Wales Autumn Review

Three wins from four, beaten two Rugby Championship teams, and up to 5th in the world. Based on those number Wales seemed to have had a successful Autumn series. However there remains an air of gloom around Welsh rugby over the quality of the performances which were on show. After a largely successful tour of New Zealand the Autumn was supposed to give Wales a chance to kick on and compete consistently. Instead after four games and an aggregate score of 92-95 there are more questions for Howley to ponder before they turn up in Rome at the start of the 6 Nations. So what are the talking points from the Autumn?

Wales completed a 75% Autumn Series by defeating South Africa, but there is more work to be done.

Breakdown Speed

Wales miss Webb's organisation when he's not playing.

This for me has been the biggest eye opener in terms of just how far off the leaders Wales are. The coaches constantly aspire to be at the same level at the All Blacks, with their intensity, their speed of thought, and execution. However for all of their prolific handling skills and decision making, the thing that makes the Kiwi's so dangerous is their ability to win the ruck and get the ball away faster than anyone else. Other teams out there are starting to get this consistent speed too, England and Australia are playing with pace and putting defences on the back foot with their intensity. 

Wales can talk all they like about playing an expansive game which utilises their dangerous backs, but you can't do this when your scrum half is leaving the ball at the breakdown for crucial seconds. It gives time for defences to get set and rush up to put the attackers under pressure. Wales' half-backs at time still look like they're stuck in the past, waiting for their attacking systems to be set up before
they try to use the ball. Yes you need some structure in place before you pass the ball away, but it simply takes too long currently for Wales. I'm sure it will begin to become more fluid and dynamic as they get used to the system, but it is a worry that it is taking them so long to get there. Especially when teams like England, Ireland and France are changing their game so quickly.

Wales need a scrum half who gets his forwards organised ahead of the next breakdown, if they're not going to organise themselves, and a fly-half who has got his back-line ready to unleash when the ball is available.

Decision Making

This is the other main issue in Wales' attack, we could also discuss handling ability and agility but that's neither here nor there. When Wales are going forward ball in hand and looking to break the line, consistently their ability to pick the hole or utilise an overlap let them down. Against South Africa there was a moment when Jonathan Davies made a superb break arcing around a second row and

Davies was responsible for one missed opportunity
(Huw Evans Photography)

getting in behind, which was superb. However he had two men outside him who could have broken the line themselves, at which point there would have been support and space to potentially score a try. 

It was hoped that the Kiwi-raised Anscombe would offer the sort of heads up, spot the gap, brilliance that Wales have wanted for a while. Instead because of the agonisingly slow ball that was presented to him against Japan, he was trying to open up a well organised and high pressing defence, something even the likes of Carter, Barrett and Foley would have problems with. Decision making, the ability to find holes, is made that much easier for a player when they are on the front foot against a retreating defence. 

So far we've only discussed the decision making of the player with the ball, but it's a two way street, the players around him need to be spotting the options and communicating with him. Players need to start taking a responsibility to run lines with intent, take the ball on the gain line aimed at weak shoulders. Additionally they should be thinking about support lines, too often when a Welsh player makes a break his team mates are having to react to it and catch up, leaving him without the ability to keep the ball alive. Compare to New Zealand, Australia and Argentina who expect their team mate to make a break and are looking to follow them through the hole to supply passing options.

Wales will only get better at assessing the options, picking the right runner, and providing support lines through practice under pressure, but they ideally need to be doing this with pace and intensity which forces defenders to retreat and give them the extra second to make a decision.

Defence is on the mend

Edwards under pressure.

I think it's safe to say no one was wanting to be Shaun Edwards for the last 9 months. Wales had been conceding tries at will, with usually dependable players missing tackles with regularity, and the infamous blitz defence appearing to have vanished into thin air. New Zealand, England and Australia had cruised through the red shirts to score on average five tries a game. However after the truly nightmarish Australia game things improved for Edwards and his defenders.

Argentina were suffocated with superb use of the "choke tackle", limiting an exciting side to two
opportunist tries is no mean feat. Against Japan the defence was largely untested, caught out once, and the other two tries came from interceptions. Then the Springboks rocked up - and while the South Africans made plenty of handling errors - the Welsh defence was solid throughout, doing what was expected denying any sort of realistic try scoring opportunity except for the one driving maul. 

It is a significant improvement, but it came from a position of travesty, there is still plenty of work to do before facing the simple - but intelligent - attack of England, the precise brilliance of Ireland, and the offloading flamboyance of a resurgent France. The return of Talupe Faletau will be important as he is consistently a top tackler for Wales, but the real problem area is on the wings, North and Cuthbert were both beaten far too easily far too often by passes and kicks. Work to be done, but encouraging signs.

Time for fresh faces?

Cuthbert lacking in
confidence.

Having mentioned the problems at wing, you wonder whether for some players their time in the red shirt has come to and end, even if temporarily. Alex Cuthbert takes a lot of flak from the public, primarily over his defence, and it has been an issue throughout his career. This was often overlooked because of his sheer try scoring ability, however in the last 12 months the tries have tried up and Cuthbert looks utterly defeated. Surely it is time for the coaches to drop him, for the 6 Nations, allow him to play week-in week-out for the Blues and rediscover the lethal nature that made him a try scoring Lion.

Other players are under similar threat from the axe, the previously mentioned Anscombe who failed to get a Welsh attack going against an inexperienced Japan, has been over taken by Sam Davies as second choice fly half. Anscombe still offers the ability to play at fullback as well so his time in the training squad may not be over yet. His Blues half-back partner, Lloyd Williams, suffered a similar frustration against Japan and I wouldn't be surprised if Howley and co. start looking at the likes of Aled Davies and Tomos Williams ahead of the 6 Nations as 3rd choice scrum half. 

There are options all over the park should Howley want to change things up in his squad. Tyler Morgan is back playing for the Dragons and offers a bit more pace at outside centre than Jonathan Davies. Hallam Amos played well against Australia before getting injured and could force his way in at wing. James Davies - the Olympic silver medallist - is playing brilliantly in the Scarlets backrow, Sam Parry ousted Scott Baldwin at the Ospreys earlier in the season, and Rory Thornton has been playing expertly in the absence of Alun Wyn for the Swansea based region. I'm not suggesting a total rip up of the Wales team, but it is nice to know the options are there should a change be needed.

Many Wales fans would like to see the exciting - 7's trained - James Davies in the Wales squad.

Team Selection

With plenty of players coming into rich veins of form, returning from injury or just continuing to play at levels that people have come to expect, the Welsh starting team could being to look very different to the line up that became so predictable under Gatland. 

Is it time up for Roberts in Wales?

Jamie Roberts no longer looks necessary, his gainline physicality isn't required as much as it used to be, and his defence has let him down in his previous outings. Scott Williams has come in and done a dependable - if unspectacular - job in his place, and provides a little bit more pace and subtlety to the Welsh attack. Tight-head now is a real competition for the shirt, Samson Lee hailed as the next great tight-head doesn't look like he did before his awful ankle injury, meanwhile Tomos Francis has produced two excellent scrummaging displays against arguably the two most feared scrums in the world - Argentina and South Africa. Both could add to their game, but it will be interesting going forwards who gets the 3 jersey. The hookers too are both playing at a similar level and each provides their own expertise to the position.

The biggest dilemma however comes in the backrow. Ever since the 2011 World Cup - assuming everyone was fit - you could name the Welsh backrow without a moments thought. Lydiate, Warburton and Faletau have ruled the shirts, and their balance so often the given reason behind their selection. However based on performances this autumn this selection no longer looks like the way forward. Justin Tipuric possesses the handling ability and decision making that Wales coaching staff want from all their forwards, but he combines this with consistently high tackle stats and an ability to win turnovers in the tackle. Even when Warburton was available he was selected at blind-side to accommodate the Osprey, is this the future for the Wales 7 shirt? 

Moriarty was Wales' player of the series.

The real big name from the autumn however is Ross Moriarty, who has been without a doubt Wales' best performer all series. He gives Wales a seriously powerful ball carrier, something they haven't really had in their pack for a long time, he gets Wales over the gainline consistently often taking two defenders with him. He is quick too, more than capable of appearing in the wide channels and making yards in space. Something Wales will want from their backrow if they want to emulate the Kiwi 2-4-2 style. But more than all of this his defence is utterly majestic at times; he makes the boring tackles that every blindside flanker and No. 8 is required to make, but he also makes the big game changing hits that can stop an attacking move dead in its tracks and give his teammates chance to organise. After the last four games if Howley has learnt anything, it is that Moriarty has to be on the field as much as possible. 

Captaincy

Warburton no longer
captain?

Seeing as I've mentioned that both Tipuric and Moriarty should be selected for Wales, and Faletau is - for me - the second best No.8 in the world, it means that Warburton is no longer on the field. Which means that the captaincy is open for discussion.

For me this has been a key issue for Wales over the past few seasons with Warburton being captain, and an excellent one at that, it's meant that Wales haven't been able to select Tipuric despite the form of the former Trebanos player. Warburton is also one of those players that seems plagued by injuries and never able to string a consistent number of performances together, which meant you never felt sure if he was at his best for Wales. If you take the captaincy away from him, he suddenly has to right for his position just as hard as everyone else and it could see a resurgence of the Blues man. 

So the question is who should take the metaphorical armband in his place. There are two names that jump out at you. Gethin Jenkins, who led Wales to two victories in the autumn, is the most capped Welsh player of all time, and closing in on the overall record. A superb player who is seemingly getting better with age, a nusiance at the breakdown and possessing a deft subtlety that some centres don't have. He has never really held the armband for an extended period, instead usually as a stop gap for when Warburton has been relieved on his return from injury. 

For me though the selection for Wales captain is an obvious one, Alun Wyn Jones. He is nothing short of an ever present inspiration for the players around him, able to grab the game by the scruff of the neck and drag Wales forwards with him. He wins turnovers, makes crucial tackles, charges head long into collisions, all while exuding a calm - if terrifying - visage. He has captained the Lions in the absence of Warburton, has been on two tours and looks odds on to take part in a third next summer. Wales are a different team when the lawyer is away, he is the first name on the team sheet for Wales, and that is the most important thing a captain must possess.

Alun Wyn Jones is a born leader who lifts everyone around him, with Warburton under pressure,
should he be made captain?

So that is what I've learnt from the Autumn Series for Wales, there is cause of optimism, but there is a long way to go if the targeted "top 4" position is to be achieved. Wales are at best the third best team in the 6 Nations at the moment, but could easily lose to everyone this year. It's time to look to the future and select the players on form, past performances mean nothing anymore.