Pedestrian Wales edge Slick Japan

The age old adage is "A win's a win". In that case Wales should be celebrating an Autumn Series which has provided two victories out of three so far. This couldn't be further from the truth. After the atrocity against Australia was some-what redeemed by a gritty - if nervous - display against Argentina, Howley and his team took about seven steps backwards. What were the key points this time for Wales, after they struggled to put a rookie Japan side away?

Japan almost pulled of another victory against the odds, Wales were poor but why? (Huw Evans Photography)

Halfpenny and Liam Williams

Halfpenny looked more natural at wing.

Let's start with the positives. For months, after the performances of Liam Williams for club and country, Welsh fans have been hoping to see him installed in the Wales 15 berth on a regular basis. This of course meant moving the stalwart Leigh Halfpenny elsewhere in the backline. Howley experimented with this set up against Japan, and by and large it worked pretty well. Bar one moment of ill discipline from Williams at fullback it looked like the best position for both the players. Liam Williams was king under the high ball mostly, and constantly looking to offer a counter attacking
threat, putting Wales back on the front foot after the opponents kicked the ball way. While Halfpenny seemed much more instinctive and relaxed out on the wing, it looked like the pressure was off. He made three line breaks, using strength and acceleration to burst onto passes from team mates, he looked dangerous and for someone who hasn't played wing in years looked more capable than his counterpart Cuthbert - who will be discussed later.

In terms of attacking threat Wales didn't offer much outside of these two for most of the game, and I think Howley has to stick with the system for South Africa - arguably a sterner test - because Wales need a winger with confidence and a fullback who can spark something to get them on the front foot. These are a precious commodity for those in the red shirt at the minute, and every little bit will count if Wales want that win.

Front Row

Another positive story here for the "second string" players. Okay that's a little harsh to Baldwin and Lee who 12 months ago were sure on starters for their jerseys, but none the less if we assume they were told to go out there and earn the shirts for the South Africa game none of them did they're name any harm. Samson Lee was the least noticed of the three, but provided the dominant scrum platform that was expected of him at tight head.

Baldwin was superb all day against Japan.

Meanwhile Scott Baldwin and Nicky Smith were appearing all over the pitch and producing yards that at times they had no right to. The the Osprey players gave Wales some great moment at times using footwork and ball handling to slip past wanna-be tacklers. It was the sort of play that has been lacking from Welsh forwards a bit so far this Autumn, the heads up rugby that the likes of New Zealand, Australia and England are all expecting - and getting - from their pack. It is a crucial requirement in the modern expansive fast paced game, and if the other Welsh forwards don't follow suit, they could continue to fall further behind.

It's unlikely that Nicky Smith is going to oust the legend that is Gethin Jenkins come this weekend, but it is comfort to know that there is an able replacement on the bench on match day. Scott Baldwin on the other hand may have just squeezed himself back in, after backing up his consistent lineout displays with an effective showing in open play.

Half-backs struggle

Anscombe failed to shine against Japan.

For Gareth Anscombe it was viewed as a chance for him to stake a claim for the Wales 10 shirt, showcase he is the right man to play an expansive and expressive style of rugby. Disappointingly it did not go to plan for him, nor his Blues halfback partner Lloyd Williams. And there can be no complains about "struggling behind a beaten pack" because the Welsh forwards had pretty much complete control over the set piece and breakdown.

Anscombe was supposed to offer an attacking threat, taking the ball to the line, and picking holes in the defence with a range of passing and intelligent kicks. To be honest we saw very little of this, I don't
remember one linebreak stemming from an action of Anscombe, and in terms of the little chips and grubbers that he had been using all season, we saw more from Jonathan Davies. You can maybe argue that Japan intentionally avoided the breakdown and filled the pitch with tacklers, but much more was expected of Anscombe. There were times where he looked bereft of ideas, unsure as to what his options were or how best to dictate the passage of play. The lack of organisation wider out meant Wales offered little in attack, and the ball was just moved down the line - at a ponderous rate.

Lloyd Williams failed to spark anything from scrum half either. The number of times the ball would be available to play at the breakdown and Williams would either still be jogging to the ruck, or he'd stand there and organise runners for 3 seconds was staggering. His box kicking was often too deep for Wales' players to get anywhere near competing for the ball. To be honest it was only a matter of time before he was replaced by Gareth Davies, although Davies didn't up the quality too much. You have to question whether either starting half-back stands much of a chance ever getting back into the starting team after abject performances like that

Wales without speed or tempo

This issue largely stemmed from the time wasting of Lloyd Williams at the breakdown, Wales were far too content on giving Japan the time to set up their defence and try and batter it down with one up runners 5m away from the breakdown. It slowed the whole game down, and made a sell out crowd eerily quiet as they looked for something to get excited by. It is hard to understand why this was such an issue, it's a caveat of top level rugby that the game has to be played with speed, quick breakdowns stop the defence organising and then it becomes easier to score. The All Blacks are the king of this, they refuse to leave the ball waiting at a breakdown, if the scrum half isn't there the ball is played by someone else. Australia are playing with this speed too, England are getting there as well. Wales on the other hand seem stuck in the past, only the scrum half can pass the ball, also everything has to be in perfect set up before we can pass it. 

If it's an issue stemming from players not getting into position fast enough, or not reading the field quickly to prepare the attack, then it's something that has to be worked on in training. Howley was the attack coach when Wales were in New Zealand, and they played with real tempo, forwards were

How much are Wales missing the command and
speed of Webb?

ready quickly and the backline was prepared in behind. Five months later this has disappeared and Wales look slow in their set up, slow to the breakdown, and scared to play with the ball.

This fear spreads further than the organisation at the breakdown, the backline looked hesitant and dull. It's hard not to compare to the likes of France and England, they're back-line is taking the ball at speed and looking to put tacklers under pressure, the passing is crisp and flat allowing the attack to stretch the defence. Wales by comparison were throwing passes on without committing defenders, only running hard when the ball is in their hands. Every pundit in Wales is condemning Wales' slow and frustrating game, but it is mad to think last summer Wales were attacking at 100% and putting the All Blacks under pressure. Are the players lacking in confidence? Are they confused what they're meant to be doing? These are questions that need to be sorted if Wales have any plans of competing in the 6 Nations.

Where were the substitutes?

Wales were rudderless and without spark for almost the entire game, but the naturally talented players remained on the bench, those able to change a game left kicking their heels. Gareth Davies eventually replaced Lloyd Williams to try and increase the tempo. Sam Davies got another 15 minute cameo at the end of the game, and to be honest Wales looked much more comfortable with him at the helm than Gareth Anscombe. Davies was playing with confidence, bringing players onto the ball, trying to make something happen, and directing Wales with kicks into the positions they needed to be. In fact one kick almost gave Cuthbert a try after it put Japan under pressure, if only Cuthbert was on better form, maybe Wales would have put Japan to the sword. Cuthbert is severely lacking in confidence and you question how much longer the coaching staff can defend his actions.

However the two players that perhaps had the real ability to change the fortunes of the match, Ross Moriarty and Keelan Giles, were left frustrated. Morarity has been Wales' stand out player for the first two games, tackling everything he could get his hands on, and punching tank sized holes in defences. He would have been the perfect player to come on and up the intensity of the Welsh pack, and get Wales on the front foot and in control.

Then there's the young Keelan Giles, given a chance to make his test debut and ignored. In a game where Alex Cuthbert was obviously struggling to make things stick, two tries which he would usually have finished went begging, how the coaches didn't bring on the exciting Giles is beyond me. It was the perfect game for Giles, the tries were out there they just needed a classy finisher to score them, and no offence to Japan but the physical challenge wouldn't have been above him. I feel sorry for Giles because he probably thought he could have made an impact, but his time will come. Until then I - along with a lot of Wales - will continue to question the inclusion of Cuthbert, if Howley's justification for selecting him is "he's a finisher" then it's not wonder Wales aren't scoring tries. If there arch-finisher is leaving tries on the field, then who is gonna score them?

After all the hype and excitement, Howley never threw Giles onto the pitch, despite Wales lacking the ability to score.

Coaches were out thought

In multiple areas over the pitch Wales were beaten tactically by Japan, and Japan's coaching team. Primarily at the breakdown, it was a consistent facet of the game that Japan would have literally no players in a ruck, while Wales would have three or four. Japan knew they wouldn't be able to compete at the breakdown consistently so chose to flood the field with defensive numbers, and it worked.

Rob Howley is under pressure.

Wales forwards were mobbed consistently by two or three Japan defenders, and the backline struggled to find holes. 

However when they saw an isolated runner, Japan were prepared to pile in and force a turnover, which was the exact kind of ball they thrived off. It was a tactical masterclass, compared to Wales who just seemed that the win would be a formality and no real system was put in place. The attack was out of ideas from the off, resorting to a crash ball game which never sucked in defenders like it needed to. Which then lead to players trying to over play the ball, and gave Japan two interception tries which kept them in the game. 

To be honest this is Wales' biggest issue at the minute, the commitment from the players is back, but they look totally without an identity, they don't know what their game plan is anymore and they looked almost scared to try something. There are going to be issues with a change in style, especially such a radical change that Wales are attempting, the Welsh public is patient if they're trying to play exciting rugby. What is killing the passion of fans is this undetermined game style which just leaves everyone bored and nervous.

South Africa are coming

South Africa are no longer the feared beast they used to be, their pack isn't quite the dominant force it used to be, the retirement of key backline players has seen a drop in confidence, and the selection criteria imposed by the Union are choking head coach Coetzee. But make no mistake they are still an incredibly tough opponent to face and Wales are going to have to be at their best to get the third win they crave this Autumn. The Springboks are going to be especially up for the game in Cardiff after their historic loss in Italy last weekend.

Italy were superb against South Africa, Wales will need to match it.

Speaking of that game, having watched the highlights, Italy are a tough team who if they'd played Wales last weekend would have won. Tough to crack in defence, effective driving maul, and half backs who are confident and playing with pace. Wales would do well to take a note out of Conor O'Shea's tactical book, come Saturday.

To beat the South African's there's a few things Wales need to tighten up. Firstly don't throw unnecessary passes, and give the opposition chance to steal an interception try. It's become an alarming regularity as Welsh players panic and try to over play, they just need to calm down and trust in recycling the ball. Secondly they need to play at pace, South Africa are a team renowned for their strength and size, not their speed around the park (bar the obvious Habana exception). Wales are not going to win purely on a contest of strength, they need to pull the South Africans every which was with fast ball and fast feet. If Wales can get their backline confident in taking the ball at pace and executing passing & decision making on the gainline, South Africa will not be able to keep up. I'd like to see the return of the 2-4-2 system that New Zealand have popularised and Wales used so effectively last summer. It allows Wales to play with width - and spread the ball quickly - without fear that they won't have the support at a breakdown.

Lastly Howley has to get his selection right, and his substitutions working effectively. Subtitutes are there to change a game, offer something different, and give you the edge you need over the opposition as the game reaches the climax. Howley needs to have confidence in his bench to have an impact and make a difference. Bring Sam Davies on earlier so he has time to make an impact, use Ken Owens to bring intensity to the hard carries later on, etc. Below is the team I'd select to play South Africa

Wales Team v South Africa

15 - Liam Williams

14 - Leigh Halfpenny

13 - Jonathan Davies

12 - Scott Williams

11 - George North

10 - Dan Biggar

9 - Gareth Davies

1 - Gethin Jenkins

2 - Scott Baldwin

3 - Tomas Francis

4 - Luke Charteris

5 - Alun Wyn Jones

6 - Sam Warburton

7 - Justin Tipuric

8 - Ross Moriarty

16 - Ken Owens

17 - Nicky Smith

18 - Samson Lee

19 - Cory Hill

20 - Talupe Faletau

21 - Lloyd Williams

22 - Sam Davies

23 - Jamie Roberts

Is Davies ready to start?

By and large there no selection surprises in this team, it's practically the team that played Argentina two weeks ago. As discussed Halfpenny remains on the wing where he can do real damage, Liam Williams stays at fullback to offer counter-attacking opportunity. Scott Williams returns to inside centre to give Wales a more expansive fluid style of play, far more likely to step a player than try and run through them. Biggar returns to the fly-half shirt, because Wales need a seasoned campaigner who will allow Wales to play in the right places, put Wales into places where they can put South Africa under pressure and control the game. Gareth Davies returns but really needs to showcase his ability at getting Wales playing with tempo.

Scott Baldwin played so well against Japan he returns, especially for his lineout ability. Tomas Francis was an exceptional scrummager against the fearsome Argentina and get a chance to take on "The Beast". Charteris' lineout prowess and maul defence will be critical against South Africa, although their driving maul isn't quite the weapon it was anymore. Warburton and Tipuric played well against Argentina, Tipuric especially needs to show up in the wide channels and break the play. 

Faletau is back to fitness, and could return this weekend.

The bench will be key. Nicky Smith and Ken Owens offering dyanimc ball carrying later in the game to keep the intensity and allow Wales some go forward. Faletau returns to the bench after a solid performance for Bath last Friday, and his quality is too good to leave out, but not quite fit enough to start yet. Sam Davies is the second best fly-half in Wales and simply has to be on the bench, and as mentioned should be given time to settle into the game and exert himself. His kicking skills could play a big role at the end of the game if Wales are trying to close the game out. Jamie Roberts acts as cover, and a low risk strategy as the game closes when Wales need to maintain possession.