The State of Play

Japan has been eventful, hasn't it? The pool stages were extraordinary, filled with dozens of memorable moments, a couple of amazing victories, and its fair share of controversy. For me personally, this has been the best World Cup I've watched in my lifetime, from the attitude of the host nation to the moments of ridiculous skill, to the performances of the likes of Uruguay, Japan, and the Tongans.

It's been a historic World Cup from every angle, from the hosts to the number of red cards, to the weather, and much more besides. To that end, it seems highly appropriate that all four of the quarter-final match-ups have plenty of history to go with them. England and Australia is a feud as old as time; New Zealand v Ireland is a more modern titanic rivalry; Wales want revenge after the events of 2011; lastly, Japan and South Africa engage in a rematch of the "Brighton Miracle".

So who's going in on a roll, who's under prepared, and crucially who's going to make the semis?

There's plenty of history in the quarter-finals, an opportunity for teams to lay deamons to rest,
or for others to make fresh memories of victory.

England v Australia (Saturday 08:15 UK Time)
To me, nothing screams "World Cup" like England v Australia. Something about it just feels right. This one is a weird one to call though since neither team has really excelled at this tournament. Both looking undercooked through the groups, for various reasons. These are two of the world's premier superpowers and came into the tournament with an eye on the trophy, and their performances so far have been lacking.

Australia looked better with Toomua on the pitch
he should start against England.

Australia's issue mainly seems to be down to a lack of consistent selection policy, meaning that partnerships can't bed in and the offence struggles. Australia's style is high risk, high reward, playmakers get their hands on the ball as quickly as possible, and play as close to the defence as they can. Hoping that their skill and decision making stress the defence enough to allow strike runners to slice through. When it works it looks unbeatable, when it doesn't
Australia get resoundingly beaten. We saw both sides of the coin in the crunch match against Wales, with Toomua and White providing a real spark from the bench. Selection will be key for Australia's chances.

Eddie is loving having two weeks
 to prepare for Australia,
 but will it prove their downfall?

England meanwhile have almost looked deliberate in their pedestrian nature. Yes, they convincingly put the USA, Tonga, and eventually the Argentine's away but the performances were anything but convincing. England haven't made a statement in Japan yet, and that lack of true form could be an undoing. Especially when you consider they haven't played since that Argentina game, where they were a man up for the majority. Eddie Jones has said the extra week of preparation is a blessing. I'm not so convinced, training speed and match speed are very different things, and if England let Australia build momentum and confidence they could be facing an early exit.

Despite that, I think Australia are just too dysfunctional to pull this off, and England's power game - with Billy Vunipola returning - and Farrell's goal kicking should put them through to the semis.


New Zealand v Ireland (Saturday 11:15 UK Time)
Not many saw this quarter-final coming, and neither side particularly wanted it either. The last few years have served up some feisty, entertaining, games between New Zealand and Ireland, and Saturday's fixture is set to be the climax of that rivalry.

New Zealand were once again cursed by an unfortunate pool draw, given the easiest pool in the entire tournament, with the only competitive game way back in September. This means that they have strolled through their remaining games, and their preparation became even more lackadaisical with the final game against Italy being cancelled due to the typhoon. Hansen came into the World Cup with a plan to use the three easier games to allow combinations to solidify, and the new attacking system to truly ignite. That has gone, and New Zealand might be nervous facing the one team from the northern hemisphere who has consistently given them trouble in recent years.

Anton Leniert-Brown has arguably been New Zealand's best player so far, but
 the state of the centre partnership as a whole still has question marks for Hansen and co.

Ireland have been found wanting in Japan,
and will have to find themselves again.

Meanwhile, Ireland are in a worse state, they've been sub-par all tournament, perhaps best summarised by their loss to Japan. Ireland's strong and stable game plan has creaked at this championship. It couldn't beat England, who outmuscled them, before the tournament, it struggled to beat Russia, who outkicked them, and failed to beat Japan, who outran them. Overall it's been a trying couple of months, the thrashing of the Scots aside, and Schmidt will be concerned that Sexton and Murray are not dictating games they way they so often used to. There is also a question about the best back row, with players having been rotated in and out so much, with varying degrees of success, muddying the waters.

This game will likely come down to the Andy Farrell defence, which has been the blueprint for nullifying the All Blacks, versus the brand new Kiwi offence. Which will rise to the occasion? Neither team is coming into this game full of confidence, however, New Zealand have arrogance and self-belief that few others can match and will back themselves here. Ireland will be waiting yet another four years for a semi-final appearance I think.

Wales v France (Sunday 08:15 UK Time)
This game logically is a foregone conclusion, Wales have lost once to France in seven years. To put that in context, in the same time frame England have finish 5th in the Six Nations, New Zealand lost to Ireland twice, Argentina joined the Rugby Championship, Sam Warburton has captained two Lions tours and retired from the game, and France have had three different head coaches. That's a convincing record for Warren Gatland and his players.

Serin and Raka could be in line to start after some
injuries. Can they provide a spark for an
inconsistent France?

France, however, care little for previous records and performances. Completely baffling and unable to be analysed in any way shape or form they are an opposition coaches nightmare. I can't even fathom the number of different French teams we've seen this tournament alone. We've seen fluid attacking and terrible handling, we've seen dominant packs and a crumbling scrum, we've seen kicking for territory and totally aimless hoofing. I think at this point France are just accepting the chaos of their play, and being deliberately unpredictable. Being told to go out and throw the ball around, offload as much as possible and don't let the opposition settle into structures and systems. Against Wales that could prove a piece of tactical brilliance.

Wales meanwhile live in their systems. Gatland loves a gameplan, Shaun Edwards on defence has drilled his players within an inch of their life and they all know their roles. Wales have shown their ability to find a weakness of the opposition and devise a way to exploit it, there was attacking inside off lineouts against Georgia, and then the scrum-half blitz against Australia. Noticeably though there was less of this against Fiji, the team which most resemble this France side, and that could be a concern. As will the ease of which powerful runners consistently broke through the Welsh defence, no doubt Edwards has been demanding standards improve ahead of the knock-out stages.

Wales will be crossing their fingers that Jonathan
Davies is fit for this game.

The deciding factor in this game for me is the mentality of the teams. Knock out games come with an immense amount of pressure, and many teams have cracked under it in the past. France have proven to be mentally fragile and able to utterly collapse from commanding positions time and time again. Wales, however, are the opposite they have resilience, calmness to come back from being behind, and assurance to hold on to a built lead. It's that factor which swings this game in favour of the men in red.

Japan v South Africa (Sunday 11:15 UK Time)
This is going to be a firecracker of a game. Not only is the host nation through to its first-ever quarter-final, but we also get to see the return of the most memorable game from 2015. This is the game I'm most looking forward to watching this weekend, both teams have looked good in the tournament, and both teams will have a genuine belief that they can reach the next round.

Japan's dedication to training is extraordinary,
literally wading through floodwaters to prepare.

Japan. Where to start with these guys. They're simply phenomenal, there's no other word for them. The way they play rugby is unlike anything we've ever seen on the international stage. New Zealand has always been the trendsetters in world rugby, but even they can't claim to have inspired what we've seen from the men in red and white stripes. Quite simply it's a game of lethal precision at lightning speed. It's the stereotype of Japan that everything is ruthlessly efficient and runs on time. That's what Jamie Joseph has installed in the national team. The smoothness of their passing is a sight to behold, it gets the ball into space so quickly that defences have no time to react. The execution of their set-piece if mesmerising, their technique at scrum time is beautiful. They know they won't win with size alone, so they work on getting lower than seems humanly possible and anchoring to the pitch. In defence they are ferocious but precise, tackles are made with the perfect technique with crunching force. It's the complete package, and they have been the only team at the tournament who has shown that.

Kolbe is a piece of magic in a team built to dominate
up front. Will he shine against Japan's wingers?

As for South Africa, they looked great for twenty minutes against New Zealand, before the All Blacks (as they always do) unleashed ten minutes of unplayable rugby to take the game away. The Springboks then proceeded to walk all over the rest of the teams in the group, relying on their forward dominance to pave the way for some huge scorelines. Their locks are probably the best in the tournament, they are cunningly good at the breakdown with the likes of Louw, Marx, and Smith, and they possess, I think, the best fly-half in world rugby at the minute as well. Throw in the dazzling feet of Kolbe and Mapimpi out wide and you've got a great package. The set-piece is nigh on unstoppable and the defence is a brick wall that few teams will want to engage. South Africa are confident in themselves and will look to roll over the hosts.

It's going to be a clash of styles, technique over physicality and speed over strength. Honestly, I have no idea which will win, I know I want Japan to win though. The story is too good for it to end now, and I have a sneaky suspicion that it won't. I'm putting my money on Japan to win this game, stepping past South Africa much the same way they did against Ireland. It's tough though.

So there you have it, that's my thoughts on this weekends games. Let me know who you think is going to win, and why. What talking points did I miss? Who do you think will stand out for each team?