Wales Autumn Review

Three wins from four, beaten two Rugby Championship teams, and up to 5th in the world. Based on those number Wales seemed to have had a successful Autumn series. However there remains an air of gloom around Welsh rugby over the quality of the performances which were on show. After a largely successful tour of New Zealand the Autumn was supposed to give Wales a chance to kick on and compete consistently. Instead after four games and an aggregate score of 92-95 there are more questions for Howley to ponder before they turn up in Rome at the start of the 6 Nations. So what are the talking points from the Autumn?

Wales completed a 75% Autumn Series by defeating South Africa, but there is more work to be done.

Breakdown Speed

Wales miss Webb's organisation when he's not playing.

This for me has been the biggest eye opener in terms of just how far off the leaders Wales are. The coaches constantly aspire to be at the same level at the All Blacks, with their intensity, their speed of thought, and execution. However for all of their prolific handling skills and decision making, the thing that makes the Kiwi's so dangerous is their ability to win the ruck and get the ball away faster than anyone else. Other teams out there are starting to get this consistent speed too, England and Australia are playing with pace and putting defences on the back foot with their intensity. 

Wales can talk all they like about playing an expansive game which utilises their dangerous backs, but you can't do this when your scrum half is leaving the ball at the breakdown for crucial seconds. It gives time for defences to get set and rush up to put the attackers under pressure. Wales' half-backs at time still look like they're stuck in the past, waiting for their attacking systems to be set up before
they try to use the ball. Yes you need some structure in place before you pass the ball away, but it simply takes too long currently for Wales. I'm sure it will begin to become more fluid and dynamic as they get used to the system, but it is a worry that it is taking them so long to get there. Especially when teams like England, Ireland and France are changing their game so quickly.

Wales need a scrum half who gets his forwards organised ahead of the next breakdown, if they're not going to organise themselves, and a fly-half who has got his back-line ready to unleash when the ball is available.

Decision Making

This is the other main issue in Wales' attack, we could also discuss handling ability and agility but that's neither here nor there. When Wales are going forward ball in hand and looking to break the line, consistently their ability to pick the hole or utilise an overlap let them down. Against South Africa there was a moment when Jonathan Davies made a superb break arcing around a second row and

Davies was responsible for one missed opportunity
(Huw Evans Photography)

getting in behind, which was superb. However he had two men outside him who could have broken the line themselves, at which point there would have been support and space to potentially score a try. 

It was hoped that the Kiwi-raised Anscombe would offer the sort of heads up, spot the gap, brilliance that Wales have wanted for a while. Instead because of the agonisingly slow ball that was presented to him against Japan, he was trying to open up a well organised and high pressing defence, something even the likes of Carter, Barrett and Foley would have problems with. Decision making, the ability to find holes, is made that much easier for a player when they are on the front foot against a retreating defence. 

So far we've only discussed the decision making of the player with the ball, but it's a two way street, the players around him need to be spotting the options and communicating with him. Players need to start taking a responsibility to run lines with intent, take the ball on the gain line aimed at weak shoulders. Additionally they should be thinking about support lines, too often when a Welsh player makes a break his team mates are having to react to it and catch up, leaving him without the ability to keep the ball alive. Compare to New Zealand, Australia and Argentina who expect their team mate to make a break and are looking to follow them through the hole to supply passing options.

Wales will only get better at assessing the options, picking the right runner, and providing support lines through practice under pressure, but they ideally need to be doing this with pace and intensity which forces defenders to retreat and give them the extra second to make a decision.

Defence is on the mend

Edwards under pressure.

I think it's safe to say no one was wanting to be Shaun Edwards for the last 9 months. Wales had been conceding tries at will, with usually dependable players missing tackles with regularity, and the infamous blitz defence appearing to have vanished into thin air. New Zealand, England and Australia had cruised through the red shirts to score on average five tries a game. However after the truly nightmarish Australia game things improved for Edwards and his defenders.

Argentina were suffocated with superb use of the "choke tackle", limiting an exciting side to two
opportunist tries is no mean feat. Against Japan the defence was largely untested, caught out once, and the other two tries came from interceptions. Then the Springboks rocked up - and while the South Africans made plenty of handling errors - the Welsh defence was solid throughout, doing what was expected denying any sort of realistic try scoring opportunity except for the one driving maul. 

It is a significant improvement, but it came from a position of travesty, there is still plenty of work to do before facing the simple - but intelligent - attack of England, the precise brilliance of Ireland, and the offloading flamboyance of a resurgent France. The return of Talupe Faletau will be important as he is consistently a top tackler for Wales, but the real problem area is on the wings, North and Cuthbert were both beaten far too easily far too often by passes and kicks. Work to be done, but encouraging signs.

Time for fresh faces?

Cuthbert lacking in
confidence.

Having mentioned the problems at wing, you wonder whether for some players their time in the red shirt has come to and end, even if temporarily. Alex Cuthbert takes a lot of flak from the public, primarily over his defence, and it has been an issue throughout his career. This was often overlooked because of his sheer try scoring ability, however in the last 12 months the tries have tried up and Cuthbert looks utterly defeated. Surely it is time for the coaches to drop him, for the 6 Nations, allow him to play week-in week-out for the Blues and rediscover the lethal nature that made him a try scoring Lion.

Other players are under similar threat from the axe, the previously mentioned Anscombe who failed to get a Welsh attack going against an inexperienced Japan, has been over taken by Sam Davies as second choice fly half. Anscombe still offers the ability to play at fullback as well so his time in the training squad may not be over yet. His Blues half-back partner, Lloyd Williams, suffered a similar frustration against Japan and I wouldn't be surprised if Howley and co. start looking at the likes of Aled Davies and Tomos Williams ahead of the 6 Nations as 3rd choice scrum half. 

There are options all over the park should Howley want to change things up in his squad. Tyler Morgan is back playing for the Dragons and offers a bit more pace at outside centre than Jonathan Davies. Hallam Amos played well against Australia before getting injured and could force his way in at wing. James Davies - the Olympic silver medallist - is playing brilliantly in the Scarlets backrow, Sam Parry ousted Scott Baldwin at the Ospreys earlier in the season, and Rory Thornton has been playing expertly in the absence of Alun Wyn for the Swansea based region. I'm not suggesting a total rip up of the Wales team, but it is nice to know the options are there should a change be needed.

Many Wales fans would like to see the exciting - 7's trained - James Davies in the Wales squad.

Team Selection

With plenty of players coming into rich veins of form, returning from injury or just continuing to play at levels that people have come to expect, the Welsh starting team could being to look very different to the line up that became so predictable under Gatland. 

Is it time up for Roberts in Wales?

Jamie Roberts no longer looks necessary, his gainline physicality isn't required as much as it used to be, and his defence has let him down in his previous outings. Scott Williams has come in and done a dependable - if unspectacular - job in his place, and provides a little bit more pace and subtlety to the Welsh attack. Tight-head now is a real competition for the shirt, Samson Lee hailed as the next great tight-head doesn't look like he did before his awful ankle injury, meanwhile Tomos Francis has produced two excellent scrummaging displays against arguably the two most feared scrums in the world - Argentina and South Africa. Both could add to their game, but it will be interesting going forwards who gets the 3 jersey. The hookers too are both playing at a similar level and each provides their own expertise to the position.

The biggest dilemma however comes in the backrow. Ever since the 2011 World Cup - assuming everyone was fit - you could name the Welsh backrow without a moments thought. Lydiate, Warburton and Faletau have ruled the shirts, and their balance so often the given reason behind their selection. However based on performances this autumn this selection no longer looks like the way forward. Justin Tipuric possesses the handling ability and decision making that Wales coaching staff want from all their forwards, but he combines this with consistently high tackle stats and an ability to win turnovers in the tackle. Even when Warburton was available he was selected at blind-side to accommodate the Osprey, is this the future for the Wales 7 shirt? 

Moriarty was Wales' player of the series.

The real big name from the autumn however is Ross Moriarty, who has been without a doubt Wales' best performer all series. He gives Wales a seriously powerful ball carrier, something they haven't really had in their pack for a long time, he gets Wales over the gainline consistently often taking two defenders with him. He is quick too, more than capable of appearing in the wide channels and making yards in space. Something Wales will want from their backrow if they want to emulate the Kiwi 2-4-2 style. But more than all of this his defence is utterly majestic at times; he makes the boring tackles that every blindside flanker and No. 8 is required to make, but he also makes the big game changing hits that can stop an attacking move dead in its tracks and give his teammates chance to organise. After the last four games if Howley has learnt anything, it is that Moriarty has to be on the field as much as possible. 

Captaincy

Warburton no longer
captain?

Seeing as I've mentioned that both Tipuric and Moriarty should be selected for Wales, and Faletau is - for me - the second best No.8 in the world, it means that Warburton is no longer on the field. Which means that the captaincy is open for discussion.

For me this has been a key issue for Wales over the past few seasons with Warburton being captain, and an excellent one at that, it's meant that Wales haven't been able to select Tipuric despite the form of the former Trebanos player. Warburton is also one of those players that seems plagued by injuries and never able to string a consistent number of performances together, which meant you never felt sure if he was at his best for Wales. If you take the captaincy away from him, he suddenly has to right for his position just as hard as everyone else and it could see a resurgence of the Blues man. 

So the question is who should take the metaphorical armband in his place. There are two names that jump out at you. Gethin Jenkins, who led Wales to two victories in the autumn, is the most capped Welsh player of all time, and closing in on the overall record. A superb player who is seemingly getting better with age, a nusiance at the breakdown and possessing a deft subtlety that some centres don't have. He has never really held the armband for an extended period, instead usually as a stop gap for when Warburton has been relieved on his return from injury. 

For me though the selection for Wales captain is an obvious one, Alun Wyn Jones. He is nothing short of an ever present inspiration for the players around him, able to grab the game by the scruff of the neck and drag Wales forwards with him. He wins turnovers, makes crucial tackles, charges head long into collisions, all while exuding a calm - if terrifying - visage. He has captained the Lions in the absence of Warburton, has been on two tours and looks odds on to take part in a third next summer. Wales are a different team when the lawyer is away, he is the first name on the team sheet for Wales, and that is the most important thing a captain must possess.

Alun Wyn Jones is a born leader who lifts everyone around him, with Warburton under pressure,
should he be made captain?

So that is what I've learnt from the Autumn Series for Wales, there is cause of optimism, but there is a long way to go if the targeted "top 4" position is to be achieved. Wales are at best the third best team in the 6 Nations at the moment, but could easily lose to everyone this year. It's time to look to the future and select the players on form, past performances mean nothing anymore.

Pedestrian Wales edge Slick Japan

The age old adage is "A win's a win". In that case Wales should be celebrating an Autumn Series which has provided two victories out of three so far. This couldn't be further from the truth. After the atrocity against Australia was some-what redeemed by a gritty - if nervous - display against Argentina, Howley and his team took about seven steps backwards. What were the key points this time for Wales, after they struggled to put a rookie Japan side away?

Japan almost pulled of another victory against the odds, Wales were poor but why? (Huw Evans Photography)

Halfpenny and Liam Williams

Halfpenny looked more natural at wing.

Let's start with the positives. For months, after the performances of Liam Williams for club and country, Welsh fans have been hoping to see him installed in the Wales 15 berth on a regular basis. This of course meant moving the stalwart Leigh Halfpenny elsewhere in the backline. Howley experimented with this set up against Japan, and by and large it worked pretty well. Bar one moment of ill discipline from Williams at fullback it looked like the best position for both the players. Liam Williams was king under the high ball mostly, and constantly looking to offer a counter attacking
threat, putting Wales back on the front foot after the opponents kicked the ball way. While Halfpenny seemed much more instinctive and relaxed out on the wing, it looked like the pressure was off. He made three line breaks, using strength and acceleration to burst onto passes from team mates, he looked dangerous and for someone who hasn't played wing in years looked more capable than his counterpart Cuthbert - who will be discussed later.

In terms of attacking threat Wales didn't offer much outside of these two for most of the game, and I think Howley has to stick with the system for South Africa - arguably a sterner test - because Wales need a winger with confidence and a fullback who can spark something to get them on the front foot. These are a precious commodity for those in the red shirt at the minute, and every little bit will count if Wales want that win.

Front Row

Another positive story here for the "second string" players. Okay that's a little harsh to Baldwin and Lee who 12 months ago were sure on starters for their jerseys, but none the less if we assume they were told to go out there and earn the shirts for the South Africa game none of them did they're name any harm. Samson Lee was the least noticed of the three, but provided the dominant scrum platform that was expected of him at tight head.

Baldwin was superb all day against Japan.

Meanwhile Scott Baldwin and Nicky Smith were appearing all over the pitch and producing yards that at times they had no right to. The the Osprey players gave Wales some great moment at times using footwork and ball handling to slip past wanna-be tacklers. It was the sort of play that has been lacking from Welsh forwards a bit so far this Autumn, the heads up rugby that the likes of New Zealand, Australia and England are all expecting - and getting - from their pack. It is a crucial requirement in the modern expansive fast paced game, and if the other Welsh forwards don't follow suit, they could continue to fall further behind.

It's unlikely that Nicky Smith is going to oust the legend that is Gethin Jenkins come this weekend, but it is comfort to know that there is an able replacement on the bench on match day. Scott Baldwin on the other hand may have just squeezed himself back in, after backing up his consistent lineout displays with an effective showing in open play.

Half-backs struggle

Anscombe failed to shine against Japan.

For Gareth Anscombe it was viewed as a chance for him to stake a claim for the Wales 10 shirt, showcase he is the right man to play an expansive and expressive style of rugby. Disappointingly it did not go to plan for him, nor his Blues halfback partner Lloyd Williams. And there can be no complains about "struggling behind a beaten pack" because the Welsh forwards had pretty much complete control over the set piece and breakdown.

Anscombe was supposed to offer an attacking threat, taking the ball to the line, and picking holes in the defence with a range of passing and intelligent kicks. To be honest we saw very little of this, I don't
remember one linebreak stemming from an action of Anscombe, and in terms of the little chips and grubbers that he had been using all season, we saw more from Jonathan Davies. You can maybe argue that Japan intentionally avoided the breakdown and filled the pitch with tacklers, but much more was expected of Anscombe. There were times where he looked bereft of ideas, unsure as to what his options were or how best to dictate the passage of play. The lack of organisation wider out meant Wales offered little in attack, and the ball was just moved down the line - at a ponderous rate.

Lloyd Williams failed to spark anything from scrum half either. The number of times the ball would be available to play at the breakdown and Williams would either still be jogging to the ruck, or he'd stand there and organise runners for 3 seconds was staggering. His box kicking was often too deep for Wales' players to get anywhere near competing for the ball. To be honest it was only a matter of time before he was replaced by Gareth Davies, although Davies didn't up the quality too much. You have to question whether either starting half-back stands much of a chance ever getting back into the starting team after abject performances like that

Wales without speed or tempo

This issue largely stemmed from the time wasting of Lloyd Williams at the breakdown, Wales were far too content on giving Japan the time to set up their defence and try and batter it down with one up runners 5m away from the breakdown. It slowed the whole game down, and made a sell out crowd eerily quiet as they looked for something to get excited by. It is hard to understand why this was such an issue, it's a caveat of top level rugby that the game has to be played with speed, quick breakdowns stop the defence organising and then it becomes easier to score. The All Blacks are the king of this, they refuse to leave the ball waiting at a breakdown, if the scrum half isn't there the ball is played by someone else. Australia are playing with this speed too, England are getting there as well. Wales on the other hand seem stuck in the past, only the scrum half can pass the ball, also everything has to be in perfect set up before we can pass it. 

If it's an issue stemming from players not getting into position fast enough, or not reading the field quickly to prepare the attack, then it's something that has to be worked on in training. Howley was the attack coach when Wales were in New Zealand, and they played with real tempo, forwards were

How much are Wales missing the command and
speed of Webb?

ready quickly and the backline was prepared in behind. Five months later this has disappeared and Wales look slow in their set up, slow to the breakdown, and scared to play with the ball.

This fear spreads further than the organisation at the breakdown, the backline looked hesitant and dull. It's hard not to compare to the likes of France and England, they're back-line is taking the ball at speed and looking to put tacklers under pressure, the passing is crisp and flat allowing the attack to stretch the defence. Wales by comparison were throwing passes on without committing defenders, only running hard when the ball is in their hands. Every pundit in Wales is condemning Wales' slow and frustrating game, but it is mad to think last summer Wales were attacking at 100% and putting the All Blacks under pressure. Are the players lacking in confidence? Are they confused what they're meant to be doing? These are questions that need to be sorted if Wales have any plans of competing in the 6 Nations.

Where were the substitutes?

Wales were rudderless and without spark for almost the entire game, but the naturally talented players remained on the bench, those able to change a game left kicking their heels. Gareth Davies eventually replaced Lloyd Williams to try and increase the tempo. Sam Davies got another 15 minute cameo at the end of the game, and to be honest Wales looked much more comfortable with him at the helm than Gareth Anscombe. Davies was playing with confidence, bringing players onto the ball, trying to make something happen, and directing Wales with kicks into the positions they needed to be. In fact one kick almost gave Cuthbert a try after it put Japan under pressure, if only Cuthbert was on better form, maybe Wales would have put Japan to the sword. Cuthbert is severely lacking in confidence and you question how much longer the coaching staff can defend his actions.

However the two players that perhaps had the real ability to change the fortunes of the match, Ross Moriarty and Keelan Giles, were left frustrated. Morarity has been Wales' stand out player for the first two games, tackling everything he could get his hands on, and punching tank sized holes in defences. He would have been the perfect player to come on and up the intensity of the Welsh pack, and get Wales on the front foot and in control.

Then there's the young Keelan Giles, given a chance to make his test debut and ignored. In a game where Alex Cuthbert was obviously struggling to make things stick, two tries which he would usually have finished went begging, how the coaches didn't bring on the exciting Giles is beyond me. It was the perfect game for Giles, the tries were out there they just needed a classy finisher to score them, and no offence to Japan but the physical challenge wouldn't have been above him. I feel sorry for Giles because he probably thought he could have made an impact, but his time will come. Until then I - along with a lot of Wales - will continue to question the inclusion of Cuthbert, if Howley's justification for selecting him is "he's a finisher" then it's not wonder Wales aren't scoring tries. If there arch-finisher is leaving tries on the field, then who is gonna score them?

After all the hype and excitement, Howley never threw Giles onto the pitch, despite Wales lacking the ability to score.

Coaches were out thought

In multiple areas over the pitch Wales were beaten tactically by Japan, and Japan's coaching team. Primarily at the breakdown, it was a consistent facet of the game that Japan would have literally no players in a ruck, while Wales would have three or four. Japan knew they wouldn't be able to compete at the breakdown consistently so chose to flood the field with defensive numbers, and it worked.

Rob Howley is under pressure.

Wales forwards were mobbed consistently by two or three Japan defenders, and the backline struggled to find holes. 

However when they saw an isolated runner, Japan were prepared to pile in and force a turnover, which was the exact kind of ball they thrived off. It was a tactical masterclass, compared to Wales who just seemed that the win would be a formality and no real system was put in place. The attack was out of ideas from the off, resorting to a crash ball game which never sucked in defenders like it needed to. Which then lead to players trying to over play the ball, and gave Japan two interception tries which kept them in the game. 

To be honest this is Wales' biggest issue at the minute, the commitment from the players is back, but they look totally without an identity, they don't know what their game plan is anymore and they looked almost scared to try something. There are going to be issues with a change in style, especially such a radical change that Wales are attempting, the Welsh public is patient if they're trying to play exciting rugby. What is killing the passion of fans is this undetermined game style which just leaves everyone bored and nervous.

South Africa are coming

South Africa are no longer the feared beast they used to be, their pack isn't quite the dominant force it used to be, the retirement of key backline players has seen a drop in confidence, and the selection criteria imposed by the Union are choking head coach Coetzee. But make no mistake they are still an incredibly tough opponent to face and Wales are going to have to be at their best to get the third win they crave this Autumn. The Springboks are going to be especially up for the game in Cardiff after their historic loss in Italy last weekend.

Italy were superb against South Africa, Wales will need to match it.

Speaking of that game, having watched the highlights, Italy are a tough team who if they'd played Wales last weekend would have won. Tough to crack in defence, effective driving maul, and half backs who are confident and playing with pace. Wales would do well to take a note out of Conor O'Shea's tactical book, come Saturday.

To beat the South African's there's a few things Wales need to tighten up. Firstly don't throw unnecessary passes, and give the opposition chance to steal an interception try. It's become an alarming regularity as Welsh players panic and try to over play, they just need to calm down and trust in recycling the ball. Secondly they need to play at pace, South Africa are a team renowned for their strength and size, not their speed around the park (bar the obvious Habana exception). Wales are not going to win purely on a contest of strength, they need to pull the South Africans every which was with fast ball and fast feet. If Wales can get their backline confident in taking the ball at pace and executing passing & decision making on the gainline, South Africa will not be able to keep up. I'd like to see the return of the 2-4-2 system that New Zealand have popularised and Wales used so effectively last summer. It allows Wales to play with width - and spread the ball quickly - without fear that they won't have the support at a breakdown.

Lastly Howley has to get his selection right, and his substitutions working effectively. Subtitutes are there to change a game, offer something different, and give you the edge you need over the opposition as the game reaches the climax. Howley needs to have confidence in his bench to have an impact and make a difference. Bring Sam Davies on earlier so he has time to make an impact, use Ken Owens to bring intensity to the hard carries later on, etc. Below is the team I'd select to play South Africa

Wales Team v South Africa

15 - Liam Williams

14 - Leigh Halfpenny

13 - Jonathan Davies

12 - Scott Williams

11 - George North

10 - Dan Biggar

9 - Gareth Davies

1 - Gethin Jenkins

2 - Scott Baldwin

3 - Tomas Francis

4 - Luke Charteris

5 - Alun Wyn Jones

6 - Sam Warburton

7 - Justin Tipuric

8 - Ross Moriarty

16 - Ken Owens

17 - Nicky Smith

18 - Samson Lee

19 - Cory Hill

20 - Talupe Faletau

21 - Lloyd Williams

22 - Sam Davies

23 - Jamie Roberts

Is Davies ready to start?

By and large there no selection surprises in this team, it's practically the team that played Argentina two weeks ago. As discussed Halfpenny remains on the wing where he can do real damage, Liam Williams stays at fullback to offer counter-attacking opportunity. Scott Williams returns to inside centre to give Wales a more expansive fluid style of play, far more likely to step a player than try and run through them. Biggar returns to the fly-half shirt, because Wales need a seasoned campaigner who will allow Wales to play in the right places, put Wales into places where they can put South Africa under pressure and control the game. Gareth Davies returns but really needs to showcase his ability at getting Wales playing with tempo.

Scott Baldwin played so well against Japan he returns, especially for his lineout ability. Tomas Francis was an exceptional scrummager against the fearsome Argentina and get a chance to take on "The Beast". Charteris' lineout prowess and maul defence will be critical against South Africa, although their driving maul isn't quite the weapon it was anymore. Warburton and Tipuric played well against Argentina, Tipuric especially needs to show up in the wide channels and break the play. 

Faletau is back to fitness, and could return this weekend.

The bench will be key. Nicky Smith and Ken Owens offering dyanimc ball carrying later in the game to keep the intensity and allow Wales some go forward. Faletau returns to the bench after a solid performance for Bath last Friday, and his quality is too good to leave out, but not quite fit enough to start yet. Sam Davies is the second best fly-half in Wales and simply has to be on the bench, and as mentioned should be given time to settle into the game and exert himself. His kicking skills could play a big role at the end of the game if Wales are trying to close the game out. Jamie Roberts acts as cover, and a low risk strategy as the game closes when Wales need to maintain possession.

Wales knocked out by Wallabies, and the Pumas are on the prowl

Australia turned up to the Principality Stadium, Wales took another hour to arrive. It was a dismal performance both defensively and offensively from Wales. Giving possession away far too easily, lack of conviction in the attack, and total disorganisation in defence.

I'm not going to go over the events of the match, but in a nutshell Australia should have been home and dry before half time and only a little bit of rustiness prevented Wales from being beaten to a pulp by the break. The second half was a more even affair, but Wales still rarely threatened the Australian defence, and only scored a try from a piece of magic from Scott Williams. So where did it go wrong for Wales, and what positives can be taken?

Wales well resoundingly beaten by Australia last weekend. (Huw Evans Photography)

Positives

We'll look at the positives first, and in reality it was the performance of a few players that is all the Welsh public is taking from the game. Three players in particular had note worthy performances. Justin Tipuric was handled expertly by the Australians in terms of the breakdown battle, although that isn't anything that was strictly his fault. He really came to the fore when Wales opened up a little bit, his handling skills, support lines and comfort outside clearly showed how important he could be to Wales should they adopt an expansive game plan.

Moriarty was a shining light for Wales.

From the bench Hallam Amos brought a level of excitement and enterprise to a Wales team that had been ponderous and predictable all game. In some newspapers his lack of pace has been a subject of much debate, saying he would have scored a try near the end if he'd be a little quicker. Which I feel it wholly unfair, given it was a stupendous covering tackle from Nick Phipps. Hallam Amos brings a youthful exuberance, intelligence and ingenuity to a backline that has become worryingly predictable in recent months. Sadly he has been ruled out of the remainder of the Autumn Internationals, which
means the other wingers will have to step up.

Wales' best player on the day was Ross Moriarty, the Gloucester player continued his level of performance from the summer tour, filling in for the injured Talupe Faletau. Moriarty provided Wales with front foot ball every time he took the ball on, thundering into tackles to stop Australian momentum at key times. In fact at times he looked like the only Welsh player who wanted to be there, utterly dedicated in covering the pitch and having as much impact as he could. Based on his last few performances in the red shirt, I would argue for his inclusion to a new look Welsh back-row: alongside Tipuric and Faletau.

Negatives

Now for the hard part. the areas that went badly wrong for Howley and his players.

Set Piece

Wales struggled to compete at the lineout, unable to secure they're own ball on multiple occasions and giving Australia an armchair ride in attack. For the first half an hour Wales were unable to have any sort of meaningful possession or dictate where the game was played, and it was the leading cause of Australia's dominant first half.

Owens struggled at the lineout.

It isn't the first time this has been an issue for Wales, they struggled in New Zealand too. In fact the coaching staff seem to have a selection dilema when it comes to hooker in this position. The current first choice - Ken Owens - has been struggling for a while to hit his jumpers and secure clean ball for the half backs, but is a brilliant player around the park with effective carries and a neat pair of hands too. The other option is Scott Baldwin, the Osprey, much more your classic hooker. Effective in the tight carries but not spectacular, and has good percentages at the set piece. Howley - and forwards coach McBride - may have a longer term decision to make if problems persist at the set piece.

The scrum too was inconsistent, at times it looked like a real weapon again, at others times it fell apart in impressive style. Samson Lee is starting to look like the sort of player that looked like the long term replacement of Adam Jones again.

Unorganised Defence

Probably the most obvious thing through the game was the total disarray in which Wales took to the field. Beaten easily again and again by the masterful Bernard Foley. We will give credit to Australia here for being simply amazing with their ruck play, their decoy runners, and their offloading. However they weren't given much of a challenge at times.

Australia sliced open Wales with regularity.

The Welsh backline struggled to get organised against the onslaught that Australia presented, with the centre's Roberts & Williams totally out of sync. One would rush up and the other would sit back, and when the man did rush up, he wouldn't make the hit to kill the move and Foley or others would simply pass them out of the game. It didn't get much better with the wingers who were both easily beaten with cross field kicks, which got Australia behind the gainline and the Welsh defence scrambling even more so.

You can maybe excuse the defence against Australia in open play, due to their incredible play speed. Yet Wales also looked lethargic from first phase, with a hooker being used as the primary line leader from lineouts Australia always had the advantage with speed. This lack of pace seemed present across the entire Wales team, with all of them looking exhausted and beaten from the off as Wallabies cruised past them with what looked like ease. 

Shaun Edwards said a few days afterwards that they had only had one defensive training session as a starting team all week, which is shocking for a team that has long pride itself on it's ability to keep teams out. What didn't help was the loss of Jonathan Davies a few hours before kick off, a play who has been crucial to Wales' defence for years, but the fact that this wasn't prepared for is worrying.

Collision Battle

Australia consistently beat Wales at willing
the tackle collision, 

This stemmed from the defensive line speed issues previously mentioned. Australia consistently won the contact, getting their ball carriers over the gainline with regularity, which allowed them to win the ruck quickly and attack again.

The Australian players just seemed to want it more, barrelling into the collisions and relishing the chance to knock the opposition players back. It was aided by the support play from other forwards aiding their team mate and driving him into the contact. The support work also allowed the players to "tip on" the ball just before the point of contact putting a teammate onto a weak shoulder which is much easier to make ground against. 

Compare that to Wales who would often be sent into the contact without support, too far from the ruck for a quick clear out, and with no one to offload the ball to either. Australians were able to double team the Welsh ball carriers as it was clear who would be taking the ball in. Wales played much more intelligently in the summer, and you wonder where that went.

Attack System

Where oh where did the expansive, Kiwi-esque, style of play that was so exciting and effective in the summer? Wales were adventurous, using their forwards as link players to allow their backs to attack with width and pace. Their wingers roaming looking to get involved in the centre field and use their pace, footwork and power to have a real impact. Biggar and Webb controlling influences which were starting to get the attack to tick in a way it hadn't in a while.

Compare that to Wales in Cardiff. One up runners. Hands down the line passing with no pace. Boring kick chase plan that has proven ineffective against the South Hemisphere for years. Wingers hiding on the wings and trying to run over players rather than burst through holes. I don't know where to place the blame, Biggar attempted to play the "summer style" at the start, but the forwards seemed oblivious to his positioning behind them. So he reverted to "Warrenball" kick chase - which Wales were comprehensively beaten at - and runners trying to out muscle the opposition. 

You can't blame players to falling back to old methods when the new ones weren't working, the problem was the old style looked rusty, old and lethargic. It allowed Australia all the time in the world to organise their defence and wait to pounce to turn the ball over. Wales need to choose a style and stick with it through thick and thin over the next few months until the players know it inside out.

In New Zealand, North was used brilliantly, he barely saw the ball against Australia.

With all of these in mind, what do Wales need to work on before running out against Argentina on Saturday? There are three focal points that I feel need to be fixed first, the lineout is an issue but Ken Owens should hold on to the jersey for now.

Forwards actually using the ball

All of Wales' forwards need to
look for the pass.

The All Black style of play demands that all players be capable of passing the ball, seeing space, and making the right decisions in attack. Wales are apparently trying to emulate this style of play, albeit with their own flavour. When they were down in New Zealand, Wales seemed to be getting the hang of this sort of system. Their tight forwards playing with a bit extra width from the breakdown, with the fly half in behind offering the chance to use the backs.

This system forces the opposition to consider multiple options. The pod of forwards - usually three or four - has the option to crash it up, tip it on to a support player just before contact, or pull it behind them to the fly half on an arcing run. Against Australia these options were rarely used and it meant Wales were very easy to defend. Compare that to Australia - utilising a similar system - who varied their options continually which meant the Welsh defence were never able to predict the play.

If the Welsh forwards start thinking about the support around them, and shifting the point of contact, then Wales will stand a better chance of finding gaps and getting over the gainline.

Back-line needs to be flatter

For a long time Dan Biggar has been accused of not taking the ball to the line and threatening the opposition defence. While it may be true that it is not Biggar's natural game, he has developed in recent years to attack with the ball and play flatter. He did this on multiple occasions against Australia, however his backline were still sitting deep behind him, which meant he'd still have to pass the ball back behind the gainline and any threat he posed was pointless.

If the system mentioned previously, the Welsh backline need to be going at full speed when they get the ball in their hands, receiving the ball flat and looking to break through holes. You're never going to find a gap to burst through if you're standing deep, it gives the defence too much time to readjust and close you down. Wales have shown their capable of playing flat and fast, in games against England and the Kiwi's they really put defences under pressure when they used the ball at speed.

Defence

The return of Jonathan Davies could help Wales in defence.

Kind of an obvious one, and not exactly one I know how to solve precisely. Firstly they need to sort out communication and the speed at which they set up, far too often they were caught out by Australia's blitzkrieg assault. This was largely down to Wales' inability to slow down the breakdown pace, the Welsh forwards unable to get over the ball or stop the Australian players going over the gain-line. Wales will be hoping to compete more at ruck time against Argentina and allow their defensive line to set up and read the opposition attack.

I'm sure that Wales will be having more than one defensive training session this week, as Shaun Edwards looks to return his team to their impenetrable best. The centre partnership especially will be crucial to stemming the tide, making sure they link up together and don't leave gaps for the adventurous Argentinians to burst through.

They'll also have to look at defending the cross-field kick, both North and Cuthbert struggled against this last weekend and it gave Australia really go forward. Usually when a defence ends up forcing an opposition to kick the ball away it's a win, but Australia looked to use it as a way to beat the defence early on. If the wingers sit a little deeper behind the rushing defence then the kicks should be well covered. Although if the wingers aren't joining the out-to-in blitz that puts a lot of pressure on the outside centre to completely shut off the wide options.

Wales Team vs Argentina (12/11/16)

15 - L Halfpenny

14 - L Williams

13 - J Davies

12 - S Williams

11 - G North

10 - D Biggar

9 - G Davies

1 - G Jenkins (C)

2 - K Owens

3 - T Francis

4 - L Charteris

5 - AW Jones

6 - S Warburton

7 - J Tipuric

8 - R Moriarty

16 - S Baldwin

17 - N Smith

18 - S Lee

19 - C Hill

20 - J King

21 - L Williams

22 - G Anscombe

23 - J Roberts

Williams has been Wales' best player for a while.

It certainly is a eyebrow raising team selection by Rob Howley, whether it is a knee-jerk reaction to
the performance against Australia, or the beginnings of a new look Wales will probably depend on the performance this weekend. The return of Liam Williams will greatly aid the kick defence issues mentioned, as well as providing Wales with a real ambitious threat going forward. Jonathan Davies is the best outside centre Wales have for defending their way and his loss was greatly noticed against Australia. Scott Williams starts alongside his Scarlets team mate, very different from Jamie Roberts, more capable of making a break or putting in an intelligent kick. This is his chance to stake his claim for the 12 jersey long term. I am a little surprised to see Biggar continue - Howley saying it was hard to judge him with limited possession - I thought maybe Anscombe or Sam Davies would be given a chance, Biggar really needs to showcase his ability to play with width and pace. Gareth Davies adds another dimension to Wales' attack, not quite the tactical influence that Rhys Webb is, but a dangerous runner with the ball.

In the pack there is the return of the fated Warburton/Tipuric combination that many Wales fans long for. Warburton has played most of the season at blind-side flanker so he should be more accustomed to the role. The return of Warburton should also aid Wales in slowing down ruck ball with another capable jackler in the team. It's great to see Tipuric and Moriarty continue as they performed

The return of Jones will certainly up Wales' effort.

fantastically against Australia even when on the back foot. The biggest asset for Wales is the return of Alun Wyn Jones from compassionate leave, he was the sort of leader that Wales needed last week to drag them back into the game. His leadership and determination have been a core value to Wales in recent years and his absence is always noticed. Also mention for Tomas Francis replacing Samson Lee, possibly after Francis was part of a dominant scrum near the end of the game, and Argentina will be coming with a powerful set piece.

The bench is set up to cover all positions as best as possible. Cory Hill will win his second cap from the bench after both Bradley Davies and Jake Ball failed fitness tests. James King can slot in anywhere in the back row, and provides athletic defence should he come on. Gareth Anscombe replaces Sam Davies this week, a small surprise considering how well Davies seemed to do with his brief cameo. Jamie Roberts starts from the bench for the first time in over 70 caps, his experience could be crucial late on, but it will be interesting how he adapts to this new role.

How to beat the All Blacks - by Ireland

History was made in Chicago this week, initially by the Cubs finally winning the World Series. However a few days later Ireland did something even more unexpected and beat the team that seemed simply unbeatable over the summer. So how did Ireland achieve something no one else has come close to doing in over a year? There were five areas which gave them the result craved for 111 years, and the Lions coaches will do well to study this match extensively before next summer.

Kicking

Murray's kicking was exemplary.

Quite simply it was a masterclass. Nothing else. Jonny Sexton and Connor Murray were executing the correct kicks at the exact right time, with the perfect precision. The half backs made their cases for the Lions shirts and look to be almost confirmed for the plane now. Murray especially was exceptional with his pressure releasing kicks from Ireland's 22 achieving brilliant distance while simultaneously going out of play and denying the chance for the All Blacks to counter attack. Sexton aided his brilliant scrum half, with perfectly weighted kicks to chase, and genius kicks in behind which allowed Irish chasers to put pressure on the All Black back three.

They weren't the only ones seeming to have a golden day with the boot, Zebo, Trimble, and Rob Kearney all had superb days at fielding and returning kicks. Trimble made one brilliant clearance kick after a turnover in their 22, and Zebo made the ultimately crucial kick that lead to Henshaw's try which sealed the game for the men in green. When you've got not one, not even two players, but an entire backline capable of putting in intelligent and well executed kicks you know you can put teams under immense pressure.

The Kiwi's deployed their two big running wingers hoping that they'd be able to run over the smaller Irish backline, but that exposed them to Ireland's exceptional kicking game. I will not be surprised to see Israel Dagg returned to the starting lineup in an effort to counter-act Ireland's kicking game, come the return fixture in Dublin on the 19th of November. 

Defence

To a man the Irish were brilliant in defence, utterly committed, brilliantly organised and exemplary in their use of the choke tackle to kill off any New Zealand attacking speed. Apart from two very well cut lines by Dane Coles and Barrett (the younger) during the second half, and one well executed move in the first half, New Zealand rarely threatened to penetrate the green wall. 

Ireland's choke tackle utterly destroyed any All Black
breakdown speed.

It was a stark contrast to the apathetic defensive performance delivered by Wales a few hours earlier. Each Irish player was truly focused and dedicated to the suffocating defensive pressure. The line speed was brilliant, while still maintaining solidity and denying any holes for the Kiwi attackers to
exploit. This meant that often the spread out All Black attack often ended up isolated during the initial stages of the collision, with often two or more Irish defenders getting in under the ball and wrapping up the ball carrier. 

The All Black's are famed for their incredible ruck speed allowing them to send wave after wave of attack until the opposition defence is stretched to breaking. The Irish knew they didn't posses the traditional "openside" skills to slow down rucks, but what they did have was a well drilled ability of the choke tackle. New Zealand players often end up hitting the tackle on their own, but the speed of their support means they don't get isolated. But when the defence isn't looking to chop you to the ground and instead wrap you up, you need your support directly on your shoulder to make sure you get to ground. 

It was genius from Andy Farrell as defence coach to realise this area to exploit.

Replacements

So often teams stand up to the All Blacks for 50-60 minutes, and then collapse as the benches come into play. New Zealand have got a talent pool other nations can only dream of, as such they can maintain the quality on the pitch with fresh legs and put teams to the sword. The Irish substitutes however continued the sheer effort, and the skill level, of their counterparts as they came on.

Special mentions go to Josh van der Flier who probably came on much sooner than he expected - due to a nasty injury to Jordi Murphy - and became a real nuisance at the breakdown. And Joey Carbery who had the unenvious task of trying to match the quality of Jonny Sexton with still 20 minutes on the clock. He did so splendidly, continuing the precise kicking and assured presence of his Leinster team mate. But to a man ever member of the Irish bench knew their responsibility as they came on, to maintain the intensity and ferocity that their team mates had been showcasing from the start. And they didn't disappoint.

When you can rely on your fresh legs to make a real impact and slot seamlessly into the systems and the speed of the game, you are always going to be a top level threat, because you can maintain intensity for the full 80 minutes. Something a lot of teams struggle to do - despite the amount of conditioning work done in the Northern Hemisphere.

Joey Carbery was a calm and assured presence when he came on for Sexton, exactly what Ireland needed at the time.

The Set Piece

Over the last few years - under Steve Hansen - the All Blacks have become famed for their set piece efficiency as well as their attacking class. With the likes of Kieran Read, Sam Whitelock and Brodie Retallick being lethal at the lineout in securing quick ball for themselves and disrupting the opposition. So too their scrum has become a source of stable possession from which Read and his scrum half can cause havoc with opposition defence. 

Retallick was missed.

For the game in Chicago the Kiwi's were without both Retallick and Whitelock and it showed. With Kaino - a blindside - having to play lock they really struggled to win their own ball, and Ireland had an easy ride at securing their own lineout possession. Ireland scored two tries thanks to driving maul successes and it played a massive role in their eventual victory.

The key thing Ireland did though was not just securing their own ball, but actually causing chaos with New Zealand's lineouts. New Zealand lost their first two lineouts, and very rarely had clean possession the rest of the match. The likes of Devin Toner and Jamie Heaslip caused real problems in the air for Dane Coles. As such the Kiwi's couldn't attack with their usual speed and shift the point of collision beyond the gain line, something that is fundamental to the way they play.

Willingness to Attack

For the first few years under Joe Schmidt it was rare to see Ireland score tries, they were hugely successful but it came about largely from an superb kicking game putting the opposition under pressure and winning kickable penalties, while denying their opponent any field position. While the threads of that game plan were still present with their kicking strategy, Ireland threw the points plan out the window and went out to score tries.

It's a long touted caveat on how to beat the All Blacks, score tries. Ireland heard the call and did it their way. They got into the right field positions, via their kicking game, and then made the pressure count. Driving maul, cut back angles, forward carries, simple effective rugby. But they also looked to play from their own half when they saw the chance, Jonny Sexton looping his players in classic style to spread the play. It was brilliant simple, well trained, execution of skills. Playing with confidence and knowing how they were meant to play meant that they knew and understood how there were likely to make gains and score the tries they needed.

Joe Schmidt out thought Steve Hansen in Chicago, his tactics and the way they combined was simply world class.

Each of these things were crucial to Ireland's dramatic victory against New Zealand, and it is a testament to the coaching staff at how all of them combined together to create a complete performance that no team would have been capable of beating. The lineout disruption meant that the defence could pressure in the first phase. The kicking game meant that the All Black were under pressure constantly, and Ireland could attack in the right areas. The replacements could play the game as good as the starting players and the pressure remained. Everything game together to produce of the best performances I've seen in a long time.

The blue-print has been written, the real test if it works again in Dublin, if so the Lions know how they're going to need to play come June.