Sunday, 6 March 2016

6 Nations Half-time Review

Half way into the tournament, who looks like their gonna pick up the trophy in 3 weeks time?
Three matches in and the teams are beginning to show what they are capable of. So how has each team fared this far, who has been their standout performer and who do I want to see more of on the international stage.

1st - England

Three from three, you can't say much more than that. It hasn't been a festival of attractive rugby from Eddie Jones, none of the ultra-high tempo rugby he implemented with Japan in the World Cup. Instead he has taken England back to their gritty best. Best shown when they went up to Scotland in the opening weekend, it was like witnessing a MMA fighter being choke held, as England simply battered Scotland with ferocious forward power and stunned their attack at every turn. It was a
Vunipola has been England's focal point in attack.
masterclass in ugly rugby. Not everything has been "traditional England", the set piece hasn't been a terrifying force, and they haven't ruled from the maul either, but the breakdown and tackle ferocity is back.

They have slowly begun to build on that foundation, against Italy after a tricky first half they turned on the lethal killer instinct to score four second half tries. Two weeks later they combined both previous games into one against Ireland. A dominant first half where they lacked that precision that is required in international rugby had people questioning their credentials. Before a powerful second half period which resulted in two excellently crafted tries, produced by strong forward carries in the 22, slowly producing the width which the double playmaker system could exploit.

It's in fact the twin pivot system that I think has been England's biggest success so far this tournament. Having two excellent distributors in the back field has given England options all over the park, in fact Owen Farrell has caused the creation of two or three tries by acting as second receiver and timing the pass to perfection. George Ford hasn't been at his world class best, but has shown signs of returning to confidence, and having the added pressure of goal kicking removed from his duties allows him to focus on running the game. Despite this clear success there is talk that Manu Tuilagi will be returned to the England set up in the 12 shirt, replacing Owen Farrell. It seems a bit odd to replace a winning combination, especially since it would require a large shift in attacking styles and would throw the last month and a half of training and test matches out the window. Only Eddie Jones can answer these questions.
Farrell currently leads the tournament in assists, and a second play-maker has proven very effective so far.
Itoje has potential.

Best Player: Billy Vunipola - He has been simply exceptional, in the classic mold of a great No. 8 he has been a human wrecking ball, bowling defenders over at will and making yards for fun. The fact is still on 23 is insane considering the responsibility he has been given (being named Vice-Captain) and just how crucial he is to England now. The question is can he maintain this form, especially with Wasps' Nathan Hughes qualifying for England soon, and become the best number eight in the world. He's off to a good start.

Player I'd like to see more: Maro Itoje - He started against Ireland, and showed his talents. He did nothing spectacular, but did all of the hard work, strong ball carrying and occasionally showed his impressive handling skills. With crunch matches ahead Jones' might trump experience over potential but Itoje is pushing seriously hard for a starting berth.

2nd - Wales

Davies is quick, but
needs to work on
decisions.
As per tradition Wales have had a shakey start to the tournament but progression is being noticed. Against Ireland they tried to play too wide too quickly with little attacking penetration and some simple decision making problems costing them. It didn't help that a few vital players were feeling their way back to full test fitness (Liam Williams, Jonathan Davies, Sam Warburton). A week later against Scotland for a 20 minute period they resorted to type and blew Scotland away with power with Jamie Roberts to the fore. And then France was a drab affair where Wales did what was required to claim the win, they could and should have won by more but basic handling errors and decision making in the wider channels cost them tries. It's be a story of progression for the Welsh, slowly starting to create chances for tries, but still lacking the basic skills that the Southern Hemisphere take for granted both in forwards and backs. This was wildly apparent against France where Gareth Davies made a searing break - something he'd been doing every game - and ended up setting up a 3 man overlap, but chose the wrong option and the chance disappeared. Gareth Davies has been Wales' greatest attacking threat so far this tournament, if he could just add cool decision making to that he would be the whole package.

Warburton is better at openside.
A lot of this growth for the men in red has focused around the back row. For almost two years the Welsh public have been begging for Gatland to select both Tipuric and Warburton in the same team hoping to recreate the success they had against England in 2013. For the opening two matches they tried it, and it didn't work. For whatever reason the dual openside that works very well for Australia (and Scotland too so far), didn't for Wales. Maybe it had something to do that Tipuric isn't as prolific over the ball as Warburton, and due to Warburton playing a different role than he was used to he wasn't as involved as he'd like to be. Against France the return of Dan Lydiate, saw the return of Sam Warburton to form. It showed just how much Warburton understands Lydiate and his game because he can go and roam around the wider channels looking for opportunities knowing that Lydiate is doing the hard nosed donkey work in the tight exchanges. Wales seem to play much better when Lydiate in the backrow, he makes Tipuric and Warburton look like much better players. It's simply a question as to which openside flanker wears the starting shirt.

The other really encouraging part of the tournament has been the return of George North to some semblance of the Test Lion he was. He's scored two tries, one of which was typical George North combining power, strength and speed to breeze past four would be tacklers from 30 meters out. He has been utilized much more by the Welsh backs, attacking in the middle of the park, in and around the 13 channel where he can exploit one on one tackles. He's also shown that he has gotten faster, utterly steaming past the French players on the way to a (fortunate) try. If Wales want to really succeed and score some wondrous tries North is their crux figure who can both start and finish moves with his ability to suck in defenders. 

North has been showing moments of what made him world-feared, can he keep going and score more tries?
What Wales need is just that link player who can spot the gaps, the play, and take the right options. Jonathan Davies on the Lions tour showed he is excellent at this, but has struggled with it this year, preffering to kick than to pass. Liam Williams is regarded as a lethal attacker who can create opportunities at will, but he has been coming back to from a long injury and not looked like himself so far. Just Tipuric is capable of it, but he's got to get in the team first. Rhys Priestland and Gareth Anscombe offer a more attacking threat from outside-half willing to take the ball to the line more, but in selecting them you sacrifice the practically legendary kick and chase of Biggar, not to mention his defensive abilities. It's a problem that should be solveable with enough game time for the likes of Davies and Williams, Wales just need to start backing themselves to convert the chances they make.

Best Player: Jamie Roberts - Somehow didn't get man of the match against Ireland, picked it up against Scotland for another herculean effort. Self-admitting that he is into the final third of his career, he has upped his performance level to new heights. Simply brutal in defence constantly seen wrapping opposition attacks up in full body crunching hits, driving them backwards and denying the offload. In attack he's developed his style, using angles to hit weaker shoulders and flat foot
Jamie Roberts has been superhuman at times this season
defenders, the line he picked for his try against Scotland was simply perfect. He is crucial to Wales in both attack and defence and they are not the same team without him. People claim he can't link the play like a "real 12", but he does have the ability to pass, Wales just don't use it, preffering to keep things simple

Player I'd like to see more: Gareth Anscombe - His Super Rugby skills are something Wales are dearly lacking, he could be introduced at fullback with 20 minutes or so left (shifting Liam Williams to wing), which would give Wales a second pivot on the field who can create opportunities and choose the right options in the wider channels to allow the finishing ability of the likes of North and Liam Williams to truly shine at the end of the game. It could be a risky ploy, but with Wales looking to play with more width it could pay off a great deal, he could play a similar role to Ben Smith of the All Blacks.

3rd - France

Plisson has had mixed fortunes this tournament.
On the scoreboard France seem to be doing okay, they won their first two matches, including defending champions Ireland. Before succumbing to defeat in Cardiff on a Friday night. But in reality it's been a case of a misfiring French team that are still looking for that game style which will define their era under Noves. Against Italy they showed glimpses of attacking intent and serious threat, but their defence was flimsy and porous, in reality it was a game they should have lost, but Plisson steered the ship in tricky times and nailed some difficult kicks to win it. A week later Ireland came to Paris, once again they did just enough to get over the line, one piece of magic from fullback Medard got them out of jail, but their defence was much improved although it was a much weakened Irish side. Then Cardiff happened a truely dismal French performance that had no threat except from driving mauls, a defence which gave up ground easily and literally no direction from Plisson. 

In fact against Wales, France's best attack came when Trinh-Duc came on to the field, adding that element of the exotic and unexpected to the French attack which caused Wales some problems. The only worry that playing Trinh-Duc might have is the lack of control, in exchange for the attacking opportunities. Alongside the ever present fly-half debate is the scrum-half one, although the selection of Machenaud offered France a tempo that they haven't had in a while, and is potentially the reason Plisson failed to deliver as he lacked the speed of thought to keep up with the sprite scrum-half who's been playing with Daniel Carter all season. 

France have struggled with injuries in the backline this tournament, first the fan favourite Wesley Fofana gets injured before the first match, then Gael Fickou picks up an injury, not to mention the fiasco at wing which ended up in them bringing an ineligible player into the squad. Any team would struggle to find any consistency in the back play with that body count. Although one consistent performer has been Jonathan Danty at inside centre, he's shown an eagerness to play in the blue of France, with strong ball carrying and firm defence. But he has combined that with a wonderfully deft pair of hands which are capable of releasing the ball from contact to allow those around him to exploit the stressed defence. With the likes of Fikou, Fofana (eventually) and the former 7's player Vakatawa this could be a major problem for teams in the future as France develop. 

Danty has been a force in France's backline, he needs to be nurtured on the international stage and he could become brilliant.
Vakatawa has it all, why isn't he being used right?
Best Player: Guilhem Guirado - It's been a case of captain fantastic from the Toulon player. Been consistently the top performer for France all tournament, dragging his players forward with powerful ball carrying, intelligent link play, and a desire to succeed for his country. It's a shame that other players have let him down, because he has been simply superb, scored a well deserved try against Wales and I hope that France can build a team around him and his performances because he is laying an excellent foundation.

Player I'd like to see more: Virimi Vakatawa - Yes he's played every minute of every game so far, but he has been utilised wrong, whether it's a personal fault or a coaching one is unclear but it is a fault none the less. He has superb athletic ability, incredibly pace, a simply lethal pair of feet for beating defenders. We saw all of this in the first 10 minutes against Italy where he performed a perfect corner finish for a try, knowing exactly where his foot was and making the over committing defender look like a fool. However since that moment he's been actually found around the ruck more than on his wing, acting like another flanker carrying in the short exchanges. It seems a massive waste of talent for such an exciting player, and France need to instead work him into space out-wide.

4th - Scotland

It's difficult to assess Scotland this tournament two solid defeats against England and Wales took the glossy sheen off the World Cup performances. The game against England was a dull affair for the Scots, unable to function against an aggressive English side, they looked rudderless and pedestrian. In Cardiff it was a much changed performance, a high tempo set by Laidlaw combined with a confident Finn Russell gave Wales some problems early on and were it not for Wales returning to their power-based routes Scotland might have stolen a win.

Hogg is doing everything you expect of Scotland's best player.
Then came Scotland's real chance to show what they are made of against Italy. It was a real display of attacking rugby from Scotland with Stuart Hogg showing everything that made him a member of the Lion's squad, as he created two tries for his team mates showing off excellent footwork and perfect timing of the pass. Working the space for him to show his talents stems from Greig Laidlaw though. When the captain is on his game, he causes problems for fringe defence at the ruck with his runs from the breakdown, which allows his forwards to gain yards, giving Soctland forward momentum. Which opens up the space in the wide channels for likes of Hogg, Seymour and Duncan Taylor to run riot. 

In the pack WP Nel continued his excellent form, giving Scotland not only a stable scrum but a weaponised scrum. He caused England problems in the first round, and utterly took Italy to pieces in the third, only the youthful Rob Evans of Wales kept him in check, and even then not always. If Scotland aim to grab any more victories this year he will be crucial to their hopes against France and then Ireland. As will the double openside system which so far has been not only productive but problematic for other teams, playing against the same system when they faced Wales, Hardie and Barclay clearly out shone Warburton & Tipuric. They have both been instrumental to Scotlands defense and attack. Both win turnovers at the breakdown, both have shown their ability to link play, both have scored tries. The only question is whether Denton is doing enough to cover the "missing" ball carrier that would be the blindside flanker, although the Gray brothers are doing more than enough work for three locks between them.
Barclay and Hardie have been a wonderful double act, giving Scotland plenty of attacking threat.
Visser to shine for Scotland?
Best Player: Stuart Hogg - Without a doubt, when he went off against Wales Scotland obviously lost that attacking threat. He was their best player against England and looked like their only chance of stealing a win, and was simply unplayable against Italy. At the minute he is the best fullback in the British Isles and would wear the 15 shirt if a Lions team was picked tomorrow. Brave in defence, confident in attack, can link play, has a huge boot and can knock penalties over from 60m on occassion, and that doesn't even mention is raw speed which no other fullback in the 6 Nations can match.

Player I'd like to see more: Tim Visser - Has been having a good season for Harlequins scoring a fair few tries, developing his game as well. He's become a good exponent of the kick chase using his speed and size to disrupt opponents kick return system. He doesn't get much consideration for Scotland, and has never quite delivered on the international stage, but he does have tries in him, and give him a bit of space there aren't many player who can catch him, let alone bring him down. If he could link up with Hogg he could rack up the tries for Scotland.

5th - Ireland

Even a team with Ireland's recent form can't survive the raft of crucial injuries in important positions. It started well enough moving to a 13-0 lead against Wales, but it's been a constant struggle the rest of the tournament. Without the likes of O'Mahony, O'Brien and Henderson has caused them major issues at the breakdown. Ireland have always been proud of their ability to create quick ball, and to seriously slow the opponents ball down. Yet without the likes of the players mentioned they are lacking that international quality which allowed them to dominate games.

Sexton is once again the fulcrum of Ireland's attack.
This lack of quality in the pack has also destablised their notoriously fearsome set piece. Their lineout has malfunctioned on multiple occasions, against England they blew two or three good lineout opportunities in the 22 as England simply stole the ball. Their scrum which was so often the start of their quick ball, hard carrying style, hasn't been strong enough to allow quick hooking of the ball and for Heaslip to get away and threaten the gain line. The return of Mike Ross against England saw some progression in the scrum which will give hope to Schmidt, but Ross is nearing the end of his international career and it seems they are lacking in a capable replacement.

In attack Ireland have shown a more expressive game style than they have in the past. Against Wales they found gaps in the wide channels which Sexton exploited excellently, and at Twickenham they made England looked porous at times with Sexton, Henshaw and others making some telling breaks in the middle of the park. Sexton was generally the architect of these line-breaks with his patented wrap around moves. Ireland's main problem has been the lack of finishers out wide, they are capable of making the breaks but they are unable to finish them off. Henshaw and Trimble have both had the opportunities to score (against England and Wales respectively) but were caught before they got to the line. It seems crazy that they are in possession of a talent like Craig Gilroy who is scoring tries for fun, from distance, in the PRO12 but isn't selected to wear green.
Gilroy could add that magic touch and creative touch to Ireland's attack, he is a lethal finisher.
Ireland have Italy and Scotland left in their schedule, two certainly winnable games for them, although both of them are arguably playing better than Ireland at the minute. Ireland need to capitalise on the opportunities Sexton makes, and to do that their back-three needs to focus on the traditional strengths of that position, finishing and speed, instead of taking kicks and high balls, something they have actually struggled with this season against both Wales and England.

McCloskey could be a star.
Best Player: Johnny Sexton - Back to his international best, accurate kicking from hand and from tee, and not to mention a running game which is unlocking defences at will. He is one of the few remaining generals left in the Ireland team with their raft of injuries, and he is doing his upmost to drag the team with him over the line. Forming a very good partnership with Henshaw at 12, and already almost telepathic with Murray at scrum half. If Ireland want anything out of the 6 Nations this year, Sexton is the man to do it.

Player I'd like to see more: Stuart McCloskey - The Ulster centre got his debut against England at Twickenham which isn't the easiest of games to learn the international game. He made very few
mistakes, and actually added an extra dimension to Ireland's attacking game with his offloading ability. If Schmidt is brave enough to pick youth in the centre then McCloskey/Henshaw could be a very productive centre partnership for years to come, they're both rock solid in defence and physical in attack.

6th - Italy

Gori is responsible for Italy's fast tempo game.
I'll admit I wrote Italy off going into the tournament this year, a dismal World Cup and Parisse starting to look past his prime was a grave warning. Instead they've been exciting, confident and while they are win-less and look to end that way have been worth the entry price. They were the better team against France in Paris, and only a few lapses in defence gave France the victory. Against England for 45 minutes they were cause England all sorts of problems and were making linebreaks with ease until they gave away a walk in try and imploded because of it. And then playing Scotland was a feast of rugby with both teams starting the game with intent to score tries, and playing with width.

This has primarily stemmed from the foundations at set piece upon which Eduardo Gorri has been able to dictate a fast and aggressive tempo of attack. This fast tempo game is important for teams like Italy who struggle to compete in an arm wrestle, if they can upset the big boys with attack after attack and frustrate them they stand a chance of winning the game. The ever present Parisse has been once again crucial, leading the charge with ball carrying, tries he even tried a drop goal to win it against France. Overall Italy have looked to move away from the forward dominated game they were recognised for, instead looking to move the ball wide early and use the young, fast and strong backs they have got in the likes of Sarto, Odiete and Campagnaro all promise an exciting few years if Italy continue down this path.

Campagnaro has been simply superb this season, he'd get into almost any side in the tournament on current form.


Can Canna solve Italy's fly half
problem?
Best Player: Michele Campagnaro  - How can you over look a player with 6 linebreaks (the highest in the tournament) and 12 defenders beaten. He has all the makings of a world class outside centre, he has pace, footwork, strength, great decision making and an excellent pair of hands. His recent move from Italy to Exeter Chiefs has improved his game no end. And the coaches are using him brilliantly, he positions himself to receive the ball in excellent space where he can take on his opposite number. So far this tournament he has been the best outside centre in every game he's played, and his faced off against the highly rated Fickou (France), Bennett (Scotland), and last years top try scorer Joseph (England). Italy have to continue to use him if they want to score tries.

Player I'd like to see more: Carlo Canna - What a game this young lad had against France, he was a one man points machine, casually dropping goals to keep the score board going, scoring a try with a will timed run, and eventually finding his kicking boots. His injury which kept him out of the Scotland game was awful for Italy, as he looked an excellent presence on the field, moving Italy around the field with direction and control and his distribution perfect for the game they are trying to play now.

Team of the Tournament (so far)

15) Stuart Hogg Scotland
14) Anthony Watson England
13) Michele Campagnaro Italy
12) Jamie Roberts Wales
11) George North Wales
10) Johnny Sexton Ireland
9) Connor Murray Ireland
1) Rob Evans Wales
2) Guilhem Guirado France
3) WP Nel Scotland
4) George Kruis England
5) Jonny Gray Scotland
6) CJ Stander Ireland
7) John Hardie Scotland
8) Billy Vunipola England

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