Wales v South Africa Preview

Semi-finals are tough, knowing that if you win you've got a chance for glory, lose and you're playing in a game which is pointless and painful. We've covered New Zealand v England (read that here), now it's time for the other side of the draw. Wales and South Africa meet in the knockout stages for the second consecutive World Cup. Last time South Africa stole victory against an injured ravaged Welsh side with a last-minute try. Wales have not lost to the Springboks since that fateful day at Twickenham, with four consecutive victories against various forms of the green shirted giants. But friendly games in November don't matter for much when it comes to the added pressure of knockout rugby, so what are the talking points before Sunday's do or die game?

Du Preez's late try in the corner knocked Wales out last time these two met in a World Cup.

Force meet Force

Erasmus and Gatland have developed similar
systems for their teams for this tournament.

While New Zealand and England is a clash of styles, Wales and South Africa might as well be playing themselves they're so similar. Take the back lines, both run on the engine of a live-wire box-kicking scrum-half, inside the controlling, combative presence at fly-half. Further along, the mid-field partnerships contain straight running centres with subtle hands, and a defensive blitzer at 13, even the fullbacks are both creative running players. Perhaps the only difference between the two is on the wing. This will be the point of difference for the sides, South Africa will look to get the ball into the hands of their wingers in a little bit of space from which they can utilise their incredible pace and footwork to beat covering defenders. Meanwhile, Wales will use their wingers as primary strike runners down the middle of the park, where their size and power can be utilised to get the team onto the front foot. I'm curious to see which has more impact.

Liam Williams is going to have to be on his game,
to deal with the South African kicking strategy.

In terms of playstyle, there isn't much to separate these two sides either. Both are focused on an accurate kicking game, either to compete with wingers or to make the opposition run it back at an organised kick chase. Both prefer to kick predominantly off nine and use the blindside winger to act
as primary chaser. Although what was interesting to watch was how South Africa countered this play against Japan in the quarter-finals. They had clearly come prepared for this strategy, and so any time they recovered the ball from a Japan clearance they would kick the ball back to the exact same place it had just come from, knowing that the winger would have just chased the kick. Wales could fall foul of this and will have to ensure that the backfield cover is suitably prepared for the ploy.

As for structured play again both teams operate in a similar fashion whether they have the ball or don't, apart from subtle differences. In attack they like to control the ball, use a lot of phases, and force the opposition to make a lot of tackles. Forward carries in close to the ruck, off nine, used to slowly suck in the defending players, until space opens up elsewhere. The difference between them here is that South Africa like to work the breakdown into the middle of the park so they can switch play down the blindside and catch defences napping. While Wales prefer to focus on the 15-meter channels and utilise the full width of the pitch when they do choose to open the attacking playbook.

Lukhanyo Am was a late find for this South African
side, and has proven his ability as a defender

Defence for both teams hinges on the 13-blitz through Lukhanyo Am and Jonathan Davies, and strong one-on-one head-on-head tackling which stops ball carriers on the gain-line. Both have the same weakness, in that intricate backs moves - and offloads - can critically break the defence, however, neither team possesses and attacking system designed for this and I imagine the attack coaches have been trying to find a way to beat this defence in training.  Again there are subtle differences, Wales make use of the spot-blitz at scrum-half as a free radical who can cause chaos, and South Africa also make use of their winger to aid the outside centre on the umbrella blitz to further force offences back. Both systems have their benefits, but both have their inherent risks as well.

At this point of the tournament teams have plenty of tape to review on how to beat their opponents, Wales can study New Zealand, while South Africa will have eyes on Australia and France's plays. But perhaps unique to these two they have all their own game tape to digest as well, an odd circumstance where introspection could provide the answers to beating your rival.

Breakdown Battles
While both teams relish the physical side of the game and will largely look to dominate the game with collisions, Wales will be out-sized, as every team is against South Africa, and so will have to be smart when it comes to their tackle technique. Fortunately, they have developed and mastered the choke tackle over the last few years with Alun Wyn Jones, Justin Tipuric and Ross Moriarty all excellent at keeping ball carriers upright. This will pose an intriguing challenge, since not only will they be trying to hold up mountains, but also against a team who love to engage in mauls who might relish the opportunity the Welsh defenders present them.

Tipuric loves playing South Africa, relishing the combative nature of the games.
His defensive skill set really comes to the fore.

The more conventional breakdown battle, at the ruck, also intrigues me ahead of Sunday. As mentioned both teams like to focus on the forward carries off nine, and despite the apparent safety you would think that provides to ball retention it can often lead to isolated carriers getting picked off. The defences rely on it to a certain extent, as they are happy to defend for multiple phases patiently waiting for the time the offence gets a little sloppy and the chance for a turnover presents itself. Both teams have a handful of players who have a reputation for being good over the ball, and winning penalties for their side, not only in the starting team but sitting on the bench as well. This means that the competition at the ruck will be competitive all game long, and Garces is going to have to keep a close eye on both sides throughout. Expect it to become more and more important as the game progresses as players begin to tire and the support work weakens for ball carriers.

Pollard is a highly accurate goal kicker, from any
range, and rarely cracks under pressure.

The penalty count will be critical in this game as Pollard and Biggar are both superb goalkickers, and both will punish any lapses in judgement or poor decisions. Penalties will play a big factor in this game, as they can drastically swing momentum at critical junctures. And when it comes to knock-out games momentum can mean everything.

Injury Report
Such is the nature of a tournament like this, attrition is the name of the game. Teams have to have strength in depth and be able to adapt and overcome any injuries which appear during the six weeks. The nature of that caught Wales out four years ago, where they went into the game against the Springboks with no true fullback, a first cap outside centre, and half a dozen other injuries as well.

Navidi could be a big loss to the Welsh backrow
in a physical encounter.

Wales are better prepared this time around with plenty of players with the talent to go toe-to-toe this deep in the tournament, however, in the last two weeks, alarm bells has been ringing with Wales' two best defensive players suffering injuries. Josh Navidi has been ruled out of the tournament, at a cruelly late stage, and in a game where his talents would have been useful. Jonathan Davies is slated to return, and not a moment too soon after Wales were cut to ribbons by the French out wide. His return is critical to the Shaun Edwards defence system.

South Africa are in much better shape, with the vast majority of their team completely injury-free, although super-star winger Cheslin Kolbe has been ruled out with an ankle injury. George North will be breathing a sigh of relief, as those dancing feet can make a mockery of even the tightest defences. In a game of two resolute defences, Kolbe could have been the spark of magic South Africa needed to claim victory.

Prediction
As with England and New Zealand, this game is incredibly hard to call. Even more so here due to the similarities in style between the two teams. Small facets will add up to swing this game, which team can win at the breakdown, which can win at the set-piece, and who will crack under pressure Biggar or Pollard when it comes to goal kicks. It could all come down to which team simply refuses to lose, to be honest, and if that's the case Wales have shown that of any team left in the tournament they are the most stubborn when losing.

Putting my money where my mouth is, I think South Africa have the edge, they're less beaten up, have a terrifying set-piece and the slightly longer range off the tee. But Wales have their number in recent times so who knows.