It was a match filled with uncertainty. Would Wales find a performance after two catastrophic performances at Twickenham? Would New Zealand cope without their retired superstars? Would Warburton cope with a Test match after so long off? Would the new Kiwi centres match up to the experience of their Welsh counterparts?
The widely held belief was New Zealand would be comfortable, but there was quiet optimism from the Welsh camp after the team announcements. There was a wealth of experience in the Wales team, and players had put in notable performances in recent memory, North during the 6 Nations, Amos against England, Webb for the Ospreys.
It started excellently for Wales, scoring the first try of the game, after a traditional kick and chase, Wales reclaimed the ball, quick recycling allowed Liam Williams to break down the right, one break down later and some excellent handleing from centurion Alun Wyn Jones, allowed North and Amos to beat the All Black defence and send Faletau over in the corner. It was the perfect combination of "Warrenball" and the new age rugby that dominated the World Cup. Wales continued this all
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| Faletau scores the first try of the match. |
The All Blacks hit back in traditional methods, the first was a beautifully executed cross kick by Cruden to give Savea his 39th test try, the other a kick chase being won by the indomitable Ben Smith, lead to an 80 metre counter attack under the posts after superb handling and decision making by the Kiwi's. But Liam Williams refused to be shown up by his Kiwi counterpart and created his own counter attacking try, breaking two tackles through the centre to feed the try machine Rhys Webb and give Wales the lead at the break.
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| Naholo was lethal |
tap try from the powerful Naholo - looking like a NFL running back burrowing over the white wash - gave the Kiwi's the lead which they would then refuse to relinquish. Another try from captain Kieran Read put the game beyond any doubt. Wales had a chance to close the gap in the final moments but once again failed to complete the chance on the try line, and instead New Zealand refused to release the choke hold and went on to score another try after the 80 minute mark. The end scoreboard certainly flattered Steve Hansen's men, but across the full match they showed exactly why they are the best in the world, with two consecutive World Cups.
So what went right, and what went wrong for Wales in Auckland?
Negatives
Failed chances
There were two big moments in the match where Wales looked certain to score and crucial times, but failed to get over the line. The first was right on the half time whistle, Wales lead by three and had the Kiwi's on the rack, a succession of set pieces on the 5m line and strong carries it looked for certain they would cross the line. But once again, as has happened many times in the past, Wales look narrow in their efforts to get over the line, and squandered the chance to head into the break more than a
score ahead. And then shortly after the Kiwi's retook the lead at the 62 minute mark, Wales were once again camped in the New Zealand 22, with pressure mounting it was a chance to retake the lead and keep New Zealand on the rack. Once again the Kiwi's came away with the ball and shortly afterwards were scoring a try of their own. Wales have to figure out how to score when they have an opportunity, you can't help but think that if it were the other way around, the All Blacks would have gotten over the line.
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| The All Blacks always find a way over the line. |
Lineout
After a successful first half at the set piece, in the second half it went a little wrong. Twice Ken Owens failed to find his man, by under throwing, so instead of the jumper competing for the ball at the peak of his trajectory, it was closer to his chest, allowing the All Blacks to get up in front and steal. These lineouts occurred in threatening positions and could have lead to Welsh opportunities, once again seeing chances go begging is Wales' biggest flaw at the moment, and against the World Champions you have to take every chance presented because you know they will take theirs.
Due to the amount of work Ken Owens' had put into the game by the point the lineout faltered you think maybe that fitness was starting to play a part, with a lack of power in the arms to get the ball on the right arc. He was subbed shortly after, most likely in an effort to maintain fitness on the park, as his game was largely faultless otherwise.
Kick Chase
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| Ben Smith punished Wales' kick chase team. |
This is a little nit-picky, but a couple of times the All Black's were allowed to run the ball back from a kick with serious intent, largely due to an ineffective kick chase. The second Kiwi try came directly from poor communication on the chase, leaving no Wales player not competing for the ball, as such when the contest was won by Ben Smith, he had a free field in front of him to run into, and 5 seconds later Naholo was under the posts.
It's important when trying to attack with a kick that some players are prepared for the opposition to claim the ball, and shut down and chance of a counter attack. Especially against the back-three line up of the quality that Smith, Savea and Naholo have.
Defence
Again this is a debatable point. For large aspects of the game the Welsh defence was top quality, limiting the All Black attack, especially around the fringe as Gethin Jenkins, Talupe Faletau and Sam Warburton put in a herculean effort to stymie the All Black breakdown speed. But at major points it
fell apart, as mentioned in the kick chase, but also on the try line. At points it looked a little easy for the All Blacks to get over the last 5m, especially compared to the amount of Wales seemed to put into trying to get those last few yards. The second Naholo try is a stand out moment, from a simple and obvious quick tap penalty, Naholo was able to charge over the 5-6 meter gap as no Welsh player rushed up to meet him, allowing him a simple burrow through Dan Biggar to take the lead. It's drilled into players from a young age, when the opposition takes a quick tap you close down the gap as fast as possible, so why no Wales player did this is bemusing.
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| Jenkins loves the breakdown battle. |
The last action of the game was also a simple try for the All Blacks, admittedly against a very tired Wales team who knew the game was over. But the old pride that Wales had in their defence is gone, as for the second Test match in a row they conceded five tries. All this talk about building the Wales attack seems to have meant the defence has been forgotten about, and I seriously have to ask how a professional outfit can't maintain something while working on a weak area at the same time.
Fitness
Gatland has always demanded that his team be the fittest team in World Rugby. Based on recent performances (against England) they're not even the fittest in the Northern Hemisphere, let alone comparing that to the Kiwi's. After 60 minutes Wales players looked out on their feet, they had given everything, and that is when the All Blacks struck - as they always do. The Kiwi's were able to find another gear to shift into and punish a tiring defence with ruthless efficiency.
Rugby is now a 23 man game, and you'd hope that the bench would come on and up the effort levels of the team to keep the intensity till the final whistle. But the bench added little for Wales as they reached the critical part of the match. Ellis Jenkins had a good brief cameo, completing a turnover and a number of tackles, but the front row replacements added little to the Welsh performance and young Rob Evans was guilty of white line fever as Wales looked to retake the lead. Wales will struggle to compete against the Southern Hemisphere (and England who have exceptional strength in depth under Eddie Jones) unless their second choice players seriously start competing for a starting berth, and add dynamism from the bench.
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| The Welsh players looked exhausted, while the Kiwi's were able to pick up the tempo. (Huw Evans Photography) |
But that's enough of tearing down a truly heart raising performance from the men in red.
Positives
Attacking Intent
Yes they were guilty of white line fever at points, but you cannot take away from the new brand of "Warrenball" that arrived in Auckland. Wales took their traditional crash ball ferocity low risk game plan, and turned it into something that almost resembled the way we've known the All Blacks to play for years. Forwards were running hard 5-10m off Rhys Webb at the breakdown, assessing their options and regularly pulling the ball back to the deeper - but attacking - Biggar. Who was then presented with multiple options, often one centre offering a steam roller ball in order to hold the defence, the blindside winger or fullback in behind them sweeping around, looking to creat a 3-on-2, or a 4-on-3. Combined with outside backs looking to take the ball to the line, fix a defender and pass the ball before contact, it lead to the excellent try from Faletau, and made Wales dangerous throughout when they had the ball.
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| North flourished in the new attacking style. |
The ease by which Webb and Biggar play together was apparent as well, both seemed to know what the other was thinking and it allowed Wales to play with tempo, Webb organised his pack before he arrived at the breakdown, allowing him to get the ball away as soon as it was available. Biggar - knowing the forwards were in shape - could poss his back-line to get the new style working with fluidity and potency. It was almost beautiful to watch, and George North was able to show case all his talents in this set up, footwork, pace and power kept two - sometime three- defenders focused on him at all times. Jamie Roberts so long maligned by swathes of the Welsh public for being one dimensional, passed the ball more than he carried it into contact, and Liam Williams was back to his best, easing through and around defenders to set up chances.
Breakdown Defence
Previously mentioned that Wales denied the All Blacks fast clean ball for the majority of the first half. As breakdown specialists Warburton, Jenkins and Alun Wyn Jones got in and caused havoc, while the rest of the back put in endless tackles to keep the All Blacks from crossing the gainline. This ferocity wasn't without it's flaws, especially as it required a lot of effort and with 20 minutes left it had obviously paid it's toll, but it was crucial to Wales' lead come 60 minutes.
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| Biggar kept the All Blacks under pressure (Hugh Evans Photography) |
Kicking
While the kick chase was hit and miss, the accuracy of the kicks by Biggar, Webb, Davies and Williams was excellent all evening. Deep kicks sat around the touchline, limiting the return options for the Kiwi back three; high hanging kicks which allowed the Welsh chasers to get after and compete in the air; little grubbers that put pressure on Ben Smith. It was a master class of kick choice and execution, and had Wales' kick chase and lineout been that little better through out it could have been the key in a shock win.
Next Match
There isn't much that has to be fixed by Saturday. The fitness issues will not be able to be fixed, Wales will just have to help the defence pays of and they can build a bigger lead in the first 60. The top priority for the coaching staff is to get the lineout function at maximum efficiency, Wales have to win the ball on their own throw in 90% of the time, and every time in the attacking third if they are going to turn chances into points. The obvious method would be to reintroduce Charteris to the starting team, but I would keep the Jones/Davies engine room, the hard graft and strong carrying work of those two was vital in the effort to get front foot ball. Charteris should take the bench slot to bring athleticism and a high tackle count in the last 20 as players begin to wilt.
The backline's biggest problem is now replacing the irreplaceable. George North is out injured for the rest of the tour, and now the coaching staff have to replace their biggest attacking weapon. Amos should retain his place on the left wing, his defence wasn't 100% but he's still learning, and was up against one of Super Rugby's most lethal wingers. After the performance today of the reserves against the Chiefs (which has been deliberate not discussed here, as it was not a Test and a beyond woeful performance - check my social media for my opinions), no player has out right demanded that he should have the shirt. Out of the two wingers on display Tom James got involved the most, and is most similar to North so would arguably fit in the best. Eli Walker would add a little something different, but could struggle to deal with Savea. The young Keelan Giles is highly unlikely to feature, as he has no top level experience, and Gatland maintains experience is critical. The other option would be to move Liam Williams to wing, and slot Gareth Anscombe into fullback, this is risky especially after the game Williams had in the 1st test, and the distribution skills displayed by the likes of Roberts and Davies means that Anscombe may not be needed.
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| Keelan Giles is a star in the making, but this tour is too early in his development to earn a Test cap. |
In reality Wales just need to play the same way they did in the first test, put the All Blacks under pressure and capitalise on any mistakes; take every chance that is presented and a better use of the bench to keep the defence, tempo and aggression at high levels. I would maybe argue that Aled Davies had a better game than his Scarlet teammate Gareth Davies against the Chiefs, and is a similar mold to Webb in the way he gets the ball away from the breakdown, so should maybe be considered for the bench in test #2.
My Team for the 2nd Test
15 - Liam Williams
14 - Hallam Amos
13 - Jonathan Davies
12 - Jamie Roberts
11 - Tom James
10 - Dan Biggar
9 - Rhys Webb
1 - Gethin Jenkins
2 - Ken Owens
3 - Samson Lee
4 - Bradley Davies
5 - Alun Wyn Jones
6 - Ross Moriarty
7 - Sam Warburton (C)
8 - Talupe Faletau
16 - Scott Baldwin
17 - Rob Evans
18 - Tomas Francis
19 - Luke Charteris
20 - Ellis Jenkins
21 - Aled Davies
22 - Gareth Anscombe
23 - Scott Williams
This team is as little changed as possible, no player used the "trial game" to give Gatland any reason to change the line up. Tom James will have to have the game of his life, having to fill the boots of George North. The bench is where the tight calls lie:
Scott Baldwin does just about enough to retain his place, although Kristian Dacey's efforts from the bench have put him in the frame. Rob Evans needs to learn he can't do everything, but his ball carrying ability could be important in the later stages. Luke Charteris has gained a reputation for
lineout brilliance and a huge tackle statistic; this will be critical if the lineout is faltering and Wales are defending a lead in the final stages like they have in the past. Ellis Jenkins is another breakdown competitor who regularly puts out large tackle numbers, and considering James King and Josh Turnbull had pretty poor games against the Chiefs, he gets another chance to take on the best.
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| Charteris has developed a reputation for tackling. |
I've gone for Aled Davies over Gareth Davies, purely in an attempt to maintain the breakdown tempo and allow Wales to keep attacking the All Blacks as legs get tired. Gareth Davies has been great for Wales so far this season, and is still a valid pick, but is prone to making poor decisions. Anscombe retains his place due to Priestland's apathetic performance mid week, but he himself needs to showcase his quality. Scott Williams is another who's place is only maintained due to lack of performance from others - although he made seriously costly decisions against the Chiefs and would have been under threat - his experience counts for much too.
Wales have it all to do, the All Blacks will be much better than they were last weekend, and Wales are reeling from an atrocious mid-week match, and the loss of a critical player. They will have to perform better, cut out all mistakes and score every time they have a chance. Sadly I can't see this happening, but there could be some tries for them in an honourable defeat.
Prediction: New Zealand by 15-20 points.
Disclaimer: The game against the Chiefs is largely avoided in performance and tactical discussions here, as it was not a realistic team put out by Wales, and the poor nature of the performance provides little insight into the potential for Wales in the Test series. In a nutshell the game was an appalling performance by Wales, who lacked any sort of desire or tempo for 60 minutes at which point the game was lost.
Disclaimer: The game against the Chiefs is largely avoided in performance and tactical discussions here, as it was not a realistic team put out by Wales, and the poor nature of the performance provides little insight into the potential for Wales in the Test series. In a nutshell the game was an appalling performance by Wales, who lacked any sort of desire or tempo for 60 minutes at which point the game was lost.
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