England v New Zealand Preview

It's semi-final time, and the final four can sleep knowing they will make it to the last weekend in Japan. Doesn't mean they will be able to sleep as the pressure mounts further, 80 minutes away from the glory of a World Cup final can keep a man up at night. First up, on Saturday, is the current champions versus the home of the sport. Neither team had fully demonstrated their ability in the groups, but both utterly blew away their opponents in the quarters. This game promises to be full of blood, thunder, and no smaller amount of skill too. So what are the key points to consider ahead of kick-off?

Last time the two met England were robbed of the victory but a contenious offside decision. A moment
like that could swing the semi-final too.

All Black Anti Blitz Attack
For two years now, ever since the Lions tour, the Kiwi's have struggled to figure out a way to overcome the umbrella blitz defences employed by the likes of Ireland, South Africa and Wales. Intent on shutting down the pitch from the outside and forcing the attack to make something up from deep. Since then we've seen Hansen double down on the dual-playmaker strategy despite setbacks. It looked good at times, and at others, it appeared to struggle. And even the injury to Damien McKenzie didn't dissuade him from this point of view.

Aaron Smith was fundamental to the crushing of Ireland

It has finally come together in Japan, and the blueprint for beating the 13-blitz has been found. It's a threefold approach, focused on - instead of beating the defence - avoiding the defence entirely. Firstly Aaron Smith regularly chooses to attack down the blindside, loading up the narrow channel with three or four players who will either carry hard against passive defenders or utilise quick passing to get a winger in behind the defensive line. It's something the All Blacks used to do a lot, and have recently rediscovered how effective it can be.

The other two factors work hand in hand and focus on kicking the ball. New Zealand have always liked to kick the ball, despite their reputation for a running/passing team, but the method of kicking has always changed to suit the state of the game. Now they have two versions to their kicking game. One was utilised against South Africa in the group stages, they employed short kick passes to their wingers, over the head of the blitzing centre or wing. Frustrated for so long about how to get the ball into the large amount of space left by this defender, Mo'unga has decided to just put it over their head and trust his winger to get it back. Simple and effective. The other version was used to beat Ireland in the quarter-final. Wherein the All Blacks looked to kick into positions which would force the Irish to kick it back to them. It wasn't focused on getting the ball back directly from the kick, nor winning the territory battle either. No, instead the concept was to get the ball kicked into the hands of Beauden Barrett at fullback, flanked by two incredibly fast wingers, and attack the kick-chase.

Reece and Bridge have been critical to the new
attack strategy from the Kiwis.

By doing this, the Kiwi attackers don't have to face an organised blitz designed to shut down space. They instead have time to assess the options and exploit any weaknesses with sheer speed. Most teams use their fullback and fly-half to cover the backfield, splitting the pitch in half. The Kiwi's have reverted to an old school approach of a true back-three, to give them more options, and much more threat. It can leave the defensive line a little undermanned should the opposition decide to run the ball out, instead of kicking it, however, and this could be something England look to exploit.


Relentless English Pressure
England are quite unique in rugby when it comes to their game plan. Their defence is their best attacking weapon, while their attack is probably their best defensive one. By this I mean England's whole game plan is focused on forcing the opposition to make mistakes. They did it to Ireland in Dublin, Argentina in the group stages, and utterly pummelled Australia in the quarter-finals with it too.

Itoje's arrogance and sheer annoying nature is
pure England, and defines how they play.

While many teams are focused on winning the possession game, after all, you can't score without the ball, England take an alternative approach. They don't care if they have the ball or not, what they want is to be in your 22. Cause from here every mistake has that much more impact, and the mental pressure on the opponents to execute is that much greater. They will aim to frustrate every single breakdown, generally causing havoc, slowing it down, or just making it a mess for the scrum-half to clear up. Which gives their defensive line plenty of time to organise in order to rush up and smash the next ball carrier into the turf.

Similarly, in attack they are focused on stressing defences both physically and mentally. With multiple huge ball carriers running into the same area, at the same time, on the same line, causing defenders sheer panic over who to tackle and how to try and stop them. The perfect example of this is Kyle Sinckler's try against Australia last weekend, where Sinckler, Tuilagi, and Itoje all ran lines off Farrell. Australia chose two players, Farrell chose the third, and Sinckler ran in unopposed (which he looked disappointed by). But they'll do this again and again, so no matter how many times you stop it, it's going to come again, and that wears down a defence and breaks the resilience of the team who is facing it.

Sinckler's try was simplistic in its brilliance,
something only England could pull off.

Their kicking game is similarly focused on frustrating opponents and keeping the pressure on. Farrell, Daly and Slade (and Ford from the bench) all happily kick the ball in behind to the corner, even when on the attack. Just to have a lineout close to the opposition line, because from this the likes of Itoje, Curry, Kruis can get in the air and make the opponents worry about a whole other part of the game. It's non-stop, every part of your game is put under pressure, and England won't let up until the final whistle blows.

The question is can this system work against, arguably, the most mentally tough side in world rugby. The Kiwi's are a team that rarely admit defeat, and regularly find a way to overcome insurmountable pressure. They've shown this already this tournament after South Africa battered them for twenty minutes before they recovered and dominated the next twenty. It will be an interesting battle as to what breaks first, England's vice-grip or New Zealand's patience.

The "Finishers"
Over the years both of these teams have been known for the impact of their bench. Both nations have

Ford is a superb
tactical kicker.

a ridiculous amount of depth available to selectors, and can consider how they will use their replacements to change the game as it progresses. Under Eddie Jones, it's always been "The Finishers" concept, with the men on the bench tasked with upping the intensity and keeping the foot on the throat of the opponent. While New Zealand have always focused on having a bench which helps them maintain control of a game, similar players waiting to come on which don't change much, but just add fresh legs.

More recently these teams have traded places. England's replacements now look like a bench full of game managers. Just look at the 16-23 who came on against Australia, Dan Cole is a set-piece operator, as is George Kruis; Ludlam is a back row enforcer; while Heinz and Ford at halfback are excellent tactical kickers. This speaks to how England are targeting games, they want to go out get a lead and use the scoreboard to further pressure the opposition. The All Blacks meanwhile have loaded their bench with game-changers. Perenara and Sonny Bill Williams both completely change how a team operates with the ball, while Matt Todd is a turnover machine, and Dane Coles is probably the most dynamic front rower in the world. Now it's the All Blacks that are the team focused on accelerating into the final quarter and taking the game away with the ball in their hands.

It's an interesting difference between these two fantastic teams, and it will likely play a huge role in the final outcome and who makes the final.

Prediction
At this stage, it's almost impossible to call. Both teams have got important players dealing with minor injuries, both teams finally woke up into roaring form last week, and both teams know what their about. This game will likely come down to a handful of plays, and because of that I think the skill of New Zealand just edges the game in their favour. But if England can keep it an arm wrestle, they have the better goal kicker which, as France found out on Sunday, matters at this point of a tournament.