Tuesday, 28 June 2016

3 reasons England are just so damn good



There is no debate to it now, England are the second best team in the world. Some people will argue for the top spot, but that can only truly be judged come the Autumn, when New Zealand come to Twickenham. England look streets ahead of any of their Northern Hemisphere counter parts, and convincingly beat Australia in a 3-0 white wash to finish the season. They weren't clear and away better than Australia, and sometimes you wonder how Australia didn't win a test, but England finished every match the stronger side and were more than worthy of their three victories.

There are three particular areas that I have seen which play a significant part in their success, there may well be others, and feel free to discuss in the comments.

Leadership

The England team that walked out of their own World Cup had one glaring flaw. The decision makers on the park either didn't have the ability to make decisions, or the conviction to follow them through. It wasn't just in the World Cup it had become a consistent talking point among pundits that the captain didn't seem to know whether to go for goal or kick to the corner.

Hartley has been a leading light for England.
Six months later it is a different story, every opportunity England are given they know exactly what they are going to do, the entire team backs the decision and follows through with it. There is a belief that the captain - Hartley - and his vice captains (which will come onto in a minute) know what they are doing and the team will profit from the choices made.

Speaking of Hartley, making him captain has been an inspired decision, so much so that for me he is the man to lead the Lions on tour next year. His past is marred in ugly incidents which constantly threatened his position as a top quality hooker. But what others saw as over aggression and recklessness, Eddie Jones saw as combativeness and a will to win. Naming him captain set the tone for the sort of rugby England wanted to play. Hartley refusing to back down from a battle is what inspires his troops to follow him into the melee.

As brilliant as the "gamble" has been in the choice of captain, the reason it has worked so successfully is because Hartley isn't alone in leading the team. It's not often you see players publicly announced as a vice-captain, it's not something most coaches bother with, focusing instead on "defence captains" or "lineout captains". Not so for England. When Eddie Jones announced his first team he also listed three vice captains to support his hooker. Mike Brown at fullback; Owen Farrell at centre; and the young talent of Billy Vunipola at No. 8. Each player contained a facet of the Hartley leadership design. Brown is aggressive and never backs down; Farrell is calm assured, an excellent decision maker; Vunipola charges into the fray and drags the rest of the team forward with him. As vice-captain they were then each expected to do a role: Brown surveys the field and bosses from the back; Farrell controls the game, finding the way to move forward; and Vunipola was asked to put England on the front foot.

Vunipola is loving his role as Vice-Captain.
Vunipola is another - like Hartley -  that has thrived under the leadership role, he had struggled to become the player everyone wanted him to be under Lancaster, but with the expectation of him to perform and to make others follow him he has risen to the top. He knows everyone is watching him, so he gives them something to watch.

It helps in the leadership stakes when everything comes off as it has been doing, but that's down to well drilled players rather than luck. England deserve their "risks" to come off because they've worked for them, and having the peerless kicking of Farrell to take the points doesn't help either.



Simple "Northern Hemisphere" Rugby

After the World Cup last year every pundit was saying the age of forward power and defences was at an end and all the Northern Hemisphere teams had to learn how to play with width and creativity akin to New Zealand and Australia. At the time it seemed like the reality of rugby in the modern professional era. Six months later and with a Grand Slam Eddie Jones has shown a giant middle finger to that, and he took it with him to Australia.

England have set their foundations for victory
in the lineout.
Eddie Jones knew two things. One, he needed to restore faith in England by turning them back into the global force they were meant to be; Two, the players available to him did not have the skills or confidence to run a game like the Kiwi's. So what did he do? He took England back to the style of rugby that made them incredibly difficult to beat, and took them to the title in 2003. Focused on a 100% set piece, which provided clean possession every time and allowed the construction of
dangerous mauls, and the rampaging Vunipola to attack the 10 channel. It was then down to forwards running hard in endless waves, off both 9 and 10. With fast recycled ball at the breakdown the forwards could make continual inroads against unorganised defences. Wingers Nowell and Yarde were charged with using their size, strength, and speed in a similar fashion.

Combined with a kicking game ran by the accuracy of Ford and Farrell it meant England could dictate where the game was played. Either lofting cross field kicks and allow the wing-come-fullbacks on the flanks to compete against retreating defenders, or putting in long precise kicks over the opposition back three and forcing them to play from deep. With the opposition in their own third England look to pile on the pressure, they use their lineout as the first stage of their defence, the athletic Itoje competing at almost every one. This would either steal possession giving England a great chance to score, or simply produce ugly, messy ball for their opponents which then allowed the second wave to cause havoc. Lead by the aggressive James Haskell the English defensive line used what I refer to as a "chaos blitz", designed to push the opposition into trying something risky. Everyone flies up Haskell aims for the 10, Farrell aims for the 12, it is likely to produce dog legs, but that is the point. England put you under pressure and dare you to beat them, if you manage to find a way through then you've done well, if you can't get around the blitz then you're in deep trouble.
Haskell was player of the series with his aggressive defence, and unending work rate, simply superb.


Time and time again this defence paid off against the Australians, twice leading directly to tries which turned the tide of matches. Despite all this simple, hard running, set piece dominated system, there is still room for a bit of flair. Weirdly it mainly comes from forwards. Jamie George is putting the captain under pressure with his offloading ability, and grubber which won the series for England. Mako Vunipola has perfected the prop offload, taking two defenders with him before giving it to his support. The flair is there, but it is not a prerequisite, it is an added gloss which is only used when the outcome is as assured as it can be. Luck comes in a little bit, but when you're a team this good you're always "lucky".
Ford & Farrell have combined brilliantly, similar
to when they played together at Under 20's.

England's attack isn't without it's potency, they are still a top tier rugby team, but it plays differently to any rugby I've seen in a long time. It's less about power, or speed or width, and more about constantly wrong footing the opposition and getting hard runners attacking a disorganised defence. With the two "fly-halves" in Ford and Farrell, they are able to attack both sides of the breakdown, and the extra pair of eyes is capable of spotting where the mismatches are. Forwards are trusted to link up with each other to shift the point of contact and then follow their pass. The likes of Brown and Nowell consistently show up to add a bit of pace and ball ability among the forwards and the breakdown carries. It is a game plan based heavily in the England of old: simple, forward orientated, set piece domination and intelligent kicking; but the foundations of a more expansive  and instinctive game are present and will be built upon sooner rather than later.





Eddie Jones

This seems a bit of a given seeing as how England became #2 in the world under Eddie Jones, but let me explain. First up is his handling of the media. It is second to none, simultaneously dropping "grenades" which shift focus/blame to the opposition, while also refusing to allow journalists to attack his players, out right stating his players are great and any claims of poor form are unfounded. Just look at the way he handled the questions over George Ford in the 6 Nations, where his response to Ford's form in the Aviva Premiership was to state how well he played for England. Jones wont have anyone targeting his players, instead he makes slightly off colour comments, or controversial statements which mean the media will focus on him instead of his players. It takes a large amount of pressure and expectation off the players and allows them to play without fear of public scrutiny.

Eddie Jones is a media controlling marvel - always takes the pressure off his players.

Luther Burrell didn't perform as demanded.
Instead there is a fear of disappointing Jones, as little regard as he has for naysayers, he has even less for players not performing in his side. We saw it twice during the tour of Australia, Eddie Jones pulling players off at the 30 minute mark for not pulling their required weight. Luther Burrell was the first to feel the sheep's hook, later revealed to have been failing to implement the defensive system effectively after Australia had scored two tries in 20 minutes. It reinstated the Ford/Farrell axis which had flourished in the 6 Nations, and  was the primary reason for the 3-0 whitewash. Then in the third test Teimana Harrison was given a chance to prove he could be the long term successor to James Haskell; 30 minutes in he was pulled off in favour of Lawes, and Itoje moved to the back row. Claims that Harrison was not supplying the required physicality expected of him being the reason for his
withdrawal. This sort of ruthlessness has a double effect. Firstly it forces players to give everything they have for the shirt every minute of the game, the shadow of the bench looming large over everyone. But also it can mess with the oppositions pre-match preparation, if, as a team you've practiced how to defend and attack against a hard carrying centre like Burrell all week, but then 30 minutes into the game you're suddenly faced with a play-making 12, it can throw everything out of kilter. Whether this is intentional or not, it plays a significant part in England's victories.

Borthwick's appointment, has
done wonders for the England
lineout.
Jones' ruthlessness also extends to his acquisition of coaching staff, caring little for the impact on the teams he takes his backroom staff from. Hatley was taken from Bath at the end of the season, and
Paul Gustard removed from his position as Saracens defence coach while they were going for the double. Then the business with Steve Borthwick departing Bristol was a media storm, as Bristol denied any successful signing by the RFU vehemently. In the end it didn't matter, Eddie Jones' vision for England meant these coaches wanted to be a part of it, and he was always going to get his man, especially with the financial power of the RFU behind him. He didn't stop there, as he regularly brought in legends of the game to offer insight to his players: George Smith was tasked with coaching how to win the breakdown; Wilkinson to improve the kicking ability of the backline; even Australian Rugby League legend Andrew Johns was brought in during the summer to improve core skills and decision making of the half backs. With all of these influences coming in with a high level of expertise, the players have flourished.

Lastly, and perhaps most simply, the biggest impact Eddie Jones has had - compared to Lancaster - has been his insatiable desire to win. No other result is good enough, he came in wanting to win the Grand Slam and when he won that he instantly stated it was only a stepping stone to winning the Australia series 3-0. Now he's done that he has already set his sights on beating the All Blacks. As a player you can't understand the effect this would have, having your top man refusing to settle for any sort of "heroic defeat" or even basking in the glow of a well earned victory. He just wants more, and it is filtering down to the players. The England team under Lancaster looked to be respected and liked, a team of gentlemen in an aggressive sport. The team under Jones doesn't care about their image, if they are feared, loathed or hated it doesn't matter, provided that they win. This isn't to say Jones will accept victory no matter the cost, he will not accept players getting into fights or public altercations, but instead of quashing the aggression he targets it in a positive manner on the pitch. He understands the players, understands they need to let off steam every now and again, if players want to have a night out and relax then they can. Provided they know they have to be able to train at maximum intensity the next day, its a simple case of man-management, players know what is expected of them, if they do that then they will succeed under Eddie Jones. If they step out of line then the ramifications will be swift and uncompromising.



There we have it, my three reasons for why England are a dominant force in world rugby yet again, and are likely to be one for years to come. I will not be surprised to see England complete the first ever back to back Grand Slam come 2017.

Sunday, 26 June 2016

One test too far for tired Wales


After two weeks of valiant displays where Wales went toe-to-toe with the best team in the world and yet came off second best, but looked like a team on a strong upward trajectory, the third and final Test left a bitter taste in the mouth of many a Welshman.

Barrett had the game of his career in Dunedin.
It was a bloodbath as New Zealand ran rampant, Wales were missing tackles all over the park, George Moala playing in only his second test match was having a field day using his strength and footwork to scythe through the centres. Beauden Barrett had one of the greatest games of his career, scored two tries, kicked excellently out of hand, marshalled his backline and his accuracy from the tee was superb for someone who is often discounted from the first choice due to his kicking.

The lineout functioned better for Wales, but it counted for little in the end as New Zealand thrived off an aimless kicking display from the Welsh. It was the sort of performance the Welsh public thought had been left in the past, after two exciting tests where Wales put width on the ball and played with intelligent forward play. Instead for the third test the Welsh players looked too tired to even think about trying this brand of rugby, so they reverted to "Warrenball". For pretty much the whole game Wales played with Webb and Biggar hoisting kicks down the field, while forwards conducted one up carries around the breakdown. Both denied Wales any sort of tempo, or control on the match, instead gifting the All Blacks a wealth of potential counter attacking opportunities. Especially from kicks, the number of times Wales kicked to clear - from inside their 22m - and failed to find touch, allowing the glorious Israel Dagg to run back with ease and link up with the likes of Ben Smith and Beauden Barrett.

Three areas of discussion, positives, negatives and what next for Wales.

Positives

Liam Williams

Starting with the most obvious positive, the Scarlets fullback-come-wing. Without a doubt the best Welsh performer across all three tests, let alone performing heroics in a battered team this weekend. Any time Wales even looked like vaguely threatening the Kiwi line it was Williams at the heart of it, his footwork, aggression and turn of pace was still causing problems for the men in black, even after they seemed to have sussed out the rest of the Welsh attack.

Liam Williams came out of the tour have cemented
his importance to Wales.
In defence he made at least three crucial try saving tackles, looking around Shaun Edwards would be wishing he had another 14 of him in the side, as everyone else seemed to have forgotten how to complete a tackle. Even when it looked like the lightweight ex-scaffolder had been bumped off by the likes of Savea or Moala he still managed to cling on to something and bring them down on the second attempt. The moment that epitomised Liam William's commitment to the red-jersey and his nation was - even at 80 minutes - as Dagg sprinted in to pile on the misery, Williams was giving everything in his legs to get across and make the cover tackle.

He has confirmed his place in the Wales team after a stuttering season, whether that is at wing or fullback, he is Wales' most threatening attacker and that little bit of magic they have been missing since Shane Williams retired five years ago. 

Lineout Improvement

Itoje is a lineout king.
After two weeks of watching Wales blow perfectly good opportunities with a malfunctioning lineout, it was nice to see it return to some semblance of security. It was by no means a weapon but it did become a means of possession, as they varied their throws. More than once the hooker threw to the tail of the lineout, especially in the Kiwi 22 attempting to form a maul drive, and the number of times that Webb was able to get quick ball away to Biggar was more than it had been in the previous outings. 

The maul formation still needs work under the new rules, as the All Blacks were able to stall the drive consistently. And Wales need to start thinking about really trying to disrupt opposition ball, as the New Zealanders had nice clean possession to attack from instead of the messy ball they so often gave the Welsh. England see the opponents lineout as a chance to either steal possession, or the ability to give their scrum-half a torrid time and push them back behind the gainline. Wales need to look to develop that string to their bow.

Negatives

Defence

68%. That was the tackle completion percentage for Wales in the third test. A combined total of 22 missed tackles against an All Black side that ran almost 3 times the distance as their Welsh counter parts. This from a team that has been critical of any tackle completion below 90% for the past eight years. And it hasn't been a one off, baring the Italy walk over at the end of the 6 Nations, Wales have been amateur in their defending. Falling off tackles, attackers easily beating defenders with footwork, and poor decision making leaving holes for exploitation.
Edwards has a hell of a job on his hand, after a string
of disappointing defensive performances.

It is bemusing how this collapse has happened within the Welsh camp. At the World Cup they had the best defensive record of any team in the knockout stages, keeping Australia to no tries and South Africa to only one. It was the foundation of their heroic battling against the odds. 6 months later we're looking at a Wales team who just seem to have simply forgotten the tenants of making a tackle. They're letting opposition players dominate the collision, as they look to absorb the hit instead of making one themselves. They're sitting flat footed into the contact, allowing quick footed players to shimmy and go on the outside leaving the Welsh player grasping with flailing arms.

It's the kind of tackling you see from junior rugby players who are afraid of contact, as one captain I've played under calls them "tickle-tackles". The only possible reasoning I can make for this, is that Wales used to train defence and tackling 75% of the time, and now with the attempt to adapt the attacking style, that number has reduced and players aren't as well drilled. But I can't believe that this is the case, as they are professionals and the coaches are at the top of their game and must understand the need for balance. Not to mention you really shouldn't forget how to tackle just because you're not practicing it for hours every day.

The defence needs to get back to its brilliant best if Wales hope to compete at the top of the table, we've succeeded for long enough with a defence and limited attack. The new age of rugby coming demands the ability to score tries, but scoring three tries a game counts for little if you're conceding five.

Kicking Game

Biggar had a day to forget with the boot, and has struggled
in recent months.
We mentioned in last week's review that Wales seemed to have done away with the kick and chase game that had dominated the team for the last few years. Well, within a week Wales managed to go back on that. They kicked the ball out of hand over 30 times this weekend, often for no real reason. Webb and Biggar continually kicked the ball back to the likes of Dagg and Smith with "kicks to contest", but both lacked the accuracy that was required, and the chase was lethargic and patchy at best. One particular moment stood out, Wales had been under pressure and managed to win a penalty from a scrum on their own 5m line. From the ensuing clearance, Wales completed the lineout and set up a drive. The first action at that point was to make a speculative box kick for Liam Williams to chase, it was inaccurate and gave New Zealand the ball back with a chance to counter. In what possible universe it is the sensible choice after you've been under pressure to simply give the ball back to the opposition, instead of controlling the ball and the tempo and get yourself back into the game?

The half backs weren't the only culprits, Patchell didn't back up his performance from the second test and continually kicked down the centre of the park. Jonathan Davies was guilty of missing clearance kicks to touch, hell even Ross Moriarty - a blindside flanker - tried a grubber kick on his own 22 which ended up giving New Zealand a try. In all honesty it spoke of a team who was bereft of ideas, or simply too tired to attempt a high tempo attacking game and was hoping the opposition would make mistakes. Forgetting that they were playing a team that simply doesn't make mistakes, and is without a doubt the best counter-attacking team in the world. Biggar has been the fulcrum for Wales for so long, but he hasn't been at his best since the World Cup, he needs to pick up his game, or Gatland needs to look at the other options available to him.

Breakdown

There was a clear sight as to why Wales lacked the ability to make any real progress in an attacking sense, all you had to do was count. Simply count the number of players New Zealand had in a ruck, compared to the number Wales had in to retain possession. At times Wales were throwing three or four players into a ruck which had no New Zealander players on their feet. It slows down the possession from that ruck as the ball gets buried in unnecessary legs, and it gives the opposition a great chance of competing at the next breakdown as the support is lacking. 

Again it comes back to questioning how tired the players were going into this match, Wales seem to lack the players wanting to carry the ball. Ross Moriarty was continually taking balls from Rhys Webb, but he looked like the only forward wanting to carry into contact. The rest seemed content with adding unnecessary weight to the ruck and having a breather. 

The speed of ball from Kiwi rucks was on
another level.
On the other side of the breakdown battle, when Wales were defending, the lack of energy was again present. As mentioned Wales failed to dominate the collisions at tackle time, both in attack and defence, which meant New Zealand ball carriers were always pushing the Welsh players away from the ball, giving Aaron Smith the cleanest and quickest ball you could wish for. Allowing him to run the game at the tempo he wanted, and put his back line on the attack as Wales were still reeling, unable to set up the blitz. It was relentless speed which Wales simply couldn't keep up with, nor could they slow it down as captain Warburton again was unnoticed in the breakdown battle.

Warburton has been a superb captain and openside for Wales in the past, but he has been a shadow of the jackling terror that he was in 2013. Instead he seems more like a 6 with every passing month, even playing there for his club more than openside. So you have to question if he should be openside for the national side.

Warburton has struggled to compete at the break down in a long time, is he the right player for the 7 shirt anymore?

There are other negatives that arose during the match, but instead of focusing on that we will look towards the future and what questions Gatland and Co. need to answer for next season.

Where do Wales go from here?

Firstly they need to fix their defence, the buck stops there. Wales have shown that the attack is under transformation and starting to come together, putting the likes of Liam Williams and George North in space where they can use footwork and pace to give defences problems. There are flaws which we will address, but the attack is only going to be worth it if the defence stops the opposition.
Where did these sort of defensive efforts go?

Shaun Edwards has a contract till the end of the 2019 World Cup, he has proven his worth to Wales again and again, and he is probably working his damnedest to figure out how to fix the poison that is eroding the Welsh defence. He is not the only one, each and every player needs to consider their own failings and find it within themselves to improve and strive to be better. In reality it seems the major problems the defence has had against the All Blacks and England is that the speed of ball from the breakdown has been so rapid that the defence has no time to organise and put the opposition under pressure. Wales' defence has always been at its best when the likes of Warburton, Jenkins and Alun Wyn Jones are causing havoc at the breakdown, giving Jamie Roberts time to organise his defensive line. And recently that sort of breakdown competitiveness has been lacking, I can't remember the last time Sam Warburton completed a turnover or won a penalty. Warburton has been an excellent servant and captain for Wales since the 2011 World Cup, but based on regional form there are arguably three other players who are playing better:  Justin Tipuric, James Davies and Ellis Jenkins. All of them should be fit and available for selection come the Autumn Internationals, and Gatland might have to make the big call and drop Warburton for the best of the team.

Halfpenny looks set to return to the side come the autumn.
Speaking of selection conundrums Wales have to have a look at what the best selection of players is for the sort of game they want to be playing. Previous record be damned, Gatland has to start thinking about the 2019 World Cup, look at the players he has available to him and see if they can form a working team. The returned A-Team will play a large part in building the strength in depth required for a successful World Cup side, and begin to give the young players - who have two or three other players ahead of them in their position - a chance to show why they should be considered for the full international side. The back three seem pretty set now; Hallam Amos looked terrifyingly out of his depth this tour and with the return of Halfpenny he is likely to miss out for a while now. The centres Wales have limited options, Roberts and Davies have been hit-and-miss for the last few months, while Scott Williams has tried too hard to break through. Biggar is under serious pressure to start performing too.

These selection issues will be largely predated by the style of rugby that Wales look to play. From this series it is abundantly clear what Wales' best form of attack is. Combining front five forwards carrying away from the breakdown, who are also looking to pull the ball back to a second wave of fast moving backs and back rowers who looked to create over laps and mismatches. It allowed for the simple hard running that Wales know inside out, but it was combined with allowing the likes of North to attack the outside shoulder of the 13, where they have more space to have an impact. It worked wonderfully against the best team in the world, and with forwards in the wide channels it created fast ball which caused more problems for New Zealand. It's not an incredibly complex addition to the system they already play, but it relies on players across the park trusting their handling and their decision making under pressure, something that can only be improved by continuing to do it under pressure. 

The time for the kick-chase
has come to an end.
During the first two tests we also saw - by and large - the disappearance of the kick-chase game. It has had a lot of success in the past, but if you look at the top three teams in the world (as of now) they are all superbly strong in the air especially in the back three. This meant that Wales did not have an incredibly high chance of reclaiming the ball from these kicks and it will more often than not just end up giving the ball back to the opposition, and right into the hands of their most dangerous players. There is a time and a place for kicking the ball to contest, but the All Blacks - and Wales - looked most dangerous when they ran the ball back with purpose and looked to attack dog legs and forwards. Wales have some of the most exciting and dangerous wingers/fullbacks in the game that are feared in their own right, yet in recent years they've been asked to play simple boring rugby. Kicks should be used to either release pressure, or put the opposition under pressure and not seen as an attack in themselves.

The final topic of discussion for me is the coaching staff. A few days before the final Test, both attack coach Rob Howley and forwards coach Robin McBryde were confirmed as having signed new deals which will take them through to the 2019 World Cup. This came as a bit of a surprise to many Welsh fans, especially considering we had seen a change in ethos in attack and the message coming from the head of the WRU was that Wales are going in a new direction of rugby. So the fact that the same attack coach who implemented "Warrenball" has been retained and asked to coach a new style is a little bemusing. There was a chance to bring in a little bit of new blood who would have shook up the Wales players and demanded something new of them. The same puzzlement arises with McBryde, we had witnessed a Wales team who's set piece was struggling, the lineout a mess and the scrum often look troubled by a New Zealand team that's never been famed for its scrum.
Is Howley the man for the job, does he need a skills
coach to help him out?

However they have re-signed so either they will turn the performances around, and get the "new style" working, or Wales may have to look in to signing a couple of specialist coaches. England brought in a scrum coach to complement the lineout brilliance of Steve Borthwick, and have a temporary skills coach trying to bring on the core abilities of their players. Wales should consider following suit if the funds are available. Robin McBryde has struggled to get Wales' lineout working to the required level, so would a lineout coach be a worthwhile investment? And the arguments for a "skills coach" write themselves: Wales want to play a wider game; they want their forwards to be able to pass and offload; they want their backs to make correct decisions under pressure. Bring in someone who will focus on bringing up the core ball handling ability of the squad, while Howley is left to making sure the new attack is implemented properly and beds in.

After all that, considering the sort of rugby Wales are looking to play, and considering everyone at full fitness and available to play. This is the squad I think Wales that would fit best.

Ideal New Age Wales 23

15 - Leigh Halfpenny
14 - George North
13 - Jonathan Davies
12 - Jamie Roberts
11 - Liam Williams
10 - Dan Biggar
9 - Rhys Webb

1 - Gethin Jenkins
2 - Ken Owens
3 - Samson Lee
4 - Luke Charteris
5 - Alun Wyn Jones
6 - Sam Warburton
7 - Justin Tipuric
8 - Talupe Faletau

16 - Scott Baldwin
17 - Rob Evans
18 - Tomas Francis
19 - Bradley Davies
20 - Ross Moriarty
21 - Gareth Davies
22 - Gareth Anscombe
23 - Scott Williams
Tipuric would thrive in this new Welsh attack.

At first glance this team is pretty much as expected there are no real changes from the team that Gatland has selected for the last few years. However it has a few caveats. Firstly that Sam Warburton accepts his role as a blindside flanker, and does all the dirty unseen work required of that role, thus allowing Tipuric to act in the wide channels and play like a third centre. Gethin Jenkins ousts Rob Evans, purely because Rob Evans currently suffers from a little white line fever and with the new system intelligent decisions have to be made. Dan Biggar retains his place, but purely because the other options are not strongly prevalent. Anscombe has not been seen - really - at Test level in the ten shirt, but needs a chance to prove himself. Priestland should be omitted as he is unlikely to reach the World Cup, the likes of Sam Davies should be considered instead, or Owen Williams from Leicester Tigers. 

Scott Williams could be knocking
on the door soon.
Moriarty deserves his place in the squad, after setting his stall out as a hard worker, and strong ball carrier during the tour of New Zealand, he has also tackled his heart out. When you consider that Dan Lydiate has lost a little something, since his aggressive "chop-tackle" has started being heavily penalised by referees. Jamie Roberts is another like Biggar, who needs to put in some strong performances quickly and remind everyone why he is the first choice, otherwise Scott Williams could begin to push him since he is reforming his partnership with Davies at the Scarlets. Finally Halfpenny walks back into the squad after no one stood up to claim the shirt in his absence, and he frees up the fly-half slot as Wales become less reliant on the excellence of Biggar to kick at goal. Halfpenny is given the 15 shirt, as Williams has proven he is just as effective on the wing, but both should be given license to roam and interchange positions to better suit the team in different situations. 

That's my views - let me know what you think.

Wednesday, 22 June 2016

Valiant Wales executed by ruthless Kiwi's


In the end it was the same story we've seen the last few years. Wales neck-and-neck with the best team in in the world at half time, before being undone by a 15 minute period where every mistake is punished with cut-throat lethality.

Alun Wyn Jones goes over in the corner.(Huw Evans Photography)
Wales levelled the game on the stroke of half time with an excellent try, produced in the fashion of expansive hard running rugby that the Welsh public have been crying out for. Produced by a hard incisive angle by Jonathan Davies, Warrenball at it's best, then combining with forward the backline finished it off as Davies produced a perfectly weighted miss pass to send Alun Wyn Jones over on the wing. A forward in the wide channel is the exact thing needed under this new style, and it may not be the reason he was out there, but tries will come from the extra support. This was after Aaron Smith
had produced the pass of the year to unlock the Welsh blitz and allow Israel Dagg to waltz over the line, it was a piece of class that showed exactly why New Zealand are the world champions. Half time 10-10, Wales looked threatening and the All Blacks had lost their little general as Cruden was stretchered off with a nasty neck injury.

The second half started well, both teams throwing everything at each other in an effort to take the lead. In the end the game changing moment came from another malfunctioning Welsh lineout, as captain Kieran Read got infront of the Welsh jumper to steal the ball. Then the counter-attacking Kiwi's were unleashed, one carry sucked in Welsh defenders, before two quick wide passes put Beauden Barrett in space allowing him to breeze through the both Roberts and Davies and send Ben
Barrett was running rampant through the Welsh defence.
Smith over for the try. The dam has broken. From the ensuing kick off, Aaron Smith broke through some uncharacteristically poor breakdown defence before putting a kick in down field. Biggar recovered but was held up and a scrum given to New Zealand. Kieran Read picked up, produced a sublime offload to his scrum half, causing chaos in the Welsh defence. Smith fed Barrett who stepped inside Davies, avoided Roberts and slid in under the posts. Not only was the damn broken, but the tide was dragging Wales under.

The mistakes continued from Wales as they looked for a way back, Roberts dropping a simple pass gave the ball back to the Kiwi's, a few phases later and they had a penalty 5m out, calling a scrum. Once again Reed produced an audacious out-of-contact offload, pulling in two defenders, allowing Smith to execute a simple 2-on-1 and send Naholo over for his third try of the series. And the 14 minutes of utter devestation was completed 3 minutes later. Wales getting a penalty after Naholo intentionally barged Liam Williams into the turf off the ball (reasonable argument for a yellow card, not given in the match) the kicked for the corner, penalty won from the ball and it was repeated. This time the lineout was over thrown from substitute Scott Baldwin, and the All Blacks sensed blood again. With recycled possession they attempted a cross kick, which despite being woeful still worked, allowing Naholo to connect with Kaino, another in contact offload sent Naholo down the wing, the support was once again in surplus an Ardie Savea collected the pass to sprint in with ease from 50 yards. Wales were dead and buried in 14 minutes of absolutely perfect rugby.

Pleasingly however Wales didn't cow to the towering scoreline, and nilled the All Blacks from there. Producing two late tries of their own to finish the game the stronger of the two sides. Firstly Dan Biggar attacked the line, combining clever footwork, and a perfectly timed pass to put the simply majestic Liam Williams through a hole, and he finished to get the try he so strongly deserved. Lastly as the Welsh defence refused to crack under Kiwi pressure, Roberts intercepted an attempted chip kick, and broke away. With 75 minutes under his belt and being chased by the electric Barrett he was never going to make it alone, but support from Priestland and Jonathan Davies allowed Wales to create a respectable scoreline in the end. It should be said that Jonathan Davies' intervention for that try went viral over the weekend, producing a piston like fend putting the 16-stone Tamanivalu through the floor and remind people just why he is a Lion's test centre.
Jonathan Davies produced a cataclysmic hand-off to score the final try of the match (Huw Evans Photography)

Overall it was a similar performance to the 1st test. Wales ultra competitive for the first 40, but a 15 minute period from the All Blacks enough to see off the challenge. The biggest difference being that this time Wales were the team to finish stronger and prove that they aren't a team that can only play up to 65 minutes. There is still much work to be done, but it's not all doom and gloom before the final test. So where do Wales stand for the final test in Dunedin?

Negatives

Lineout

It was the same issue a week ago, and it wasn't really fixed this time around. New Zealand were once again able to disrupt the Wales lineout with ease, stealing ball, or giving Rhys Webb problematic possession to attack with. Although New Zealand's excellence and atheltisicm in the lineout wasn't the only issue, more than once there was more timing or throwing leading to the turn over of possession. The most notable of these was the lineout which lead to the Kiwi's final try. After a successful lineout not 30 seconds earlier, which a good drive was formed from, Wales kicked to the corner again sensing a chance to get back in the game. Scott Baldwin had recently come on and seemed to fail connecting with his jumper. Throwing too early and watching the ball sail clearly over the still in mid-lift Bradley Davies. It seemed to show a distinct lack of practice between the set of players as hooker and jumper didn't work in unison to secure possession, and it wasn't as if New
Zealand put them under pressure as they stayed on the ground ready to disrupt the drive. 

The lineout has been a weakness.
It's become a feature of Wales' performance in recent months that they fail to complete set piece - especially in the attacking third. Wales may be playing an more expansive and exciting brand of rugby which is leading to multiple tries - 3 for the past two matches - but without the territory upon which they can use it, they will struggle to put teams away. Considering that the both the first and last try of the game killing period came from turnovers at a lineout in the New Zealand half, you have to think what would have happened if Wales had secured that ball. The dam wouldn't of been cracked to start with, and then the flood would have been stalled, potentially actually have started to be turned back. That last try was a clear 14 point swing, and when you consider the final result was a 14 point difference, it could have made the world of difference.

Ken Owens has been a critical player in play around the field and does look the more stable of the two hookers at the set piece, he should start again, but something needs to be done, and quickly about the lineout. It might be worth Wales investing in someone like England's Steve Borthwick as a lineout maestro, to support Robin McBryde (who has just signed a contract extension to the next World Cup).

Tackling

Compared to the 1st Test where Wales' primary defensive problem was the excellent Aaron Cruden able to beat the hard blitz with an array of kicks and miss passes, this time the system worked well and kept New Zealand under wraps. Only really scoring tries from counter attack, and through Read's excellent offloading skills, and one piece of magic from Aaron Smith in the first half - which did break the Edwards blitz system, but just the once.

This week instead the flaw that was unearthed was Wales players falling off the one-on-one tackles. The two biggest exponents of this problem were the two Welsh centres, both were valiant in attack, but shockingly exposed against the footwork of Barrett and co. Twice the Welsh centres were cut in two as Barrett sliced between them, both times leading to important tries. This is not something that should be happening in international rugby, the channel between the 12 and 13 should be a steel wall where no attacker passes. In the past this has been the case with Roberts and Davies under Edwards, even with Davies being the primary hard blitzer the space between the two was marshalled and protected. 

It's not often Roberts misses a tackle.
It is almost unbelievable at times watching Jamie Roberts missing tackles, it's almost as rare as Jonny Wilkinson missing a kick at goal, or Ronaldo letting someone else take a free-kick. He has been the rock upon which the Welsh defence has produced incredibly displays and won tournaments. The players around him would just assume he would make his tackles and nothing would break his channel, but it looked fragile last weekend. Jonathan Davies' was similarly at fault at times, and
something needs to be done. There is a strong possibility that Jamie Roberts could miss the final test due to concussion protocol after a titanic clash of heads against Fekitoa, and Scott Williams will slot right in. Ideally I think Roberts should stay, Scott Williams had a terrible game against the Chiefs and also Roberts is responsible for the organisation of the back-line in defence and Wales could really miss that against a New Zealand side going for the white-wash.

You do have to wonder why Wales are starting to fall off defensively after being so clinical and strong in defence for years. It begs the thought that Wales have sacrificed defensive drill time in order to work on attack and ball skills. If so the attacking rewards are undeniable, but there needs to be a balance struck, as Shaun Edwards must be begging for time to fix the crumbling defence.

Support

The biggest difference in attack between the two teams was being able to put away line break chances. This was largely due to the support lines run by those without the ball. With New Zealand it was clear to see, if one player made a break three or four players would be within ten meters of him giving him all sorts of options with which to beat the second line and cover defence. It was instinctive and proactive thought which meant players believed their teammates would bust through and they could flood after them. Meanwhile for the men in red, it was a case of other players would have to react to their teammate's break. There were two particular moments which come to mind for this.

One being the eventual final try for Jonathan Davies, Roberts "intercepted" the ball and powered up field, eventually being caught on the New Zealand 22. He did exceptionally to stay on his feet and allow support time to arrive in the form of Rhys Priestland and eventually Davies and Hallam Amos. But Roberts had to fight off the attentions of Barrett for a good five seconds before he had an option to offload to. If it had been the other way around the All Blacks probably would have had the person on hand to pass to before contact was made. 

The other instance actually occurred early in the second half, and was the first real opportunity for Wales to strike. Warburton blitzed perfectly and intercepted a pass, no one would have expected the flanker to go 80 meters especially being chased by three New Zealand backs. However he only had one man with him on his desperate charge, the ever present Talupe Faletau. The pass from Warburton didn't stick, but Faletau still would have had a lot of work to do if he did catch it, Naholo was near by and they were still 40 odd meters out. But even at that point there were no other red shirts within 20-30 meters, which allowed New Zealand to form a counter attack of their own. Again you feel if the shoe had been on the other foot the All Black player would have had at least one player on each shoulder with which to pass to, such that even if a tackle was made the ball would be recycled. 

It's certainly not an easy fix, nothing that can be worked on in a week like the other two problems. It is something that should - and hopefully will - be developed over time, with this new system of attack. There are certain players in the Wales set up who are already very good at turning up after a line break to capitalise on it: Rhys Webb, Taulupe Faletau, Liam Williams are all on tour at the moment; and the blue capped Justin Tipuric is another wonderful support runner. These are the sort of players that when on the field will try their hardest to be in support of the man through the hole, Rhys Webb especially has a knack for scoring tries this way - just look at his try in the 1st Test. Tipuric is maybe a bit of a long shot with the captain Warburton in possession of the 7 shirt, but it's worth a thought.
One the left is a Wales quick turnover, on the right is a All Black one. Look at the difference in available support.

Positives

Attacking Style

Once again praise has to be put on the new style of attack Wales are playing, it is the perfect blend of the age old hard running; and the width and handling that dominated the World Cup 9 months ago. It was directly responsible for two of Wales' tries, the first - for Alun Wyn Jones - was an almost pin point example of the new style. Started with two tight hard runs from Roberts and Davies, the ball being given to Davies who made the break. From then it was a combination of forward carries, forward's passing it to backs and finished with an executed overlap scored by a forward in the wide position. Wales have scored five tries in two games against the world champions, this is clearly the way forward for Wales in the future.

Liam Williams has been outstanding all tour
(Huw Evans Photography)
The player who is thriving the most under this style is without a doubt the self styled "bomb-diffuser" Liam Williams. He is absolutely back to his best, no matter what position he's been asked to fill. At fullback in the first test he was the equal to the world class Ben Smith, for the second test shifted to wing he was the best back-three player on the pitch. Uncompromising in defence, adventurous in
attack, and utterly committed to the high ball. It takes a lot for the New Zealand public to praise an opposition player, but Liam Williams is receiving all of the plaudits. He is simply undropable for the foreseeable future, and Gatland has to fit him in, even with Halfpenny's heroic return on the weekend for Toulon. 

One noteable absence from the Welsh attack this week was the kick and chase system. It barely featured in the first test beyond two instances in the first half, but I can't remember a moment in the 2nd Test where Biggar hoisted a contestable kick up for players to chase. Whether that is a clear change in style, or whether a tactical plan to avoid and risk of a kick counter it is an interesting development none the less.

Defence

Morarity has been good
(Huw Evans Photography)
This seems a bit weird to praise when Wales leaked 5 tries again, and I have chastised the tackling already. But the system looked better this time around. The "Edwards' Blitz" only really unpicked in one moment - that pass by Aaron Smith - and instead the tries for the Kiwi's coming largely from offloads and turnovers which disrupted the formation of the defensive line. Don't get me wrong these wrinkles need to be ironed out, but in general play New Zealand struggled to unpick the Welsh defence at the ease which they did under Cruden's control in the first test. 

The breakdown defence was similarly fantastic, Ross Morarity was superb filling in for Lydiate. He was aggressive in defence with a superb completion rate too, combine that with the amount of brutal ball carrying he did you have to praise his work ethic and whether Lydiate will get his place back.

Commitment & Fitness

Paul Stridgeon's fitness
work starting to pay
off.
We can't avoid talking about the fact that for the first time in a long time Wales finished stronger than New Zealand. So often it has been New Zealand rampaging to the final whistle, this time it was Wales scoring two tries in the final 10 minutes to give New Zealand something to think about. After the 14 minute period of New Zealand black-magic most teams would have buckled under the assault and watched on as the game became a blood bath. Instead Wales found a way to stem the tide and put the All Blacks under pressure and capitalise themselves.

It goes to show that Wales have got the ability to finish a game, all they need to do now is be close enough to their opponent to make that fitness, drive, willpower and skills under tiredness count and
claim the victory. This is easier said than done, Wales haven't put a complete 80 minute performance together in a long time, the last clear memory would be the South Africa victory at the Millennium Stadium a few years ago. But if they can find that in themselves again they are capable of beating anyone in the world. 


Team for the 3rd Test v New Zealand

15 - Gareth Anscombe
14 - Liam Williams
13 - Jonathan Davies
12 - Jamie Roberts (assuming fit to play)
11 - Hallam Amos
10 - Dan Biggar
9 - Rhys Webb

1 - Rob Evans
2 - Ken Owens
3 - Samson Lee
4 - Luke Charteris
5 - Alun Wyn Jones
6 - Ross Moriarty
7 - Sam Warburton (C)
8 - Talupe Faletau

16 - Scott Baldwin
17 - Aaron Jarvis
18 - Tomas Francis
19 - Jake Ball
20 - Ellis Jenkins
21 - Gareth Davies
22 - Rhys Patchell
23 - Scott Williams (Tyler Morgan if no Jamie Roberts)

Anscombe comes in at fullback for me.
The team pretty much picks itself. Assuming Jamie Roberts passes concussion protocol tests he should start again, he has worked well in the new attack, and is important to the defence even if he has struggle in tackles recently. Scott Williams is a capable deputy but never done enough to convince me or coaches he should be starting. Hallam Amos again has struggled to produce anything in the team, but hasn't done anything that should merit his exclusion either, still one of the best finishers Wales have and until the return of Halfpenny Wales' best person to fill in. Anscombe
replaces Patchell - who is unlucky - purely on experience and a little on ability, his Super Rugby foundation could and should work excellently in the new Wales sytem. Patchell played excellently and so makes the bench over Priestland, but more as fullback cover than fly-half.

In the pack Luke Charteris after starting test two, starts again in the hope the lineout works a little better with him in it, and he also puts the worry into the opposition head that their lineout mauls will not be effective. Ken Owens starts as discussed, in attack he is excellent, at set piece he has performed better than Baldwin in recent weeks too. Gethin Jenkins' calf injury forces him out of the side, and it is a huge loss to the breakdown defence, as he has been superb all over the field. Rob Evans will be confident though after a breakthrough 6 Nations, and he adds another dynamic ball carrier to help out Owens and Moriarty. 

Jenkins will be missed in the final test.
The bench again is the same as before (excluding injuries), Bradley Davies' ball carrying will be missed, but Jake Ball has proven his force in the enforcer role before and will relish the chance. Aaron Jarvis is more a tight-head by trade but capable to slot in on the left of the scrum, he is no veteran Paul James, but he gets his chance through injury. Ellis Jenkins adds support, and breakdown nous which could prove key at the end of the game, although needs time to show his ability. Gareth Davies got no chance to show what he can do in the second test, but is still the favourite second choice at scrum half. Scott Williams fills the last bench position maybe using his pace and footwork to capitalise on the space around at the end of the game. 

Wales are nearly there in terms of a complete performance, the number one thing they need is a set piece in the attacking third, able to get the ball from which they can attack. The defence will come back, and by limiting the chance of counter attack means the opposition will score less anyway.

3rd Test Prediction: New Zealand by 5-10.

Tuesday, 14 June 2016

Wales stand up against the All Blacks



It was a match filled with uncertainty. Would Wales find a performance after two catastrophic performances at Twickenham? Would New Zealand cope without their retired superstars? Would Warburton cope with a Test match after so long off? Would the new Kiwi centres match up to the experience of their Welsh counterparts?

The widely held belief was New Zealand would be comfortable, but there was quiet optimism from the Welsh camp after the team announcements. There was a wealth of experience in the Wales team, and players had put in notable performances in recent memory, North during the 6 Nations, Amos against England, Webb for the Ospreys.

It started excellently for Wales, scoring the first try of the game, after a traditional kick and chase, Wales reclaimed the ball, quick recycling allowed Liam Williams to break down the right, one break down later and some excellent handleing from centurion Alun Wyn Jones, allowed North and Amos to beat the All Black defence and send Faletau over in the corner. It was the perfect combination of "Warrenball" and the new age rugby that dominated the World Cup. Wales continued this all
Faletau scores the first try of the match.
throughout the first half, combining hard enforcing carries around the breakdown with the likes of Bradley Davies, Ken Owens and Ross Moriarty putting their bodies on the lines, mixed with getting the likes of Liam Williams, George North and Jonathan Davies in space to utilise their footwork and pace.

The All Blacks hit back in traditional methods, the first was a beautifully executed cross kick by Cruden to give Savea his 39th test try, the other a kick chase being won by the indomitable Ben Smith, lead to an 80 metre counter attack under the posts after superb handling and decision making by the Kiwi's. But Liam Williams refused to be shown up by his Kiwi counterpart and created his own counter attacking try, breaking two tackles through the centre to feed the try machine Rhys Webb and give Wales the lead at the break.

Naholo was lethal
The lead was still in place up to the 60th minute, but as is so often the case the final quarter is the realm of the men in black. And Wales were obviously started to feel the effect of the high tempo the game had been played at for the previous three quarters, New Zealand turned up the pressure. Quick
tap try from the powerful Naholo - looking like a NFL running back burrowing over the white wash - gave the Kiwi's the lead which they would then refuse to relinquish. Another try from captain Kieran Read put the game beyond any doubt. Wales had a chance to close the gap in the final moments but once again failed to complete the chance on the try line, and instead New Zealand refused to release the choke hold and went on to score another try after the 80 minute mark. The end scoreboard certainly flattered Steve Hansen's men, but across the full match they showed exactly why they are the best in the world, with two consecutive World Cups.


So what went right, and what went wrong for Wales in Auckland?

Negatives

Failed chances

There were two big moments in the match where Wales looked certain to score and crucial times, but failed to get over the line. The first was right on the half time whistle, Wales lead by three and had the Kiwi's on the rack, a succession of set pieces on the 5m line and strong carries it looked for certain they would cross the line. But once again, as has happened many times in the past, Wales look narrow in their efforts to get over the line, and squandered the chance to head into the break more than a
The All Blacks always find a way over the line.
score ahead. And then shortly after the Kiwi's retook the lead at the 62 minute mark, Wales were once again camped in the New Zealand 22, with pressure mounting it was a chance to retake the lead and keep New Zealand on the rack. Once again the Kiwi's came away with the ball and shortly afterwards were scoring a try of their own. Wales have to figure out how to score when they have an opportunity, you can't help but think that if it were the other way around, the All Blacks would have gotten over the line.

Lineout

After a successful first half at the set piece, in the second half it went a little wrong. Twice Ken Owens failed to find his man, by under throwing, so instead of the jumper competing for the ball at the peak of his trajectory, it was closer to his chest, allowing the All Blacks to get up in front and steal. These lineouts occurred in threatening positions and could have lead to Welsh opportunities, once again seeing chances go begging is Wales' biggest flaw at the moment, and against the World Champions you have to take every chance presented because you know they will take theirs. 

Due to the amount of work Ken Owens' had put into the game by the point the lineout faltered you think maybe that fitness was starting to play a part, with a lack of power in the arms to get the ball on the right arc. He was subbed shortly after, most likely in an effort to maintain fitness on the park, as his game was largely faultless otherwise.

Kick Chase

Ben Smith punished Wales' kick chase team.
This is a little nit-picky, but a couple of times the All Black's were allowed to run the ball back from a kick with serious intent, largely due to an ineffective kick chase. The second Kiwi try came directly from poor communication on the chase, leaving no Wales player not competing for the ball, as such when the contest was won by Ben Smith, he had a free field in front of him to run into, and 5 seconds later Naholo was under the posts.

It's important when trying to attack with a kick that some players are prepared for the opposition to claim the ball, and shut down and chance of a counter attack. Especially against the back-three line up of the quality that Smith, Savea and Naholo have.

Defence

Again this is a debatable point. For large aspects of the game the Welsh defence was top quality, limiting the All Black attack, especially around the fringe as Gethin Jenkins, Talupe Faletau and Sam Warburton put in a herculean effort to stymie the All Black breakdown speed. But at major points it
Jenkins loves the
breakdown battle.
fell apart, as mentioned in the kick chase, but also on the try line. At points it looked a little easy for the All Blacks to get over the last 5m, especially compared to the amount of Wales seemed to put into trying to get those last few yards. The second Naholo try is a stand out moment, from a simple and obvious quick tap penalty, Naholo was able to charge over the 5-6 meter gap as no Welsh player rushed up to meet him, allowing him a simple burrow through Dan Biggar to take the lead. It's drilled into players from a young age, when the opposition takes a quick tap you close down the gap as fast as possible, so why no Wales player did this is bemusing.

The last action of the game was also a simple try for the All Blacks, admittedly against a very tired Wales team who knew the game was over. But the old pride that Wales had in their defence is gone, as for the second Test match in a row they conceded five tries. All this talk about building the Wales attack seems to have meant the defence has been forgotten about, and I seriously have to ask how a professional outfit can't maintain something while working on a weak area at the same time.

Fitness

Gatland has always demanded that his team be the fittest team in World Rugby. Based on recent performances (against England) they're not even the fittest in the Northern Hemisphere, let alone comparing that to the Kiwi's. After 60 minutes Wales players looked out on their feet, they had given everything, and that is when the All Blacks struck - as they always do. The Kiwi's were able to find another gear to shift into and punish a tiring defence with ruthless efficiency. 

Rugby is now a 23 man game, and you'd hope that the bench would come on and up the effort levels of the team to keep the intensity till the final whistle. But the bench added little for Wales as they reached the critical part of the match. Ellis Jenkins had a good brief cameo, completing a turnover and a number of tackles, but the front row replacements added little to the Welsh performance and young Rob Evans was guilty of white line fever as Wales looked to retake the lead. Wales will struggle to compete against the Southern Hemisphere (and England who have exceptional strength in depth under Eddie Jones) unless their second choice players seriously start competing for a starting berth, and add dynamism from the bench.

The Welsh players looked exhausted, while the Kiwi's were able to pick up the tempo. (Huw Evans Photography)


But that's enough of tearing down a truly heart raising performance from the men in red.

Positives

Attacking Intent

Yes they were guilty of white line fever at points, but you cannot take away from the new brand of "Warrenball" that arrived in Auckland. Wales took their traditional crash ball ferocity low risk game plan, and turned it into something that almost resembled the way we've known the All Blacks to play for years. Forwards were running hard 5-10m off Rhys Webb at the breakdown, assessing their options and regularly pulling the ball back to the deeper - but attacking - Biggar. Who was then presented with multiple options, often one centre offering a steam roller ball in order to hold the defence, the blindside winger or fullback in behind them sweeping around, looking to creat a 3-on-2, or a 4-on-3. Combined with outside backs looking to take the ball to the line, fix a defender and pass the ball before contact, it lead to the excellent try from Faletau, and made Wales dangerous throughout when they had the ball.

North flourished in the new attacking style.
The ease by which Webb and Biggar play together was apparent as well, both seemed to know what the other was thinking and it allowed Wales to play with tempo, Webb organised his pack before he arrived at the breakdown, allowing him to get the ball away as soon as it was available. Biggar - knowing the forwards were in shape - could poss his back-line to get the new style working with fluidity and potency. It was almost beautiful to watch, and George North was able to show case all his talents in this set up, footwork, pace and power kept two - sometime three- defenders focused on him at all times. Jamie Roberts so long maligned by swathes of the Welsh public for being one dimensional, passed the ball more than he carried it into contact, and Liam Williams was back to his best, easing through and around defenders to set up chances.

Breakdown Defence

Previously mentioned that Wales denied the All Blacks fast clean ball for the majority of the first half. As breakdown specialists Warburton, Jenkins and Alun Wyn Jones got in and caused havoc, while the rest of the back put in endless tackles to keep the All Blacks from crossing the gainline. This ferocity wasn't without it's flaws, especially as it required a lot of effort and with 20 minutes left it had obviously paid it's toll, but it was crucial to Wales' lead come 60 minutes.

Biggar kept the All Blacks
under pressure
(Hugh Evans Photography)

Kicking

While the kick chase was hit and miss, the accuracy of the kicks by Biggar, Webb, Davies and Williams was excellent all evening. Deep kicks sat around the touchline, limiting the return options for the Kiwi back three; high hanging kicks which allowed the Welsh chasers to get after and compete in the air; little grubbers that put pressure on Ben Smith. It was a master class of kick choice and execution, and had Wales' kick chase and lineout been that little better through out it could have been the key in a shock win.

Next Match

There isn't much that has to be fixed by Saturday. The fitness issues will not be able to be fixed, Wales will just have to help the defence pays of and they can build a bigger lead in the first 60. The top priority for the coaching staff is to get the lineout function at maximum efficiency, Wales have to win the ball on their own throw in 90% of the time, and every time in the attacking third if they are going to turn chances into points. The obvious method would be to reintroduce Charteris to the starting team, but I would keep the Jones/Davies engine room, the hard graft and strong carrying work of those two was vital in the effort to get front foot ball. Charteris should take the bench slot to bring athleticism and a high tackle count in the last 20 as players begin to wilt.

The backline's biggest problem is now replacing the irreplaceable. George North is out injured for the rest of the tour, and now the coaching staff have to replace their biggest attacking weapon. Amos should retain his place on the left wing, his defence wasn't 100% but he's still learning, and was up against one of Super Rugby's most lethal wingers. After the performance today of the reserves against the Chiefs (which has been deliberate not discussed here, as it was not a Test and a beyond woeful performance - check my social media for my opinions), no player has out right demanded that he should have the shirt. Out of the two wingers on display Tom James got involved the most, and is most similar to North so would arguably fit in the best. Eli Walker would add a little something different, but could struggle to deal with Savea. The young Keelan Giles is highly unlikely to feature, as he has no top level experience, and Gatland maintains experience is critical. The other option would be to move Liam Williams to wing, and slot Gareth Anscombe into fullback, this is risky especially after the game Williams had in the 1st test, and the distribution skills displayed by the likes of Roberts and Davies means that Anscombe may not be needed.
Keelan Giles is a star in the making, but this tour is too early in his development to earn a Test cap.



In reality Wales just need to play the same way they did in the first test, put the All Blacks under pressure and capitalise on any mistakes; take every chance that is presented and a better use of the bench to keep the defence, tempo and aggression at high levels. I would maybe argue that Aled Davies had a better game than his Scarlet teammate Gareth Davies against the Chiefs, and is a similar mold to Webb in the way he gets the ball away from the breakdown, so should maybe be considered for the bench in test #2.

My Team for the 2nd Test

15 - Liam Williams
14 - Hallam Amos
13 - Jonathan Davies
12 - Jamie Roberts
11 - Tom James
10 - Dan Biggar
9 - Rhys Webb

1 - Gethin Jenkins
2 - Ken Owens
3 - Samson Lee
4 - Bradley Davies
5 - Alun Wyn Jones
6 - Ross Moriarty
7 - Sam Warburton (C)
8 - Talupe Faletau

16 - Scott Baldwin
17 - Rob Evans
18 - Tomas Francis
19 - Luke Charteris
20 - Ellis Jenkins
21 - Aled Davies
22 - Gareth Anscombe
23 - Scott Williams

This team is as little changed as possible, no player used the "trial game" to give Gatland any reason to change the line up. Tom James will have to have the game of his life, having to fill the boots of George North. The bench is where the tight calls lie:

Scott Baldwin does just about enough to retain his place, although Kristian Dacey's efforts from the bench have put him in the frame. Rob Evans needs to learn he can't do everything, but his ball carrying ability could be important in the later stages. Luke Charteris has gained a reputation for
Charteris has developed a reputation for tackling.
lineout brilliance and a huge tackle statistic; this will be critical if the lineout is faltering and Wales are defending a lead in the final stages like they have in the past. Ellis Jenkins is another breakdown competitor who regularly puts out large tackle numbers, and considering James King and Josh Turnbull had pretty poor games against the Chiefs, he gets another chance to take on the best.

I've gone for Aled Davies over Gareth Davies, purely in an attempt to maintain the breakdown tempo and allow Wales to keep attacking the All Blacks as legs get tired. Gareth Davies has been great for Wales so far this season, and is still a valid pick, but is prone to making poor decisions. Anscombe retains his place due to Priestland's apathetic performance mid week, but he himself needs to showcase his quality. Scott Williams is another who's place is only maintained due to lack of performance from others - although he made seriously costly decisions against the Chiefs and would have been under threat - his experience counts for much too.

Wales have it all to do, the All Blacks will be much better than they were last weekend, and Wales are reeling from an atrocious mid-week match, and the loss of a critical player. They will have to perform better, cut out all mistakes and score every time they have a chance. Sadly I can't see this happening, but there could be some tries for them in an honourable defeat.

Prediction: New Zealand by 15-20 points.


Disclaimer: The game against the Chiefs is largely avoided in performance and tactical discussions here, as it was not a realistic team put out by Wales, and the poor nature of the performance provides little insight into the potential for Wales in the Test series. In a nutshell the game was an appalling performance by Wales, who lacked any sort of desire or tempo for 60 minutes at which point the game was lost.