RWC Pool D: Toughest of the lot

And we finally reach the best pool of the lot (not biased I swear), with just over a week to go till it all kicks off. This has the look of a traditional Rugby World Cup pool. There are two front runners who will be pushing each other for top seed, along with a couple of Tier Two sides who will have eyes on causing a significant upset, and then finally a minnow to make up the numbers. A number of games could go any which way in this pool, but who will come out on top?

Wales and Australia have gone toe-to-toe for years, Wales finally got a win last November.

1st: Australia - 19 points

If you'd asked me three months ago who would top this pool it wouldn't have been Australia. They'd looked average at best during the November tests, just lost their "best" player due to political controversy, and had been soundly beaten by South Africa. Then one game changed all that. The way they convincingly put New Zealand to the sword was scary as a Welsh fan. It was a physical domination, twinned with excellent skilful application of their game plan. If that's the Australia team that turns up at the World Cup they could be a dark-horse for the trophy. Of course, temper those expectations, because a week later New Zealand took revenge and put on a similar scoreline.

Australia on song, can run through most teams.

The Wallabies attack like few other teams in world rugby, preferring to still have their fly-half operate as the first receiver, and make the decisions, rather than behind a pod of forwards. It means the Australian attacking line is much closer to the onrushing defence. In a world where most teams are trying to put distance between blitz defenders and their playmakers, Australia have gone the other way. It's risky, but when it works it can create monumental line breaks turning tiny dog legs in the blitz into gaping holes. When it doesn't work, however, ball carriers are often caught man and ball and the gain line battle lost. What made it work against the All Blacks in Perth, was that their scrum-half forced defenders to hesitate in their rush but running with the ball a huge number of times, so their wider playmakers had more time on the ball. This offence will look good against most teams in this pool, where it could struggle is against Wales, who's blitz defence is one of the best in the world, and containa many physical tacklers who will look to kill moves.

The set-piece is stable, even if not a frightening weapon, which provides decent enough possession for the likes of Beale, Hodge and the crash ball Kerevi. However their lineout has looked suspect on occasion when the first choice locks are unavailable, and Wales have developed a very good turnover rate at lineout so they will have to keep an eye on that. The defence is nothing to write home about and can look fragile near the touchlines, but it's not a massive flaw either. 

Kerevi will be key to Australia's success.

Results against Georgia and Uruguay should be foregone conclusions, Australia have more than enough firepower to put them away. Fiji could provide an entertaining opening fixture for the pool with both sides fond of attacking rugby, but I expect Australia to tighten it up enough to beat the islanders. That leaves Wales, the "decider", and while it pains me to say it I think that Australia have got a better attack and so should win the scoreboard battle, in the same way they did four years ago, to top the pool.

2nd: Wales - 14 points

History is on Wales' side this year, the last time a team went into a World Cup having won the Six Nations Grand Slam they won the whole thing (yes it really hasn't happened since 2003). However, the build-up to the tournament has been less than encouraging. First Ellis Jenkins suffered a set back on his recovery, and was ruled out. Then Taulupe Faletau suffered his third major injury of the season, and was also ruled out. To finish off the trifecta fly-half Gareth Anscombe ended the 19/20 season before it began with an ACL rupture. The doom and gloom had set in well by this point in the Welsh media. It was further compounded by three disappointing performances in warm up games, where Wales looked tired and uncoordinated. 

How badly will the loss of Anscombe be felt by
the Welsh attack?

Of the three injuries, the loss of Anscombe will be the most keenly felt. He had become the puppet master of the Welsh attack, directing the flow of forwards, getting strike runners into open space, and providing a delicate kicking game to further enhance the Welsh offence. Without his skills, Gatland's men have looked a bit slow and ponderous with the ball. Biggar will come in and do a great job as always, but he doesn't have the toolbox of Anscombe. I wouldn't be surprised if Gatland backs Patchell to assume the starting ten role, so Biggar can return to the controlling presence from the bench he made his own through last season.

The struggles spread further than just the attack. The scrum has been a weak spot for much of the summer, the defence too has looked considerably porous compared to the Shaun Edwards walls we expect, and a number of big-name players have looked off. It doesn't exactly build the confidence for Wales' hopes at making a run for the trophy. It could be down to the fitness regimes - famous of the Gatland reign - having taken a toll on bodies, and come to the opener against Georgia players will be refreshed. But you can be sure Gatland would have hoped for some form going to Japan.

On the upside, Wales have got a deep squad, with a number of good selection headaches to be made, so player rotation through the group stage should be great. Additionally, the fixture list has played into their hands nicely, with good spacing between, and order of, fixtures. Wales will look to Alun

Alun Wyn Jones is going to have to drag
Wales back into form.

Wyn Jones, Biggar and Ken Owens to provide the grim determination to kick start their campaign, while hoping North, Liam Williams, and Tipuric can provide a spark to ignite the attack.

Georgia first up will provide a stern test, especially at the scrum, but should be a win. Australia is next up and they'll need to find some scores to overturn the Wallabies. Fiji comes after a long break and provided Wales can keep it tight and look after the ball they should edge that to take them into the quarter-finals, before finishing with a comfortable victory against Uruguay with their reserves. Bonus points will be at a premium for this Wales team, but there should be enough victories to see them face England in the quarter-finals.

3rd: Fiji - 11 points

I want Fiji to go far, I really want Fiji to go far this year, most people do. Fiji plays rugby the way everyone wishes they could play it. It's entertaining, it's breathtaking, and on occasion, it seems physically impossible. Attacking rugby at its best, with more offloads in a half than many teams will attempt all tournament, more line breaks than some teams will see tries, and more highlight reels than you know what to do with. There is no doubt that on pure talent and skill alone there are few teams that can run with Fiji on the world stage. They will score tries from anywhere, and the very threat of their attack will keep most teams on edge for the entire game (even when they haven't got the ball).

The challenge for Fiji is whether they have got the rugby fundamentals to go along with this. It's the age-old issue with all the Pacific Island nations, due to lack of preparation time, and professional teams means that they are often outplayed when it comes to set-piece and tactical gameplay against the Tier One nations. Fiji have shown in flashes they have started to put these things in place, especially when beating France in Paris last November. They put together a Tier One nation-level performance, bringing the attack they're famous for, but blending it with a fierce defence and solid set-piece. Fiji need, to learn to temper their own enthusiasm with pragmatic approaches every so often.

Radradra is just one of many world class talents in the Fiji squad, and will pose an ever present danger
to defences with his speed and handling ability.

Fiji had a hit and miss build-up for the tournament, the loss to Japan at the start of the Pacific Nations Cup would have dampened spirits a little, but they regathered and finished strongly. The islanders will arrive in Japan with a target, and genuine belief, that they can make it to the quarter-finals. To do so they will have to beat one of Australia or Wales. They open to Australia, and might be planning on surprising the Wallabies, and stealing a momentous victory out the gate. If not they could be up against it when facing Wales, in their last game, by then the number of fixtures and short turn around could have taken its toll on the squad. Other than that expect Uruguay to be put to the sword, and in a conflict of styles with Georgia, another bonus point win as well.

4th: Georgia - 6 points

The scrummaging kings of the world turn up to Japan having been beaten comfortably by Scotland twice, and putting in an alarm call to the legendary Gorgodze to come out of retirement. They have a lot riding on this tournament and are facing an upward battle. Georgia have been trying for years to make the Six Nations open up promotion and relegation and allow them to move up in the world. The power-brokers have dragged their feet over the topic and as such Georgia have been left to rot in a competition they are clearly too good for. This World Cup presents an opportunity for them to show the world they belong in a better class of tournament.

Sadly for them, I can't see it happening. They're stuck in a pool with three class opponents who will all be fighting for the knock out stages. The set-piece domination they possess will not be enough to overturn the results, although the recent struggles of the Welsh scrum will be enticing. Georgia do

Lobzhanidze will be the fulcrum through which
Georgia will operate, experienced at a young age.

have talent elsewhere, their back row is knarled and tough, and at scrum-half, Lobzhanidze is a live wire who'll be around for years. The talent is there that puts Georgia at the top end of the Tier Two nations. 

Results-wise, the Uruguay game will be a given, the rest all depends on the size of the defeat. Given the way Scotland defeated them, I will expect Fiji to be able to win with a sizeable margin. Australia will be a similar result as well since it comes at the end of the groups. Wales could yield a surprising losing bonus point, as Georgia will have the edge at the scrum and keep the game as an arm wrestle. In the end a disappointing return for a team looking to change opinions, but the pool draw has not been kind.

 5th: Uruguay - 0 points

Oh Uruguay, I'm sorry. In a pool with two teams angling for the trophy, another who score tries from anywhere, and lastly a team which can scrummage you through the earth's crust, it's not going to be fun for the South Americans. Despite that they'll turn up with passion and effort in every game, more so than any other nation at this tournament.

Uruguay have passion like few other teams, making
 it to Japan is the proudest moment of their career

Uruguay know they're not going to win a game, they know that a losing bonus point is a slim chance
in hell as well, and despite that they will pit their hearts, lungs, guts, spleen, kidneys, and any other organ, on the line for every minute. They will never give in, and will leave every game having given their all. They will celebrate every try like it's a victory, and every try line stabe as a trophy. Fiji will remind you why you love watching rugby, but Uruguay will remind you why you love playing rugby, doing everything for the guy next to you. I'm going to enjoy watching every game for Uruguay, and not just because their kit is one of the nicest at the World Cup.

(Pool A Review)      (Pool B Review)      (Pool C Review)