so slight, at one point being recorded as having the same squatting stats as the giant George North. The Welsh wingers could have a large impact on the scoreline come Saturday.

It's all very well saying Wales should go into the game looking to play an expansive, fast, powerful game, but it's never that easy. The Italians like to cause problems at ruck time and really kill momentum, it's their best chance of staying in a game and making it a tight arm wrestle where maybe they can steal a victory. The Welsh forwards are going to have to be at their best to supply quick ruck ball for Rhys Webb. They're are likely to be much more aggressive in attack with Webb much more vocal than Gareth Davies, the forwards will be in position to receive the pass before the breakdown is won, allowing them to drive at an unorganised defence and continue the advance forward. The set piece will be crucial, Scotland showed what a dominant scrum can do against the Italians, and the Scarlet duo of Evans & Lee will aim to get on top early and give Webb & Biggar quick clean ball. The lineout struggled against the majestic Itoje last weekend, Wales are unlikely to find someone
The scrum could be key to Wales asserting dominance.
quite so good lining up against them this weekend, but lineout completion is another facet that has to be perfect and allow Wales to control them game and capitalise on any chance in the attacking third.

This is a game which Wales have to win, win and they come second, win and they regain some pride. More importantly they need to win well and show just how good a side they are, get some confidence back in the camp and in the country before they head to New Zealand in the summer. It's a chance to start putting together the style that's going to take them to Japan in four years time.

Key Players:

Dan Biggar: He needs to have a good game, he has struggled to replicate the form that made him a hero in the World Cup, against England he couldn't even start to run the game, but he tried everything. His direct action was what gave Wales hope against the English, and that commitment to the shirt needs to return this weekend. With his life-long friend Rhys Webb back at scrum half, he should feel more comfortable as to what is happening inside him, allowing him to dictate what happens with the backs. Priestland is likely to get an early run out in the second half, Biggar needs to have laid down the foundations, get the scoreboard set up early, to allow Priestland to come on and kill of any Italian fightback.

Rhys Webb is crucial to the Welsh attack.
Rhys Webb: Speaking of Webb, he was the biggest factor in the change of Welsh fortunes last week, he got the forwards organised much faster, meaning they were ready to take the ball - on the charge - and attack the retreating defence. His support lines are second to none in the northern hemisphere and should any Welsh player break the line you can guarantee Webb will be there to take the scoring
pass. Needs to show a full game performance before he prepares to do battle with the best scrum half in the world in June.


George North: With license to roam he should be out there to touch the ball as much as possible, take on the Italian backs in the 12-13 channel and look to exploit and weak shoulders that are presented to him. Last year he scored a hat-trick in this fixture, he'll be looking to do the same again. He's been (statistically) the best attacking player in the tournament, now is the time to prove it.
Ken Owens to lead the second wave.



Ken Owens: From the bench "cannonball Ken" will look to continue his (unwanted) super-sub title, will add a huge amount of dynamism, and explosive ball carrying to the Welsh in the second half, and against tired Italian legs - who hopefully would have
been moved around the park a lot - he could have a massive impact towards Wales second half scores.

Sunday, 13 March 2016

England march on, as Wales give mixed performance


Where to start with that game? For 65 minutes Wales put together one of the most appalling performances they have ever produced under Gatland, they were lethargic in the kick chase, limp in ball carries and totally bereft of ideas in attack. Not to mention the beyond woeful defence that will have had Shaun Edwards screaming to rafters. And then for 15 minutes after a raft of substitutions, Wales seemed to flick a switch and suddenly look like a team full of Lions and arguably the best team in the Northern Hemisphere.

Haskell lead the English charge with typical ferocity.
First things first, let's take nothing away from England. They played an exceptional game, no bones about it. They started of looking to spread the ball wide and catch Wales' defence unawares by using their big ball carriers as foils for their backs. It forced Wales to second guess their blitz defence system, and suddenly were just allowing England to eat up the yards with the likes of Mike Brown and Anthony Watson enjoying the empty spaces. From that early sign of intent, content that Wales
were in shock, England returned to their abrasive choke-hold best. Then went about the game with a ferocity and brutality that couldn't be matched. In attack they won the gain battle again and again with the likes of Vunipola and Haskell battering the Welsh defence, allowing the outside backs chance to exploit the holes. In defence they double tackled every Welsh player carrying ball - often while standing still - creating agonisingly slow ball for the Welsh half backs. To be honest England's game plan was simple, breakdown ferocity, tackle brutality and an efficient set piece, all of which culminated in allowing points machine Owen Farrell to punish every Welsh infringement.

England were helped by whistle happy Craig Joubert, and while he had a largely balanced game with the same decisions being applied to both sides, he is starting to get a reputation for being far to quick to blow the whistle and end the play. Compare that to the likes of Nigel Owens, Wayne Barnes; and Angus Gardner who refereed Ireland vs Italy earlier in the day, who are far happier to play advantage and let the game keep flowing. Joubert gave players almost no time to roll away from the tackle, and mixture of Welsh players failing to adapt to the interpretation and English players using some sportsmanship and intentionally trapping the Welsh players in the ruck, England gathered a swathe of penalties upon which they could build their lead.

Itoje was excellent,  future Test Lion for sure.
England still, despite their utter dominance, only managed to score one try, which came from a Maro Itoje break (Welsh players yet again falling off tackles) and then the simple execution of a 2-on-1. If England have any grand schemes of felling the Southern Hemisphere teams they are going to need to look to score more tries, rather than just accepting the penalties when they come. But for the 6 Nations they are playing the perfect game.

On the other side of the pitch, Wales managed to produce such a contrasting display it is hard to say what Wales will take from this game into Italy next weekend. Let's discuss the first performance first. Wales have prided themselves on their defence for almost a decade now, it didn't exist this game. Time and time again England found holes to run through, time and time again defenders fell of their tackles, it was a sickness. I can only imagine what Shaun Edwards was saying in the changing room at half time. Alex Cuthbert will be disappointed, after having had a good defensive game against France last time out, once again he seemed incapable of making a tackle as even Anthony Watson fended him off at one point. When Wales had the ball they struggled to gain any momentum, largely because of the aforementioned English defence, but also the forwards look tired and unwilling to do the hard work. Rob Evans - the young prop - who so often this tournament has been seen doing strong carries was non-existent this game except at the scrum. Any forward that looked to carry off 9, was static when receiving the ball allowing the English tackles to smother them and kill all momentum. This slow possession then meant that Gareth Davies couldn't initiate any sniping runs, Dan Biggar couldn't get his back-line moving, and Jamie Roberts was always getting caught behind the gain-line.

All of this meant Wales had to kick the ball a lot, far more often than they usually would. Which highlighted just how tired they look. Wales' kick chase was just plain woeful, so long it has been a real weapon of Wales, but today players were leaving huge holes for the likes of Brown and Nowell to run into on the counter attack. They also struggled to win the aerial battle, outside of Liam Williams covering the England launched bombs, which meant they couldn't try and claim territory victories like they have for so long. It stemmed from a simple lacking of cohesion caused by England's feroicty, but you have to question how Wales didn't see it coming. It was the exact style of play England used to beat Scotland in the "big opening match" and should have seen it coming, and adapted.
Biggar struggled to get any sort of game going, under the immense pressure from the likes of Kruis and Haskell.
Eventually Wales did adapt, although it was with only 15 minutes left in the game. It came about from a change of scrum-half largely. The introduction of Rhys Webb saw a sudden rise in the tempo of Welsh play, suddenly forwards were coming on to the ball at pace and winning the gainline battle, Webb was getting the ball away from the breakdown swiftly and not allowing England to set their defence. It gave the Welsh attack room to breathe, and with room to breathe Wales suddenly looked lethal. With the introduction of Rhys Priestland to the fly-half slot, Wales started playing flatter, with England on the back foot from Webb it meant they could make massive inroads. Using their Roberts as a decoy runner Wales saw some promise and got the likes of Jonathan Davis and George North in plenty of space in which they can show what made them so sought after by clubs.
Getting players like Davies attacking wide and at pace,
is how Wales should be playing.

It showed just what Wales are capable of when they get front foot ball, and play heads up rugby. You worry that they often go into the game with a game-plan set in their heads and it takes a lot for them to deviate from it. If they just played with a little more adventure and confidence to use the wider channels they look like a team that can take on the southern hemisphere sides. I think maybe the lack of crisp attack has stemmed from Dan Biggar at fly-half. When he has Rhys Webb inside him he is much more confident, able to play much flatter because he knows what Webb is going to do more than current scrum half Gareth Davies. Which means the Welsh attack looks more threatening, while recently he's sat a little deeper and relied on his kick-and-chase prowess more than his ability to make plays. It is something the Welsh management need to consider going into the game against Italy next weekend.
Webb to start?

So for Italy what should Wales do? For starters they should go out their to play the sort of rugby we saw at the end against England, get their big men moving in space where their speed and size can make a big impact. Rhys Webb needs to start alongside Dan Biggar to see if they can function again and bring Wales' attack alive, if not Rhys Priestland deserves a lengthy period on the field to show what he can do. Other than that the forwards need to find their ferocity again, and remember that they are international level players. Alun Wyn Jones has been a shadow of his usual self this tournament and was simply out shone by Maro Itoje at Twickenham. But on top of that they need to stop attempting to make one man ball carries, far too often they end up getting isolated and conceding a penalty in good attacking positions. Despite no silver-ware being up for grabs against Italy, Wales should go out their to showcase their attacking ability and aim to put the sort of score on them that Ireland achieved. With a tour to New Zealand in a few month, Wales need to show how good they are with ball in hand. In defence they have to be more solid, yes they only conceded one try against England, but they could have easily shipped two or three more, and against New Zealand they would have. Wales need to look ahead to the summer, meanwhile England head to Paris to try and earn a well deserved Grand Slam.
Once again the Welsh fly-half debate is raging, Biggar was so good in the World Cup, but has struggled in the 6 Nations.

Thursday, 10 March 2016

Ding Ding Rematch of the Decade! (England vs Wales preview)


It all comes down to this, the only two teams left in the tournament unbeaten, England on course for a Grand Slam. Realistically this game decides the location of the trophy for the next year. If Wales continue their impressive record at Twickenham it's a matter of beating bottom team Italy in Cardiff a week later. England have the slightly harder fixture against an out of sorts France in Paris to finish the championship. Both teams would feel confident in winning their final match, as such both are seeing Saturday's game as a cup final.

There has been so much hype for this game from the media. Both coaches have been dropping the proverbial grenade at their press conferences, discussing selection choices, weaknesses, strengths, and why they think they'll have the better of the other. Away from the coaches the pundits and ex players have been picking apart the tactics and styles of the two teams, trying to decide where the game will be won and lost.

Marler's technique has been under scrutiny.
In the past few days a lot has focused on the scrum battle, it always seems to be a major point of England-Wales games. In the historic 30-3 demolition in Cardiff three years ago, it was the Welsh scrum that set the tone. In the World Cup it was the scrummaging of Joe Marler that got focused on by commentators and pundits. At once again it has been the focal point, as both coaching teams have out right stated the other team is performing illegal activities at the scrum - to be honest, no team in the world is totally innocent. For Wales it's once again the "angling in" of Marler that is the point they've attempted to bring to the attention of referee Craig Jourbert, where-in he doesn't drive straight like a prop should and instead causes a collapse by boring into the tight head prop. For England it is the allegation of Wales "pre-engaging" and ruining the contest of the scrum, in fact Eddie Jones was incredibly blunt about it claiming referee's would only penalise it early on in the game before worrying about being accused of "ruining the game". Something for Joubert (especially after his infamous role in the World Cup quarter finals) to think about. It is certainly going to be an interesting part of the contest with Wales having had a lot of success this year from their two young props, while England possess the more experienced front row. The weather conditions on Saturday are looking good, so scrums aren't likely to dominate the game from handling errors too much.

Roberts to run over Ford?
Away from the scrum it looks like the battle of contrasting backs. Wales are going to bring the same tactics they always have. Big men, running hard lines at the defence, the likes of Jamie Roberts, George North and Alex Cuthbert will be aiming to bludegeon their way over the (relatively) light weight England midfield, with George Ford being the likely target for the Welsh assault.

Away from the well documented "Warrenball", what can be expected from the Welsh attack? Well first and foremost will be their kicking game, with Dan Biggar and Liam Williams hoisting contestable kicks in an effort to win the territory game. Both are arguably some of the best players in the air, although England possess their own athletic kick winners in Mike Brown and Anthony Watson, so it's not a for gone conclusion. Wales on principle much prefer to keep the ball in play, over kicking for touch, believing that they will win the game in the final 20 minutes with their superior fitness out doing the opposition and opening up the spaces to create the match winning moments. This will mean Wales' kicks are less likely to be directed to touch, but with the attacking threat from deep that England possess in Brown, Watson and Billy Vunipola their kick chase is going to have to be at another level to prevent England making easy yards on the return. Wales have another tactic when it comes to the boot, generally focused around the left foot of Jonathan Davies in the 13-channel. It's an alternative weapon to the endless barrage of big bodies on the gainline, after Wales have softened up the opposition and the back three has been moved around, it allows Davies to keep the pressure on with a kick in behind the defence for the likes of Cuthbert and North to chase through and pressurise the fullback. Wales love the pressure game trusting their defence to force the opposition to make a mistake upon which they can capitalise, the kicking game is their primary method of doing this, can England cope with it?
Davies' kicking game is an added dimension for Wales, but does he over use it, in favour of passing?

For England the attack is the opposite end of the spectrum lacking any real size in the back-line, they rely on their forwards to win the gain-line battle, slowly drawing in more defenders in and around the break down. At which point with their twin play maker system they have the handling and decision making ability in the wide channels to execute the opportunities presented. There was a lot of talk pre team announcement that Tuilagi would return to the starting line up in an attempt to combat Wales' big ball carriers. Instead they have kept the Ford-Farrell pivot that has proven so successful, Farrell is one of the top assist leaders for this years tournament with his ability to perfectly time the pass on the try line. In recent years the Welsh wingers defence has been suspect - especially Cuthbert's - and now against and England team that are scoring a lot of tries at the edge of the pitch they are going to have to be on the top of their game to prevent the English scoring. These tries would not have occurred were it not for the hard graft of the likes of Kruis, Haskell and Robshaw in the tight exchanges
Vunipola is a tackler magnet, star performer so far.
making carries around the breakdown, which drags in defenders. It's tough, unsatisfying work, but that perfectly sums up what Eddie Jones has installed in his pack - an insatiable appetite for hard work. But even then it has been the ball carrying of one man in particular who has set up England's attack time and time again, Billy Vunipola. Without a doubt the player of the tournament so far, he is third in the overall yards made stats, and second only to North in defenders beaten. He is a human wrecking ball, never gets put behind the gainline, always takes two or three defenders to bring him down, but combines that with a pair of hands only those from the South-Sea islands seem to possess with his ability to offload even when swarmed by defenders. If anyone is going to be the fulcrum for England's win it is Big Billy.

In defence both teams operate a similar system, executed in slightly different ways. Wales' defensive system has been the same since Shaun Edwards was employed, it is a well organised defensive "umbrella" blitz. The outside backs push up hardest and attempt to force the opposition back inside where the Welsh forwards are waiting to make the tackle. The crux-point of this defence is the outside centre (Jonathan Davies), it is his duty to blitz hardest whilst also making the correct decision as to where the ball will end up in order to take the player man-and-ball. If he get's it wrong it's cataclysmic and the fullback/wings have got to scramble well; if he get's it right it obliterates the opposition attack and allows players like Warburton and Alun Wyn Jones to force a turnover.

England's new defensive system is courtesy
of Paul Gustard.
England also use the blitz but instead run a "chaos" blitz. It's a case of every player for themselves, as they rush as hard as possible to get at the opposition and put them under pressure. It has been very effective by-and-large for England, against Scotland a normally composed fly-half in Finn Russell looked wildly out of his depth against the onrushing Englishmen. It is not a readable or predictable defence, but against the wrong opponents it can be picked apart, as shown by Ireland. If the play-makers in the opposition team can spot the dog legs which always occur in this system and their support players make the right lines, they can be exploited to devastating effect. The fly-half has to be calm under pressure and capable of making the right call in a split second, it's not easy especially with the an 18 stone James Haskell charging at you, looking to cut you in half. Defence has been key in the 6 Nations for years now, for once it could be down to who unpicks the defence who decides a game.




Match-Ups

Vunipola vs Faletau:
Faletau provides more overall, but lacks the power of
Vunipola.
The two cousins go to war again, both are rated among the greatest No. 8's in the northern hemisphere. Faletau has earned his respect over the last 4 years, with a consistently high level of performance in every game. He does the hard work, always at the top of the tackle charts, always at the top of the carry charts too. Has incredible athletic ability which always sees him near the action no matter how far up the pitch. He built an incredible partnership with Rhys Webb last season, where they produced great tries against great opponents, it hasn't quite clicked to the same level with Gareth Davies, but Faletau remains crucial to Wales' fortunes. Vunipola meanwhile grabs the spotlight with his hard charges scattering defenders for fun. Much more in the mold of the classic No. 8 who made the big carries (Dallaglio & Quinnell), he has improved ten fold under the tutelage of Eddie Jones and if he continues his form, it will be tough to choose between him and Faletau for the Lions shirt.

Watson vs North:
On current form these two are the Lions test wingers for the tour of New Zealand. North has the raw physicality combined with a pace he's not given much credit for, a proven try scorer at international level and has finally rediscovered the form that put him on the map and made him the star of the Lions tour in Australia. His try against Scotland was classic North; pace, power, strength and footwork; taking him past four defenders. He could look to exploit the small stature of Ford coming from the blindside of play. Watson is the opposite side of the wing spectrum thriving on his incredible acceleration and mesmerising footwork to beat defenders, unlocking defences and making space for his team mates. He is a nightmare to defend against, loves getting involved in the middle of the park where he can take on less fleet-of-foot players and strut his stuff. His training at fullback means his ability under the high ball in superb, and against North it could be something that England look to exploit.
North and Watson are the star wingers for each side, who's going to have the biggest impact this weekend?

Webb's speed of service is something Wales
have lacked at the breakdown.
Care vs Webb:
From the bench these two could play a big part in deciding the out come of the game. Danny Care adds a much higher tempo to the England game when he is on the field, his sharpness at the breakdown is something many teams struggle to deal with, see the Italy game this year, where he was instrumental in England taking apart the Azzuri. It's a little confusing as to why he is stuck on the bench when he seems to make England a much bigger threat when he is on the field. Perhaps it's Jones wanting to up the tempo at the end of the game after the opposition have been exhausted by England's barrage of forward power, or maybe he feels Ben Youngs offering more control and direction in the early part of the game. Meanwhile Rhys Webb is Wales' preferred scrum half choice but has only just returned from a lengthy injury, he has looked sharp for the Ospreys in recent weeks, including scoring a typical try. His speed of service at the breakdown is second to none, and fly-half Dan Biggar will welcome the return of his international team mate (since the age of 15). It will be interesting to see what affect these two have on the final outcome.

Prediction

It could not be tighter to call, both teams have so much riding on this game. England are out for blood after the events of the World Cup, Wales look to yet again steal the championship from underneath England's nose. Twickenham holds no fear for the Welsh so home advantage could count for very little. Wales have been incredibly successful at disrupting lineouts this season and England's lineout has faltered somewhat, along side the scrum this will make the set piece an incredibly interesting facet of the game. Both teams like to kick the ball and attempt to regather. Both teams have got a ferocious defence which haven't leaked tries this season. Both teams have got a prolific goal kicker. Both teams have got their impact subs on the bench: Tipurics, Owens & Webb vs Clifford, Care & Tuilagi. Wales have the only "true" openside flanker and Warburton will hopefully reap those rewards, but England have the aggressive Haskell who will be crucial in the effort to stop human missile Jamie Roberts. It is a finely balanced game that will likely - yet again - come down to one moment of magic from the winning side. 

Prediction - England - by less than a score.