RWC Pool B: Decided in Game One

In the second of our summaries of the World Cup groups, we see the current champions faced with a hard fight to top their pool. This group will more than likely be decided in Game One of the pool, on Day Two of the Championship, when New Zealand and South Africa face off in Yokohama. Elsewhere Italy look most likely to gain automatic qualification for 2023, while Canada and Namibia will duke it out to avoid the dishonour of last place. So what are the key points for each team ahead of Japan?

Four years ago New Zealand completed the first-ever back-to-back championship.
They're under more pressure than ever this time around.

1st: New Zealand - 19 points

For the first time in a long time, New Zealand, are no longer the outright "favourites" for the World Cup. After an unconvincing twelve months, at best, the All Blacks lost their #1 World Ranking (for about a week), suffering defeats against Ireland, and their Tasman rivals, as well as a home draw against South Africa. There has been a lot of uncertainty around team selection, due to injuries and fluctuations in form, Steve Hansen has struggled to develop combinations to replace all those lost in 2015. The centre partnership remains a question still, the back row spent years looking for a Kaino replacement only to switch to twin "opensides" in August. Even the back three, so often a strength for the All Blacks, now looks quite bare of form and/or experience.

Will Mo'unga and Barrett fully click at the World Cup?

All of that being said, they still came out against Australia in Auckland, with a dominant performance, keeping the Aussie's from scoring, and racking up their own vindictive score in the process. They are leaving it late to do, but they have built a new attacking structure, designed to beat the blitz defence that's been causing them issues for two years. It's still a work in progress, Mo'unga and Barrett still finding their vibe. Of course, this wasn't helped by losing McKenzie at the start of the season.

They're still a ridiculously talented team, with plenty of depth in the 31-man squad. The injured Retalick will be an issue for the South Africa game, but they'll make the quarter-finals without him, and probably just squeak by South Africa to top the group. The rest of the games in the pool will serve as opportunity to further bed in combinations that Hansen wants for the knockout stages, and should provide the full five points.

2nd: South Africa - 16 points

Jantijes burst on to the Test scene in a hell of a fashion.

Best place to start for South Africa is this, they won the Rugby Championship. They looked assured of themselves throughout the tournament, confident in their systems, simply superb at the set piece, and more than capable of cutting open defences with their talented backline. In short, they looked good, very good. A lot stronger than they've looked for a long time, Erasmus has done a remarkable job in such a short time, and they will have a great chance of going all the way in Japan.

Their style is quite traditional, big ball carriers going off fly-half and scrum-half, getting over the gain-line and pushing the defence backwards, until an opportunity presents itself to unleash their fast and fancy back three. The thing that sets them apart is their ability to exploit the blindside, something will keep defence coaches up at night, as the Springbok scrum-half work just enough space, and the right players into the narrow channel to exploit less switched on defenders. Throw in a dominant kicking game, and a set-piece which is more steady than Table Mountain, and you've got strong contenders for the trophy.

As with New Zealand, they know their route through the knockout stages is decided in the opening game. They have it in them to beat the All Blacks, they've shown that, but with it all on the line I just expect New Zealand to find the edge. Don't be surprised if they use that as fuel to surmount a charge to the final though.

3rd: Italy - 10 points

I kind of feel bad for Italy this year, they know that they have no hope of making the quarter-finals, but at the same time, they are significantly better than the other two teams in the pool. They'll still play every game with your typical Italian passion, but they are probably under no illusions as to what they can achieve.

Italy have begun to develop as a nation, huge credit to the work done by Conor O'Shea to turn not just the first team around but the entire player pathway. While results haven't gone their way recently, the foundations are finally set up for Italy to cross the bridge from Tier Two, to Tier One. The attacking systems are starting to come together too, they possess a number of talented backs, who if given some space can create tries, watch out for the hot-stepper Minozzi especially. In addition, they have begun to unearth some real gems in the back row who can go toe-to-toe with the big boys, finally some support for the legendary Sergio Parisse.

Passion and fury have fuelled Italian rugby for years, O'Shea has been trying to install a game plan.

They're still flawed, their defence is often too porous, the centres lacking strong communication, their lineout remains suspect and most worrying has been the steady decline of their scrum over the last few years. It used to be the heart of the Italian game, but as they attempted to evolve they seem to have lost that foundation piece.

As for results expect a proper dichotomy, galavant but disappointing losses against New Zealand and South Africa will be balanced with comfortable wins over Canada and Namibia. Middle of the pack and qualification for 2022 should be assured.

4th: Canada - 4 points

Sadly, Canada have been a team in decline in the last few years. At the last World Cup, they put together a decent showing, playing very entertaining rugby in which they scored a couple of beautiful tries. Yet despite that entertainment value, they finished bottom of their group, with only two bonus points to show for their efforts. Due to such a poor finish, even finishing below Romania

Tyler Adron was fantastic in Super Rugby this year.

(who haven't made the 2019 tournament), they have suffered a further drop in performance levels. In their warm-up tournament - The Pacific Nations Cup - they finished dead last, being outclassed by the likes of the United States and Fiji, in heavy defeats.

Canada possess some talented players, but not nearly enough to pose any threat to the top three in this pool. The game against Namibia on the 13th of October will be their target game, in an effort to avoid finishing last again. I think they will edge a nervous affair, a game which will hinge on individual errors and penalty count more than anything.

5th: Namibia - 1 point

Namibia are everyone's favourite also-rans, they have been at every World Cup since 1999, and yet have failed to record a win in any of them. They are a team devoid of any sort of standing in club rugby, ever since the legendary Jacques Burger retired, and as such struggle to stand up to the big boys of the world.

They play a very conservative game, simple rugby to cut down on errors, and they are a team that will look to put points on the board any which way. So expect plenty of drop goals from their fly-half, that's all I'm saying. Last time out, in 2015 they achieved the holy grail, avoiding zero points in the group stages, with an agonizing one-point defeat to Georgia, in 2019 they will look to go one better and find their first win. Their final game against Canada will be the game to win, both sides will be hoping to make it there without too many tired or injured players, Canada have the edge, but it is a close-run thing.

You can't do anything but support Namibia in every game they play, they embody the true spirit of rugby.