One test too far for tired Wales

After two weeks of valiant displays where Wales went toe-to-toe with the best team in the world and yet came off second best, but looked like a team on a strong upward trajectory, the third and final Test left a bitter taste in the mouth of many a Welshman.

Barrett had the game of his career in Dunedin.

It was a bloodbath as New Zealand ran rampant, Wales were missing tackles all over the park, George Moala playing in only his second test match was having a field day using his strength and footwork to scythe through the centres. Beauden Barrett had one of the greatest games of his career, scored two tries, kicked excellently out of hand, marshalled his backline and his accuracy from the tee was superb for someone who is often discounted from the first choice due to his kicking.

The lineout functioned better for Wales, but it counted for little in the end as New Zealand thrived off an aimless kicking display from the Welsh. It was the sort of performance the Welsh public thought had been left in the past, after two exciting tests where Wales put width on the ball and played with intelligent forward play. Instead for the third test the Welsh players looked too tired to even think about trying this brand of rugby, so they reverted to "Warrenball". For pretty much the whole game Wales played with Webb and Biggar hoisting kicks down the field, while forwards conducted one up carries around the breakdown. Both denied Wales any sort of tempo, or control on the match, instead gifting the All Blacks a wealth of potential counter attacking opportunities. Especially from kicks, the number of times Wales kicked to clear - from inside their 22m - and failed to find touch, allowing the glorious Israel Dagg to run back with ease and link up with the likes of Ben Smith and Beauden Barrett.

Three areas of discussion, positives, negatives and what next for Wales.

Positives

Liam Williams

Starting with the most obvious positive, the Scarlets fullback-come-wing. Without a doubt the best Welsh performer across all three tests, let alone performing heroics in a battered team this weekend. Any time Wales even looked like vaguely threatening the Kiwi line it was Williams at the heart of it, his footwork, aggression and turn of pace was still causing problems for the men in black, even after they seemed to have sussed out the rest of the Welsh attack.

Liam Williams came out of the tour have cemented
his importance to Wales.

In defence he made at least three crucial try saving tackles, looking around Shaun Edwards would be wishing he had another 14 of him in the side, as everyone else seemed to have forgotten how to complete a tackle. Even when it looked like the lightweight ex-scaffolder had been bumped off by the likes of Savea or Moala he still managed to cling on to something and bring them down on the second attempt. The moment that epitomised Liam William's commitment to the red-jersey and his nation was - even at 80 minutes - as Dagg sprinted in to pile on the misery, Williams was giving everything in his legs to get across and make the cover tackle.

He has confirmed his place in the Wales team after a stuttering season, whether that is at wing or fullback, he is Wales' most threatening attacker and that little bit of magic they have been missing since Shane Williams retired five years ago. 

Lineout Improvement

Itoje is a lineout king.

After two weeks of watching Wales blow perfectly good opportunities with a malfunctioning lineout, it was nice to see it return to some semblance of security. It was by no means a weapon but it did become a means of possession, as they varied their throws. More than once the hooker threw to the tail of the lineout, especially in the Kiwi 22 attempting to form a maul drive, and the number of times that Webb was able to get quick ball away to Biggar was more than it had been in the previous outings. 

The maul formation still needs work under the new rules, as the All Blacks were able to stall the drive consistently. And Wales need to start thinking about really trying to disrupt opposition ball, as the New Zealanders had nice clean possession to attack from instead of the messy ball they so often gave the Welsh. England see the opponents lineout as a chance to either steal possession, or the ability to give their scrum-half a torrid time and push them back behind the gainline. Wales need to look to develop that string to their bow.

Negatives

Defence

68%. That was the tackle completion percentage for Wales in the third test. A combined total of 22 missed tackles against an All Black side that ran almost 3 times the distance as their Welsh counter parts. This from a team that has been critical of any tackle completion below 90% for the past eight years. And it hasn't been a one off, baring the Italy walk over at the end of the 6 Nations, Wales have been amateur in their defending. Falling off tackles, attackers easily beating defenders with footwork, and poor decision making leaving holes for exploitation.

Edwards has a hell of a job on his hand, after a string
of disappointing defensive performances.

It is bemusing how this collapse has happened within the Welsh camp. At the World Cup they had the best defensive record of any team in the knockout stages, keeping Australia to no tries and South Africa to only one. It was the foundation of their heroic battling against the odds. 6 months later we're looking at a Wales team who just seem to have simply forgotten the tenants of making a tackle. They're letting opposition players dominate the collision, as they look to absorb the hit instead of making one themselves. They're sitting flat footed into the contact, allowing quick footed players to shimmy and go on the outside leaving the Welsh player grasping with flailing arms.

It's the kind of tackling you see from junior rugby players who are afraid of contact, as one captain I've played under calls them "tickle-tackles". The only possible reasoning I can make for this, is that Wales used to train defence and tackling 75% of the time, and now with the attempt to adapt the attacking style, that number has reduced and players aren't as well drilled. But I can't believe that this is the case, as they are professionals and the coaches are at the top of their game and must understand the need for balance. Not to mention you really shouldn't forget how to tackle just because you're not practicing it for hours every day.

The defence needs to get back to its brilliant best if Wales hope to compete at the top of the table, we've succeeded for long enough with a defence and limited attack. The new age of rugby coming demands the ability to score tries, but scoring three tries a game counts for little if you're conceding five.

Kicking Game

Biggar had a day to forget with the boot, and has struggled
in recent months.

We mentioned in last week's review that Wales seemed to have done away with the kick and chase game that had dominated the team for the last few years. Well, within a week Wales managed to go back on that. They kicked the ball out of hand over 30 times this weekend, often for no real reason. Webb and Biggar continually kicked the ball back to the likes of Dagg and Smith with "kicks to contest", but both lacked the accuracy that was required, and the chase was lethargic and patchy at best. One particular moment stood out, Wales had been under pressure and managed to win a penalty from a scrum on their own 5m line. From the ensuing clearance, Wales completed the lineout and set up a drive. The first action at that point was to make a speculative box kick for Liam Williams to chase, it was inaccurate and gave New Zealand the ball back with a chance to counter. In what possible universe it is the sensible choice after you've been under pressure to simply give the ball back to the opposition, instead of controlling the ball and the tempo and get yourself back into the game?

The half backs weren't the only culprits, Patchell didn't back up his performance from the second test and continually kicked down the centre of the park. Jonathan Davies was guilty of missing clearance kicks to touch, hell even Ross Moriarty - a blindside flanker - tried a grubber kick on his own 22 which ended up giving New Zealand a try. In all honesty it spoke of a team who was bereft of ideas, or simply too tired to attempt a high tempo attacking game and was hoping the opposition would make mistakes. Forgetting that they were playing a team that simply doesn't make mistakes, and is without a doubt the best counter-attacking team in the world. Biggar has been the fulcrum for Wales for so long, but he hasn't been at his best since the World Cup, he needs to pick up his game, or Gatland needs to look at the other options available to him.

Breakdown

There was a clear sight as to why Wales lacked the ability to make any real progress in an attacking sense, all you had to do was count. Simply count the number of players New Zealand had in a ruck, compared to the number Wales had in to retain possession. At times Wales were throwing three or four players into a ruck which had no New Zealander players on their feet. It slows down the possession from that ruck as the ball gets buried in unnecessary legs, and it gives the opposition a great chance of competing at the next breakdown as the support is lacking. 

Again it comes back to questioning how tired the players were going into this match, Wales seem to lack the players wanting to carry the ball. Ross Moriarty was continually taking balls from Rhys Webb, but he looked like the only forward wanting to carry into contact. The rest seemed content with adding unnecessary weight to the ruck and having a breather. 

The speed of ball from Kiwi rucks was on
another level.

On the other side of the breakdown battle, when Wales were defending, the lack of energy was again present. As mentioned Wales failed to dominate the collisions at tackle time, both in attack and defence, which meant New Zealand ball carriers were always pushing the Welsh players away from the ball, giving Aaron Smith the cleanest and quickest ball you could wish for. Allowing him to run the game at the tempo he wanted, and put his back line on the attack as Wales were still reeling, unable to set up the blitz. It was relentless speed which Wales simply couldn't keep up with, nor could they slow it down as captain Warburton again was unnoticed in the breakdown battle.

Warburton has been a superb captain and openside for Wales in the past, but he has been a shadow of the jackling terror that he was in 2013. Instead he seems more like a 6 with every passing month, even playing there for his club more than openside. So you have to question if he should be openside for the national side.

Warburton has struggled to compete at the break down in a long time, is he the right player for the 7 shirt anymore?

There are other negatives that arose during the match, but instead of focusing on that we will look towards the future and what questions Gatland and Co. need to answer for next season.

Where do Wales go from here?

Firstly they need to fix their defence, the buck stops there. Wales have shown that the attack is under transformation and starting to come together, putting the likes of Liam Williams and George North in space where they can use footwork and pace to give defences problems. There are flaws which we will address, but the attack is only going to be worth it if the defence stops the opposition.

Where did these sort of defensive efforts go?

Shaun Edwards has a contract till the end of the 2019 World Cup, he has proven his worth to Wales again and again, and he is probably working his damnedest to figure out how to fix the poison that is eroding the Welsh defence. He is not the only one, each and every player needs to consider their own failings and find it within themselves to improve and strive to be better. In reality it seems the major problems the defence has had against the All Blacks and England is that the speed of ball from the breakdown has been so rapid that the defence has no time to organise and put the opposition under pressure. Wales' defence has always been at its best when the likes of Warburton, Jenkins and Alun Wyn Jones are causing havoc at the breakdown, giving Jamie Roberts time to organise his defensive line. And recently that sort of breakdown competitiveness has been lacking, I can't remember the last time Sam Warburton completed a turnover or won a penalty. Warburton has been an excellent servant and captain for Wales since the 2011 World Cup, but based on regional form there are arguably three other players who are playing better:  Justin Tipuric, James Davies and Ellis Jenkins. All of them should be fit and available for selection come the Autumn Internationals, and Gatland might have to make the big call and drop Warburton for the best of the team.

Halfpenny looks set to return to the side come the autumn.

Speaking of selection conundrums Wales have to have a look at what the best selection of players is for the sort of game they want to be playing. Previous record be damned, Gatland has to start thinking about the 2019 World Cup, look at the players he has available to him and see if they can form a working team. The returned A-Team will play a large part in building the strength in depth required for a successful World Cup side, and begin to give the young players - who have two or three other players ahead of them in their position - a chance to show why they should be considered for the full international side. The back three seem pretty set now; Hallam Amos looked terrifyingly out of his depth this tour and with the return of Halfpenny he is likely to miss out for a while now. The centres Wales have limited options, Roberts and Davies have been hit-and-miss for the last few months, while Scott Williams has tried too hard to break through. Biggar is under serious pressure to start performing too.

These selection issues will be largely predated by the style of rugby that Wales look to play. From this series it is abundantly clear what Wales' best form of attack is. Combining front five forwards carrying away from the breakdown, who are also looking to pull the ball back to a second wave of fast moving backs and back rowers who looked to create over laps and mismatches. It allowed for the simple hard running that Wales know inside out, but it was combined with allowing the likes of North to attack the outside shoulder of the 13, where they have more space to have an impact. It worked wonderfully against the best team in the world, and with forwards in the wide channels it created fast ball which caused more problems for New Zealand. It's not an incredibly complex addition to the system they already play, but it relies on players across the park trusting their handling and their decision making under pressure, something that can only be improved by continuing to do it under pressure. 

The time for the kick-chase
has come to an end.

During the first two tests we also saw - by and large - the disappearance of the kick-chase game. It has had a lot of success in the past, but if you look at the top three teams in the world (as of now) they are all superbly strong in the air especially in the back three. This meant that Wales did not have an incredibly high chance of reclaiming the ball from these kicks and it will more often than not just end up giving the ball back to the opposition, and right into the hands of their most dangerous players. There is a time and a place for kicking the ball to contest, but the All Blacks - and Wales - looked most dangerous when they ran the ball back with purpose and looked to attack dog legs and forwards. Wales have some of the most exciting and dangerous wingers/fullbacks in the game that are feared in their own right, yet in recent years they've been asked to play simple boring rugby. Kicks should be used to either release pressure, or put the opposition under pressure and not seen as an attack in themselves.

The final topic of discussion for me is the coaching staff. A few days before the final Test, both attack coach Rob Howley and forwards coach Robin McBryde were confirmed as having signed new deals which will take them through to the 2019 World Cup. This came as a bit of a surprise to many Welsh fans, especially considering we had seen a change in ethos in attack and the message coming from the head of the WRU was that Wales are going in a new direction of rugby. So the fact that the same attack coach who implemented "Warrenball" has been retained and asked to coach a new style is a little bemusing. There was a chance to bring in a little bit of new blood who would have shook up the Wales players and demanded something new of them. The same puzzlement arises with McBryde, we had witnessed a Wales team who's set piece was struggling, the lineout a mess and the scrum often look troubled by a New Zealand team that's never been famed for its scrum.

Is Howley the man for the job, does he need a skills
coach to help him out?

However they have re-signed so either they will turn the performances around, and get the "new style" working, or Wales may have to look in to signing a couple of specialist coaches. England brought in a scrum coach to complement the lineout brilliance of Steve Borthwick, and have a temporary skills coach trying to bring on the core abilities of their players. Wales should consider following suit if the funds are available. Robin McBryde has struggled to get Wales' lineout working to the required level, so would a lineout coach be a worthwhile investment? And the arguments for a "skills coach" write themselves: Wales want to play a wider game; they want their forwards to be able to pass and offload; they want their backs to make correct decisions under pressure. Bring in someone who will focus on bringing up the core ball handling ability of the squad, while Howley is left to making sure the new attack is implemented properly and beds in.

After all that, considering the sort of rugby Wales are looking to play, and considering everyone at full fitness and available to play. This is the squad I think Wales that would fit best.

Ideal New Age Wales 23

15 - Leigh Halfpenny

14 - George North

13 - Jonathan Davies

12 - Jamie Roberts

11 - Liam Williams

10 - Dan Biggar

9 - Rhys Webb

1 - Gethin Jenkins

2 - Ken Owens

3 - Samson Lee

4 - Luke Charteris

5 - Alun Wyn Jones

6 - Sam Warburton

7 - Justin Tipuric

8 - Talupe Faletau

16 - Scott Baldwin

17 - Rob Evans

18 - Tomas Francis

19 - Bradley Davies

20 - Ross Moriarty

21 - Gareth Davies

22 - Gareth Anscombe

23 - Scott Williams

Tipuric would thrive in this new Welsh attack.

At first glance this team is pretty much as expected there are no real changes from the team that Gatland has selected for the last few years. However it has a few caveats. Firstly that Sam Warburton accepts his role as a blindside flanker, and does all the dirty unseen work required of that role, thus allowing Tipuric to act in the wide channels and play like a third centre. Gethin Jenkins ousts Rob Evans, purely because Rob Evans currently suffers from a little white line fever and with the new system intelligent decisions have to be made. Dan Biggar retains his place, but purely because the other options are not strongly prevalent. Anscombe has not been seen - really - at Test level in the ten shirt, but needs a chance to prove himself. Priestland should be omitted as he is unlikely to reach the World Cup, the likes of Sam Davies should be considered instead, or Owen Williams from Leicester Tigers. 

Scott Williams could be knocking
on the door soon.

Moriarty deserves his place in the squad, after setting his stall out as a hard worker, and strong ball carrier during the tour of New Zealand, he has also tackled his heart out. When you consider that Dan Lydiate has lost a little something, since his aggressive "chop-tackle" has started being heavily penalised by referees. Jamie Roberts is another like Biggar, who needs to put in some strong performances quickly and remind everyone why he is the first choice, otherwise Scott Williams could begin to push him since he is reforming his partnership with Davies at the Scarlets. Finally Halfpenny walks back into the squad after no one stood up to claim the shirt in his absence, and he frees up the fly-half slot as Wales become less reliant on the excellence of Biggar to kick at goal. Halfpenny is given the 15 shirt, as Williams has proven he is just as effective on the wing, but both should be given license to roam and interchange positions to better suit the team in different situations. 

That's my views - let me know what you think.