We're at the halfway stage of the World Cup Pool reviews, time for number three. When the pools were drawn, many said this looked like the "Pool of Death". However come 2019 the top slot looks like a foregone conclusion, while France and Argentina will be slogging it out to reach the quarter-finals. Not to mention two Pacific Nations Cup sides who are looking to make a statement this year.
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| Four years ago England crashed out after losing against two Tier One nations in the groups. Could it happen again, or will they rise to the challenge of Japan? |
What a difference a year makes for England. 2018 was tough for England under Eddie Jones, suffering their worst finish in Six Nations history. Flip to 2019 and they were - arguably - the most dominant team in the championship, only undone by a stubborn Welsh team in Cardiff. What has been the biggest difference is England have finally been able to get everyone they want on the pitch, and England now appear to have an attacking system. Something they didn't for a long time.
The heart of their team is their ball carriers. Tuilagi, the Vunipolas, Sinckler, and Itoje provide a central core to a blitzkrieg assault which few defensive lines can handle. If one of them doesn't batter you down, the one that's coming in the next couple of seconds will. Once you're on the back foot and scrambling for your life, that's when the backline finishes the job. A combination of two playmakers spread the ball to the wide channels, where the raw speed of Daly, May and Watson exploit retreating defenders. It's both simple, and brilliant, at the same time. I have to hand it to Eddie Jones for building a power game beyond anything we've witnessed before. It's backed up by a rock-steady set-piece which allows Manu and Billy to dominate the first phase and a fearless kicking game which allows them to dominate territory, further squeezing the opposition.
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| A fully fit Tuliagi has made a huge difference to England. |
Are there flaws? For sure. Chief amongst which being that while Plan A is pretty damn good, there is no Plan B. Against Wales in Cardiff, England spent 80 minutes trying to use the same game plan, despite it appearing to have little effect on the Welsh. In a similar vein it means that should a couple of their central five ball carriers be off the pitch they can struggle to dominate physically and again the gameplan becomes ineffectual. Eddie Jones is a man with many secrets, so it wouldn't surprise me if another system appears during the World Cup, but if it doesn't they could be exposed in the knockout stages.
A different issue is that they rarely maintain momentum after the early assault. In the early Eddie years, England were fantastic in the final twenty minutes of games. Recently, they've switched that to the first twenty. Neither scenario is ideal and they will need to find a complete performance at least twice in the knock out stages. Fortunately, they are comfortably the best team in Pool C and can use these four games to sort out these kinks. They'll be able to keep players fresh and fit and will be in good standing for the quarter-finals.
2nd: France - 14 points
Honestly, I'm surprised by my own expectations for France here, for a while France haven't even been a shadow of their former selves, they've been limp and frustrating. France used to define themselves on two things. A forward pack so gritty that they'd happily use you as a plough for the field, and a backline so delightfully brilliant they'd practically dance over that ploughed turf. It's been a long time since we've seen either of though, but recently we've seen a minor renaissance.
Let's start with the fancy backs, France have always had good scrum-halves, but right now they are blessed with three of them who can all light up a game in their own way. At fly-half they've got a confident controller in Lopez, and a youthful game breaker in Ntamack. If the French halfbacks can link up they can take over a game and unleash the raw talent out wide. Fickou and Fofana in the centres are pure French class, there's the power of Raka and Vatakawa, and the dancing feet of Guitoune and Ramos. To top it all off, they've got Damien Penaud. He combines pace, power and poise in a beautiful blend which allows him to play in the centres and on the wing. He could easily be the top try scorer at this World Cup.
The pack is still a bit more of a work in progress, but it's on an upward trend. Lead by their fearless captain Guirado they should be more than capable of standing up to a diminished Puma's pack. With ball carriers like Picamoles, Alldritt, and Vahaamahina they are more than capable of overpowering the opposition.
Overall I can't see France turning over England, although if England play like they did against Scotland who knows. As such, Argentina first up is the big game they will target, and should have enough firepower to succeed. Win that and quarter-finals are all but secured, Tonga and USA might put on a minor scare, but bonus-point victories should be expected, then again this is France.
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| Dupont has taken to the test scene with ease, and was fantastic in the Six Nations. |
The pack is still a bit more of a work in progress, but it's on an upward trend. Lead by their fearless captain Guirado they should be more than capable of standing up to a diminished Puma's pack. With ball carriers like Picamoles, Alldritt, and Vahaamahina they are more than capable of overpowering the opposition.
Overall I can't see France turning over England, although if England play like they did against Scotland who knows. As such, Argentina first up is the big game they will target, and should have enough firepower to succeed. Win that and quarter-finals are all but secured, Tonga and USA might put on a minor scare, but bonus-point victories should be expected, then again this is France.
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| Penaud has been nothing short of fantastic for France this year, if he can maintain that momentum, France could surprise a few people in Japan. |
3rd: Argentina - 11 points
Third place, not even in the quarter-finals, it's a dramatic fall for Los Pumas since the 2015 World Cup. Saying that, based on recent performances, especially in the last 12-18 months, I can't put them above a French team which is trending in a positive direction. Argentina have lost a lot of what made them truely entertaining four years ago.
Argentina used to be a southern hemisphere equivalent of classic France. An aggressive pack
who loved to dominate at the scrum, providing a platform for a backline full of dancing feet and care free running. Sadly this has been greatly diminished, especially the strength of their scrum. It would have been a harrowing sight for any die-hard Argentine fan to see how badly South Africa manhandled their scrum during the Rugby Championship. Even as a neutral is was painful to watch. With the death of their set-piece, so has the exuberant running rugby died with it. It's very hard to find and exploit holes in defence without having stable front-foot ball to work with.
There is some hope for Argentina, the majority of their squad play for the Jaguares, who made the Super Rugby final this year, so they obviously possess plenty of talent. And honestly, only the lack of a fly-half able of controlling a game cost them the final against the Crusaders. Marios Ledesma - the head coach - needs to tap into what took the club side so far. The talent they possess should not be overlooked, Creevy is a proven leader, Matera is a ball carrier of few peers, and Lavini is the definition of a second row "enforcer". In the backline, there's so much talent that some of it has had to be left behind, but one potential breakout player is Delguy who is brilliant at finishing any counter-attacking tries that the likes of Tuculet and Boffelli can produce.
Argentina know they need to rediscover the form that took them to the semi-finals last time out, otherwise, they could be facing an ignominious ejection in the group stages. USA and Tonga will be put away with ease, France will be the critical game, and if they win that they will go all out against England. On current form, neither win looks likely, but anything can happen.
Argentina used to be a southern hemisphere equivalent of classic France. An aggressive pack
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| New captain, Matera, will drag the Pumas on his own back if that's what's required. |
There is some hope for Argentina, the majority of their squad play for the Jaguares, who made the Super Rugby final this year, so they obviously possess plenty of talent. And honestly, only the lack of a fly-half able of controlling a game cost them the final against the Crusaders. Marios Ledesma - the head coach - needs to tap into what took the club side so far. The talent they possess should not be overlooked, Creevy is a proven leader, Matera is a ball carrier of few peers, and Lavini is the definition of a second row "enforcer". In the backline, there's so much talent that some of it has had to be left behind, but one potential breakout player is Delguy who is brilliant at finishing any counter-attacking tries that the likes of Tuculet and Boffelli can produce.
Argentina know they need to rediscover the form that took them to the semi-finals last time out, otherwise, they could be facing an ignominious ejection in the group stages. USA and Tonga will be put away with ease, France will be the critical game, and if they win that they will go all out against England. On current form, neither win looks likely, but anything can happen.
4th: USA - 5 points
The USA could, so easily, be one of the global powerhouses of rugby. The States invest more in sport than any other nation on earth, there's a proven appetite for rugby thanks to 7's, and most of all American Football leaves dozens of talented, athletic players behind every year who could be converted to the physical demands of rugby. Despite this untapped gold mine, they continue to be perennial Tier Two "almosts".
Every four years the American's turn up to a World Cup, put in some decent performances and then go home. Never threatening the big boys too much, also never really looking uncomfortable or overawed. This year doesn't promise to be much different, although that's no fault of the team itself, just the nature of the stacked pool they find themselves in. Three tier-one nations is a tall order, and Tonga are not easy opponents either.
The team possesses a decent level of talent, perhaps none more so than Taufete'e, who is an all-action hooker with a surprising try-scoring record for a member of the front row union. At fly-half, AJ McGinty has both PRO12 and English Premiership experience and should provide a calm hand on the tiller with a decent kicking game. Experience is provided by Blaine Scully who has embodied America for years. The loss of Samu Manoa to retirement cannot be overlooked, he was a dominant player who was a central ball carrier and defender for them.
They aren't going to threaten for the knockouts, or third place, realistically, but expect them to make France or Argentina sweat. So the shoot out with their Pacific Nations rivals Tonga will be the one that matters. I think the USA are slightly better built, and so should be able to control the passion of Tonga enough to win. I also wouldn't put it past them to put France under pressure in their game and find a bonus point there.
Every four years the American's turn up to a World Cup, put in some decent performances and then go home. Never threatening the big boys too much, also never really looking uncomfortable or overawed. This year doesn't promise to be much different, although that's no fault of the team itself, just the nature of the stacked pool they find themselves in. Three tier-one nations is a tall order, and Tonga are not easy opponents either.
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| Taufete'e has scored 15 tries in 22 tests. And will be a focal point for the Eagles in Japan. |
They aren't going to threaten for the knockouts, or third place, realistically, but expect them to make France or Argentina sweat. So the shoot out with their Pacific Nations rivals Tonga will be the one that matters. I think the USA are slightly better built, and so should be able to control the passion of Tonga enough to win. I also wouldn't put it past them to put France under pressure in their game and find a bonus point there.
5th: Tonga - 1 point
I feel so bad putting Tonga here, but someone has to finish last in this pool. Tonga are better, a lot better, than both Namibia and Russia (last place in Pool A and Pool B), and Uruguay, and yet will end up in the same heartbreaking position in their pool as them.
Tonga have got talent, like any Pacific Island Nation, with players dotted in professional teams all over the world. None more so than Newcastle Falcon's star scrum-half Takulua. This pocket dynamo lit up the English Premiership last season, scoring wonder tries, controlling play, and kicking goals. He literally did it all to try and keep the Falcons out of relegation. Expect him to have to try and attempt similar heroics for Tonga. His support cast contains (soon to be) Scarlets lock Sam Lousi, an experienced Super Rugby campaigner who can dominate a lineout; captain Siale Piatau who will act as the glue in midfield, and Leicester Tigers magician Telusa Veainu will dance through defences with hypnotic footwork.
Discount Tonga at your peril, France and Argentina will have to be switched on to not be embarrassed. Tonga know their best chance of not finishing last is beating the United States, if we go off finishing standings in the Pacific Nations Cup then Tonga will come out second best, but honestly, it literally could go either way. More recently we've seen Tonga get comprehensively overturned by the All Blacks, which will prove a major worry for the island nation before the tournament begins.
Tonga have got talent, like any Pacific Island Nation, with players dotted in professional teams all over the world. None more so than Newcastle Falcon's star scrum-half Takulua. This pocket dynamo lit up the English Premiership last season, scoring wonder tries, controlling play, and kicking goals. He literally did it all to try and keep the Falcons out of relegation. Expect him to have to try and attempt similar heroics for Tonga. His support cast contains (soon to be) Scarlets lock Sam Lousi, an experienced Super Rugby campaigner who can dominate a lineout; captain Siale Piatau who will act as the glue in midfield, and Leicester Tigers magician Telusa Veainu will dance through defences with hypnotic footwork.
Discount Tonga at your peril, France and Argentina will have to be switched on to not be embarrassed. Tonga know their best chance of not finishing last is beating the United States, if we go off finishing standings in the Pacific Nations Cup then Tonga will come out second best, but honestly, it literally could go either way. More recently we've seen Tonga get comprehensively overturned by the All Blacks, which will prove a major worry for the island nation before the tournament begins.
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| Tonga will arrive in Japan full of passion, but recent results do not inspire a lot of confidence. |
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