Valiant Wales executed by ruthless Kiwi's

In the end it was the same story we've seen the last few years. Wales neck-and-neck with the best team in in the world at half time, before being undone by a 15 minute period where every mistake is punished with cut-throat lethality.

Alun Wyn Jones goes over in the corner.(Huw Evans Photography)

Wales levelled the game on the stroke of half time with an excellent try, produced in the fashion of expansive hard running rugby that the Welsh public have been crying out for. Produced by a hard incisive angle by Jonathan Davies, Warrenball at it's best, then combining with forward the backline finished it off as Davies produced a perfectly weighted miss pass to send Alun Wyn Jones over on the wing. A forward in the wide channel is the exact thing needed under this new style, and it may not be the reason he was out there, but tries will come from the extra support. This was after Aaron Smith
had produced the pass of the year to unlock the Welsh blitz and allow Israel Dagg to waltz over the line, it was a piece of class that showed exactly why New Zealand are the world champions. Half time 10-10, Wales looked threatening and the All Blacks had lost their little general as Cruden was stretchered off with a nasty neck injury.

The second half started well, both teams throwing everything at each other in an effort to take the lead. In the end the game changing moment came from another malfunctioning Welsh lineout, as captain Kieran Read got infront of the Welsh jumper to steal the ball. Then the counter-attacking Kiwi's were unleashed, one carry sucked in Welsh defenders, before two quick wide passes put Beauden Barrett in space allowing him to breeze through the both Roberts and Davies and send Ben

Barrett was running rampant through the Welsh defence.

Smith over for the try. The dam has broken. From the ensuing kick off, Aaron Smith broke through some uncharacteristically poor breakdown defence before putting a kick in down field. Biggar recovered but was held up and a scrum given to New Zealand. Kieran Read picked up, produced a sublime offload to his scrum half, causing chaos in the Welsh defence. Smith fed Barrett who stepped inside Davies, avoided Roberts and slid in under the posts. Not only was the damn broken, but the tide was dragging Wales under.

The mistakes continued from Wales as they looked for a way back, Roberts dropping a simple pass gave the ball back to the Kiwi's, a few phases later and they had a penalty 5m out, calling a scrum. Once again Reed produced an audacious out-of-contact offload, pulling in two defenders, allowing Smith to execute a simple 2-on-1 and send Naholo over for his third try of the series. And the 14 minutes of utter devestation was completed 3 minutes later. Wales getting a penalty after Naholo intentionally barged Liam Williams into the turf off the ball (reasonable argument for a yellow card, not given in the match) the kicked for the corner, penalty won from the ball and it was repeated. This time the lineout was over thrown from substitute Scott Baldwin, and the All Blacks sensed blood again. With recycled possession they attempted a cross kick, which despite being woeful still worked, allowing Naholo to connect with Kaino, another in contact offload sent Naholo down the wing, the support was once again in surplus an Ardie Savea collected the pass to sprint in with ease from 50 yards. Wales were dead and buried in 14 minutes of absolutely perfect rugby.

Pleasingly however Wales didn't cow to the towering scoreline, and nilled the All Blacks from there. Producing two late tries of their own to finish the game the stronger of the two sides. Firstly Dan Biggar attacked the line, combining clever footwork, and a perfectly timed pass to put the simply majestic Liam Williams through a hole, and he finished to get the try he so strongly deserved. Lastly as the Welsh defence refused to crack under Kiwi pressure, Roberts intercepted an attempted chip kick, and broke away. With 75 minutes under his belt and being chased by the electric Barrett he was never going to make it alone, but support from Priestland and Jonathan Davies allowed Wales to create a respectable scoreline in the end. It should be said that Jonathan Davies' intervention for that try went viral over the weekend, producing a piston like fend putting the 16-stone Tamanivalu through the floor and remind people just why he is a Lion's test centre.

Jonathan Davies produced a cataclysmic hand-off to score the final try of the match (Huw Evans Photography)

Overall it was a similar performance to the 1st test. Wales ultra competitive for the first 40, but a 15 minute period from the All Blacks enough to see off the challenge. The biggest difference being that this time Wales were the team to finish stronger and prove that they aren't a team that can only play up to 65 minutes. There is still much work to be done, but it's not all doom and gloom before the final test. So where do Wales stand for the final test in Dunedin?

Negatives

Lineout

It was the same issue a week ago, and it wasn't really fixed this time around. New Zealand were once again able to disrupt the Wales lineout with ease, stealing ball, or giving Rhys Webb problematic possession to attack with. Although New Zealand's excellence and atheltisicm in the lineout wasn't the only issue, more than once there was more timing or throwing leading to the turn over of possession. The most notable of these was the lineout which lead to the Kiwi's final try. After a successful lineout not 30 seconds earlier, which a good drive was formed from, Wales kicked to the corner again sensing a chance to get back in the game. Scott Baldwin had recently come on and seemed to fail connecting with his jumper. Throwing too early and watching the ball sail clearly over the still in mid-lift Bradley Davies. It seemed to show a distinct lack of practice between the set of players as hooker and jumper didn't work in unison to secure possession, and it wasn't as if New
Zealand put them under pressure as they stayed on the ground ready to disrupt the drive. 

The lineout has been a weakness.

It's become a feature of Wales' performance in recent months that they fail to complete set piece - especially in the attacking third. Wales may be playing an more expansive and exciting brand of rugby which is leading to multiple tries - 3 for the past two matches - but without the territory upon which they can use it, they will struggle to put teams away. Considering that the both the first and last try of the game killing period came from turnovers at a lineout in the New Zealand half, you have to think what would have happened if Wales had secured that ball. The dam wouldn't of been cracked to start with, and then the flood would have been stalled, potentially actually have started to be turned back. That last try was a clear 14 point swing, and when you consider the final result was a 14 point difference, it could have made the world of difference.

Ken Owens has been a critical player in play around the field and does look the more stable of the two hookers at the set piece, he should start again, but something needs to be done, and quickly about the lineout. It might be worth Wales investing in someone like England's Steve Borthwick as a lineout maestro, to support Robin McBryde (who has just signed a contract extension to the next World Cup).

Tackling

Compared to the 1st Test where Wales' primary defensive problem was the excellent Aaron Cruden able to beat the hard blitz with an array of kicks and miss passes, this time the system worked well and kept New Zealand under wraps. Only really scoring tries from counter attack, and through Read's excellent offloading skills, and one piece of magic from Aaron Smith in the first half - which did break the Edwards blitz system, but just the once.

This week instead the flaw that was unearthed was Wales players falling off the one-on-one tackles. The two biggest exponents of this problem were the two Welsh centres, both were valiant in attack, but shockingly exposed against the footwork of Barrett and co. Twice the Welsh centres were cut in two as Barrett sliced between them, both times leading to important tries. This is not something that should be happening in international rugby, the channel between the 12 and 13 should be a steel wall where no attacker passes. In the past this has been the case with Roberts and Davies under Edwards, even with Davies being the primary hard blitzer the space between the two was marshalled and protected. 

It's not often Roberts misses a tackle.

It is almost unbelievable at times watching Jamie Roberts missing tackles, it's almost as rare as Jonny Wilkinson missing a kick at goal, or Ronaldo letting someone else take a free-kick. He has been the rock upon which the Welsh defence has produced incredibly displays and won tournaments. The players around him would just assume he would make his tackles and nothing would break his channel, but it looked fragile last weekend. Jonathan Davies' was similarly at fault at times, and
something needs to be done. There is a strong possibility that Jamie Roberts could miss the final test due to concussion protocol after a titanic clash of heads against Fekitoa, and Scott Williams will slot right in. Ideally I think Roberts should stay, Scott Williams had a terrible game against the Chiefs and also Roberts is responsible for the organisation of the back-line in defence and Wales could really miss that against a New Zealand side going for the white-wash.

You do have to wonder why Wales are starting to fall off defensively after being so clinical and strong in defence for years. It begs the thought that Wales have sacrificed defensive drill time in order to work on attack and ball skills. If so the attacking rewards are undeniable, but there needs to be a balance struck, as Shaun Edwards must be begging for time to fix the crumbling defence.

Support

The biggest difference in attack between the two teams was being able to put away line break chances. This was largely due to the support lines run by those without the ball. With New Zealand it was clear to see, if one player made a break three or four players would be within ten meters of him giving him all sorts of options with which to beat the second line and cover defence. It was instinctive and proactive thought which meant players believed their teammates would bust through and they could flood after them. Meanwhile for the men in red, it was a case of other players would have to react to their teammate's break. There were two particular moments which come to mind for this.

One being the eventual final try for Jonathan Davies, Roberts "intercepted" the ball and powered up field, eventually being caught on the New Zealand 22. He did exceptionally to stay on his feet and allow support time to arrive in the form of Rhys Priestland and eventually Davies and Hallam Amos. But Roberts had to fight off the attentions of Barrett for a good five seconds before he had an option to offload to. If it had been the other way around the All Blacks probably would have had the person on hand to pass to before contact was made. 

The other instance actually occurred early in the second half, and was the first real opportunity for Wales to strike. Warburton blitzed perfectly and intercepted a pass, no one would have expected the flanker to go 80 meters especially being chased by three New Zealand backs. However he only had one man with him on his desperate charge, the ever present Talupe Faletau. The pass from Warburton didn't stick, but Faletau still would have had a lot of work to do if he did catch it, Naholo was near by and they were still 40 odd meters out. But even at that point there were no other red shirts within 20-30 meters, which allowed New Zealand to form a counter attack of their own. Again you feel if the shoe had been on the other foot the All Black player would have had at least one player on each shoulder with which to pass to, such that even if a tackle was made the ball would be recycled. 

It's certainly not an easy fix, nothing that can be worked on in a week like the other two problems. It is something that should - and hopefully will - be developed over time, with this new system of attack. There are certain players in the Wales set up who are already very good at turning up after a line break to capitalise on it: Rhys Webb, Taulupe Faletau, Liam Williams are all on tour at the moment; and the blue capped Justin Tipuric is another wonderful support runner. These are the sort of players that when on the field will try their hardest to be in support of the man through the hole, Rhys Webb especially has a knack for scoring tries this way - just look at his try in the 1st Test. Tipuric is maybe a bit of a long shot with the captain Warburton in possession of the 7 shirt, but it's worth a thought.

One the left is a Wales quick turnover, on the right is a All Black one. Look at the difference in available support.

Positives

Attacking Style

Once again praise has to be put on the new style of attack Wales are playing, it is the perfect blend of the age old hard running; and the width and handling that dominated the World Cup 9 months ago. It was directly responsible for two of Wales' tries, the first - for Alun Wyn Jones - was an almost pin point example of the new style. Started with two tight hard runs from Roberts and Davies, the ball being given to Davies who made the break. From then it was a combination of forward carries, forward's passing it to backs and finished with an executed overlap scored by a forward in the wide position. Wales have scored five tries in two games against the world champions, this is clearly the way forward for Wales in the future.

Liam Williams has been outstanding all tour
(Huw Evans Photography)

The player who is thriving the most under this style is without a doubt the self styled "bomb-diffuser" Liam Williams. He is absolutely back to his best, no matter what position he's been asked to fill. At fullback in the first test he was the equal to the world class Ben Smith, for the second test shifted to wing he was the best back-three player on the pitch. Uncompromising in defence, adventurous in
attack, and utterly committed to the high ball. It takes a lot for the New Zealand public to praise an opposition player, but Liam Williams is receiving all of the plaudits. He is simply undropable for the foreseeable future, and Gatland has to fit him in, even with Halfpenny's heroic return on the weekend for Toulon. 

One noteable absence from the Welsh attack this week was the kick and chase system. It barely featured in the first test beyond two instances in the first half, but I can't remember a moment in the 2nd Test where Biggar hoisted a contestable kick up for players to chase. Whether that is a clear change in style, or whether a tactical plan to avoid and risk of a kick counter it is an interesting development none the less.

Defence

Morarity has been good
(Huw Evans Photography)

This seems a bit weird to praise when Wales leaked 5 tries again, and I have chastised the tackling already. But the system looked better this time around. The "Edwards' Blitz" only really unpicked in one moment - that pass by Aaron Smith - and instead the tries for the Kiwi's coming largely from offloads and turnovers which disrupted the formation of the defensive line. Don't get me wrong these wrinkles need to be ironed out, but in general play New Zealand struggled to unpick the Welsh defence at the ease which they did under Cruden's control in the first test. 

The breakdown defence was similarly fantastic, Ross Morarity was superb filling in for Lydiate. He was aggressive in defence with a superb completion rate too, combine that with the amount of brutal ball carrying he did you have to praise his work ethic and whether Lydiate will get his place back.

Commitment & Fitness

Paul Stridgeon's fitness
work starting to pay
off.

We can't avoid talking about the fact that for the first time in a long time Wales finished stronger than New Zealand. So often it has been New Zealand rampaging to the final whistle, this time it was Wales scoring two tries in the final 10 minutes to give New Zealand something to think about. After the 14 minute period of New Zealand black-magic most teams would have buckled under the assault and watched on as the game became a blood bath. Instead Wales found a way to stem the tide and put the All Blacks under pressure and capitalise themselves.

It goes to show that Wales have got the ability to finish a game, all they need to do now is be close enough to their opponent to make that fitness, drive, willpower and skills under tiredness count and
claim the victory. This is easier said than done, Wales haven't put a complete 80 minute performance together in a long time, the last clear memory would be the South Africa victory at the Millennium Stadium a few years ago. But if they can find that in themselves again they are capable of beating anyone in the world. 

Team for the 3rd Test v New Zealand

15 - Gareth Anscombe

14 - Liam Williams

13 - Jonathan Davies

12 - Jamie Roberts (assuming fit to play)

11 - Hallam Amos

10 - Dan Biggar

9 - Rhys Webb

1 - Rob Evans

2 - Ken Owens

3 - Samson Lee

4 - Luke Charteris

5 - Alun Wyn Jones

6 - Ross Moriarty

7 - Sam Warburton (C)

8 - Talupe Faletau

16 - Scott Baldwin

17 - Aaron Jarvis

18 - Tomas Francis

19 - Jake Ball

20 - Ellis Jenkins

21 - Gareth Davies

22 - Rhys Patchell

23 - Scott Williams (Tyler Morgan if no Jamie Roberts)

Anscombe comes in at fullback for me.

The team pretty much picks itself. Assuming Jamie Roberts passes concussion protocol tests he should start again, he has worked well in the new attack, and is important to the defence even if he has struggle in tackles recently. Scott Williams is a capable deputy but never done enough to convince me or coaches he should be starting. Hallam Amos again has struggled to produce anything in the team, but hasn't done anything that should merit his exclusion either, still one of the best finishers Wales have and until the return of Halfpenny Wales' best person to fill in. Anscombe
replaces Patchell - who is unlucky - purely on experience and a little on ability, his Super Rugby foundation could and should work excellently in the new Wales sytem. Patchell played excellently and so makes the bench over Priestland, but more as fullback cover than fly-half.

In the pack Luke Charteris after starting test two, starts again in the hope the lineout works a little better with him in it, and he also puts the worry into the opposition head that their lineout mauls will not be effective. Ken Owens starts as discussed, in attack he is excellent, at set piece he has performed better than Baldwin in recent weeks too. Gethin Jenkins' calf injury forces him out of the side, and it is a huge loss to the breakdown defence, as he has been superb all over the field. Rob Evans will be confident though after a breakthrough 6 Nations, and he adds another dynamic ball carrier to help out Owens and Moriarty. 

Jenkins will be missed in the final test.

The bench again is the same as before (excluding injuries), Bradley Davies' ball carrying will be missed, but Jake Ball has proven his force in the enforcer role before and will relish the chance. Aaron Jarvis is more a tight-head by trade but capable to slot in on the left of the scrum, he is no veteran Paul James, but he gets his chance through injury. Ellis Jenkins adds support, and breakdown nous which could prove key at the end of the game, although needs time to show his ability. Gareth Davies got no chance to show what he can do in the second test, but is still the favourite second choice at scrum half. Scott Williams fills the last bench position maybe using his pace and footwork to capitalise on the space around at the end of the game. 

Wales are nearly there in terms of a complete performance, the number one thing they need is a set piece in the attacking third, able to get the ball from which they can attack. The defence will come back, and by limiting the chance of counter attack means the opposition will score less anyway.

3rd Test Prediction: New Zealand by 5-10.