Ding Ding Rematch of the Decade! (England vs Wales preview)

It all comes down to this, the only two teams left in the tournament unbeaten, England on course for a Grand Slam. Realistically this game decides the location of the trophy for the next year. If Wales continue their impressive record at Twickenham it's a matter of beating bottom team Italy in Cardiff a week later. England have the slightly harder fixture against an out of sorts France in Paris to finish the championship. Both teams would feel confident in winning their final match, as such both are seeing Saturday's game as a cup final.

There has been so much hype for this game from the media. Both coaches have been dropping the proverbial grenade at their press conferences, discussing selection choices, weaknesses, strengths, and why they think they'll have the better of the other. Away from the coaches the pundits and ex players have been picking apart the tactics and styles of the two teams, trying to decide where the game will be won and lost.

Marler's technique has been under scrutiny.

In the past few days a lot has focused on the scrum battle, it always seems to be a major point of England-Wales games. In the historic 30-3 demolition in Cardiff three years ago, it was the Welsh scrum that set the tone. In the World Cup it was the scrummaging of Joe Marler that got focused on by commentators and pundits. At once again it has been the focal point, as both coaching teams have out right stated the other team is performing illegal activities at the scrum - to be honest, no team in the world is totally innocent. For Wales it's once again the "angling in" of Marler that is the point they've attempted to bring to the attention of referee Craig Jourbert, where-in he doesn't drive straight like a prop should and instead causes a collapse by boring into the tight head prop. For England it is the allegation of Wales "pre-engaging" and ruining the contest of the scrum, in fact Eddie Jones was incredibly blunt about it claiming referee's would only penalise it early on in the game before worrying about being accused of "ruining the game". Something for Joubert (especially after his infamous role in the World Cup quarter finals) to think about. It is certainly going to be an interesting part of the contest with Wales having had a lot of success this year from their two young props, while England possess the more experienced front row. The weather conditions on Saturday are looking good, so scrums aren't likely to dominate the game from handling errors too much.

Roberts to run over Ford?

Away from the scrum it looks like the battle of contrasting backs. Wales are going to bring the same tactics they always have. Big men, running hard lines at the defence, the likes of Jamie Roberts, George North and Alex Cuthbert will be aiming to bludegeon their way over the (relatively) light weight England midfield, with George Ford being the likely target for the Welsh assault.

Away from the well documented "Warrenball", what can be expected from the Welsh attack? Well first and foremost will be their kicking game, with Dan Biggar and Liam Williams hoisting contestable kicks in an effort to win the territory game. Both are arguably some of the best players in the air, although England possess their own athletic kick winners in Mike Brown and Anthony Watson, so it's not a for gone conclusion. Wales on principle much prefer to keep the ball in play, over kicking for touch, believing that they will win the game in the final 20 minutes with their superior fitness out doing the opposition and opening up the spaces to create the match winning moments. This will mean Wales' kicks are less likely to be directed to touch, but with the attacking threat from deep that England possess in Brown, Watson and Billy Vunipola their kick chase is going to have to be at another level to prevent England making easy yards on the return. Wales have another tactic when it comes to the boot, generally focused around the left foot of Jonathan Davies in the 13-channel. It's an alternative weapon to the endless barrage of big bodies on the gainline, after Wales have softened up the opposition and the back three has been moved around, it allows Davies to keep the pressure on with a kick in behind the defence for the likes of Cuthbert and North to chase through and pressurise the fullback. Wales love the pressure game trusting their defence to force the opposition to make a mistake upon which they can capitalise, the kicking game is their primary method of doing this, can England cope with it?

Davies' kicking game is an added dimension for Wales, but does he over use it, in favour of passing?

For England the attack is the opposite end of the spectrum lacking any real size in the back-line, they rely on their forwards to win the gain-line battle, slowly drawing in more defenders in and around the break down. At which point with their twin play maker system they have the handling and decision making ability in the wide channels to execute the opportunities presented. There was a lot of talk pre team announcement that Tuilagi would return to the starting line up in an attempt to combat Wales' big ball carriers. Instead they have kept the Ford-Farrell pivot that has proven so successful, Farrell is one of the top assist leaders for this years tournament with his ability to perfectly time the pass on the try line. In recent years the Welsh wingers defence has been suspect - especially Cuthbert's - and now against and England team that are scoring a lot of tries at the edge of the pitch they are going to have to be on the top of their game to prevent the English scoring. These tries would not have occurred were it not for the hard graft of the likes of Kruis, Haskell and Robshaw in the tight exchanges

Vunipola is a tackler magnet, star performer so far.

making carries around the breakdown, which drags in defenders. It's tough, unsatisfying work, but that perfectly sums up what Eddie Jones has installed in his pack - an insatiable appetite for hard work. But even then it has been the ball carrying of one man in particular who has set up England's attack time and time again, Billy Vunipola. Without a doubt the player of the tournament so far, he is third in the overall yards made stats, and second only to North in defenders beaten. He is a human wrecking ball, never gets put behind the gainline, always takes two or three defenders to bring him down, but combines that with a pair of hands only those from the South-Sea islands seem to possess with his ability to offload even when swarmed by defenders. If anyone is going to be the fulcrum for England's win it is Big Billy.

In defence both teams operate a similar system, executed in slightly different ways. Wales' defensive system has been the same since Shaun Edwards was employed, it is a well organised defensive "umbrella" blitz. The outside backs push up hardest and attempt to force the opposition back inside where the Welsh forwards are waiting to make the tackle. The crux-point of this defence is the outside centre (Jonathan Davies), it is his duty to blitz hardest whilst also making the correct decision as to where the ball will end up in order to take the player man-and-ball. If he get's it wrong it's cataclysmic and the fullback/wings have got to scramble well; if he get's it right it obliterates the opposition attack and allows players like Warburton and Alun Wyn Jones to force a turnover.

England's new defensive system is courtesy
of Paul Gustard.

England also use the blitz but instead run a "chaos" blitz. It's a case of every player for themselves, as they rush as hard as possible to get at the opposition and put them under pressure. It has been very effective by-and-large for England, against Scotland a normally composed fly-half in Finn Russell looked wildly out of his depth against the onrushing Englishmen. It is not a readable or predictable defence, but against the wrong opponents it can be picked apart, as shown by Ireland. If the play-makers in the opposition team can spot the dog legs which always occur in this system and their support players make the right lines, they can be exploited to devastating effect. The fly-half has to be calm under pressure and capable of making the right call in a split second, it's not easy especially with the an 18 stone James Haskell charging at you, looking to cut you in half. Defence has been key in the 6 Nations for years now, for once it could be down to who unpicks the defence who decides a game.

Match-Ups

Vunipola vs Faletau:

Faletau provides more overall, but lacks the power of
Vunipola.

The two cousins go to war again, both are rated among the greatest No. 8's in the northern hemisphere. Faletau has earned his respect over the last 4 years, with a consistently high level of performance in every game. He does the hard work, always at the top of the tackle charts, always at the top of the carry charts too. Has incredible athletic ability which always sees him near the action no matter how far up the pitch. He built an incredible partnership with Rhys Webb last season, where they produced great tries against great opponents, it hasn't quite clicked to the same level with Gareth Davies, but Faletau remains crucial to Wales' fortunes. Vunipola meanwhile grabs the spotlight with his hard charges scattering defenders for fun. Much more in the mold of the classic No. 8 who made the big carries (Dallaglio & Quinnell), he has improved ten fold under the tutelage of Eddie Jones and if he continues his form, it will be tough to choose between him and Faletau for the Lions shirt.

Watson vs North:
On current form these two are the Lions test wingers for the tour of New Zealand. North has the raw physicality combined with a pace he's not given much credit for, a proven try scorer at international level and has finally rediscovered the form that put him on the map and made him the star of the Lions tour in Australia. His try against Scotland was classic North; pace, power, strength and footwork; taking him past four defenders. He could look to exploit the small stature of Ford coming from the blindside of play. Watson is the opposite side of the wing spectrum thriving on his incredible acceleration and mesmerising footwork to beat defenders, unlocking defences and making space for his team mates. He is a nightmare to defend against, loves getting involved in the middle of the park where he can take on less fleet-of-foot players and strut his stuff. His training at fullback means his ability under the high ball in superb, and against North it could be something that England look to exploit.

North and Watson are the star wingers for each side, who's going to have the biggest impact this weekend?

Webb's speed of service is something Wales
have lacked at the breakdown.

Care vs Webb:
From the bench these two could play a big part in deciding the out come of the game. Danny Care adds a much higher tempo to the England game when he is on the field, his sharpness at the breakdown is something many teams struggle to deal with, see the Italy game this year, where he was instrumental in England taking apart the Azzuri. It's a little confusing as to why he is stuck on the bench when he seems to make England a much bigger threat when he is on the field. Perhaps it's Jones wanting to up the tempo at the end of the game after the opposition have been exhausted by England's barrage of forward power, or maybe he feels Ben Youngs offering more control and direction in the early part of the game. Meanwhile Rhys Webb is Wales' preferred scrum half choice but has only just returned from a lengthy injury, he has looked sharp for the Ospreys in recent weeks, including scoring a typical try. His speed of service at the breakdown is second to none, and fly-half Dan Biggar will welcome the return of his international team mate (since the age of 15). It will be interesting to see what affect these two have on the final outcome.

Prediction

It could not be tighter to call, both teams have so much riding on this game. England are out for blood after the events of the World Cup, Wales look to yet again steal the championship from underneath England's nose. Twickenham holds no fear for the Welsh so home advantage could count for very little. Wales have been incredibly successful at disrupting lineouts this season and England's lineout has faltered somewhat, along side the scrum this will make the set piece an incredibly interesting facet of the game. Both teams like to kick the ball and attempt to regather. Both teams have got a ferocious defence which haven't leaked tries this season. Both teams have got a prolific goal kicker. Both teams have got their impact subs on the bench: Tipurics, Owens & Webb vs Clifford, Care & Tuilagi. Wales have the only "true" openside flanker and Warburton will hopefully reap those rewards, but England have the aggressive Haskell who will be crucial in the effort to stop human missile Jamie Roberts. It is a finely balanced game that will likely - yet again - come down to one moment of magic from the winning side. 

Prediction - England - by less than a score.